With defenses keying in on Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle has stepped up for the Timberwolves this postseason.
The Timberwolves came up short in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder put the clamps on them defensively, limiting Minnesota to 88 points. If there was a positive for the Timberwolves on the offensive end, it was Julius Randle continuing his run of playoff success by scoring 28 points and hitting five 3-pointers. With Randle balling out this postseason, let’s take a look at how it impacts his future fantasy outlook.
First season with Minnesota
Randle’s first season with the Timberwolves saw his fantasy value take a hit. Prior to this season, he had averaged at least 20.1 points and 9.2 rebounds per game in each of the last four seasons. A key was, he averaged at least 35 minutes in each of those campaigns. Now with the Timberwolves, he played only 32 minutes per game this season. That left him with averages of 18.7 points and 7.1 rebounds.
Playing alongside Anthony Edwards left Randle with a reduced scoring role. He posted just a 25.0% usage rate, which ended his streak of six straight seasons with a usage rate of at least 27.6%. He finished with a usage rate of at least 28.7% in each of the last four seasons.
While Randle saw a decline in points and rebounds, he still averaged 4.7 assists and 1.6 3-pointers per game. He also had an efficient campaign, shooting 48.5% from the field and 80.6% from the charity stripe.
Playoff push
Defenses have stepped up their efforts to slow down Edwards during the playoffs, which has forced the Timberwolves to rely more heavily on Randle. His usage rate is up a bit at 26.0%, but the biggest increase has been his logging 38 minutes per game. With more minutes and shot attempts, Randle has averaged 24.3 points over 11 playoff games. He has been even more efficient than he was during the regular season, shooting 52.2% from the field, 39.3% from behind the arc and 88.3% from the free-throw line. He has also averaged 5.5 assists and 2.2 3-pointers.
Randle’s playoff success leads to an interesting decision for him in the offseason. He has a player option for the 2025-26 campaign. If he opts out of it, he would likely be one of the more appealing free agents on the market. If he picks up the option, he should be locked in as Edwards’ top running mate for another season.
Fantasy outlook
Randle had a fantasy ADP of 55 heading into this season. He ended up being a bit of a disappointment, with his scoring and rebound contributions down. However, he did help make up for it with an efficient campaign and steady assist contributions. His fantasy value will be impacted by where he plays next season. If he remains with the Timberwolves, he should continue to have a lower usage rate compared to his days with the Knicks. However, he would still be an appealing fantasy option with a high floor because of his ability to contribute in multiple categories. If Randle were to opt out of his contract and sign with a team that has a clearer path to more shot attempts, his production could return to his peak that we saw with the Knicks.
