Jimmy Butler III is averaging 32.7 minutes per game this season and should be in your DFS lineup tonight.
Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. I am once again back to cover the NBA this year from a DFS perspective, providing strategy and player advice for every Thursday and Monday slate. It was a great season last year, where I missed out on some big wins but ended up profitable. Let’s run it back again this year, shall we?
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a four-game slate tonight, so you might have to get a little creative. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
NBA DFS core plays
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC)
- DraftKings: $10,800
- FanDuel: $11,400
We’re barely into the NBA season, and Washington is already a clear team to target. Oklahoma City not only has the highest implied team total of around 123 points, but they’re playing at home against a bottom-five defense with a top-five pace.
Washington has also allowed the most DraftKings points per game to opposing point guards, so Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in for a treat. He will be highly rostered, as he always is, but it almost feels like 50 fantasy points is his floor for today’s game. We all know my biased love for Gilgeous-Alexander, but this could be one of his best fantasy outputs all season long.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF – MIL)
- DraftKings: $12,100
- FanDuel: $12,200
To Giannis Antetokounmpo or not to Giannis Antetokounmpo? That is the question. Whether it is nobler in the mind… no, I’ll stop. Honestly, I can’t say this is one of my favorite core plays I’ve ever typed up, but it’s still Antetokounmpo. It’s more likely that he gets to 60 points than not at this point.
I will also whisper this quietly, but I’m not crazy about Victor Wembanyama tonight against Miami. Despite their fast pace of play, Miami’s defense is legit and has shown up against opposing frontcourt pieces, limiting opposing centers to the fourth-lowest fantasy point output all year. You can get away without rostering the heavy hitters in Antetokounmpo or Wembanyama, but you better hit on all your other pieces if you want to avoid stars and scrubs lineups.
NBA DFS cash game targets
Jimmy Butler III (SF – GSW)
- DraftKings: $7,600
- FanDuel: $7,500
Even as the highest-priced small forward, everyone is going to flock to playing Jimmy Butler tonight. He’s averaged around 32 minutes a game with a 22-24% usage rate. Nothing to write home about, but he’s still averaging 21 points a game and has a strong floor of 25 DraftKings points. I’m confident Butler will find his opportunities against the Bucks and get to 35 or so fantasy points.
Isaiah Hartenstein (C – OKC)
- DraftKings: $6,700
- FanDuel: $6,100
With no Chet Holmgren in the lineup, Isaiah Hartenstein didn’t have the best performance against Sacramento on Tuesday, with just four points on the floor. Still, he managed 33 DraftKings points across 31 minutes of play. That goes to show you the kind of floor you can expect from the Thunder center.
I expect him to play a minimum of 30 minutes, and a double-double is expected out of Hartenstein tonight. There aren’t many solid center options outside of Victor Wembanyama in a tougher matchup. Rostership should trickle down to the Thunder center, but it’s a play I’m riding with at sub $7,000.
NBA DFS GPP targets
LaMelo Ball (PG – CHA)
- DraftKings: $9,900
- FanDuel: $9,500
LaMelo Ball’s projected rostership is simply too low as it currently stands. Like, we all are aware he put up 85 DraftKings points against Washington, right? Obviously, any team at this point is not going to be as easy as facing the Wizards, but we’ve seen the ceiling.
Even if Ball ends up being higher owned, which he likely will be on a four-game slate, he still makes for a great GPP play as someone who might post a “gotta have it” type score.
Paolo Banchero (PF, SF – ORL)
- DraftKings: $8,800
- FanDuel: $8,700
In a similar vein, Orlando has nearly the highest implied team total on the slate. We’ve yet to see a true ceiling performance from the Magic forward, but Paolo Banchero has been playing better in recent play. Even getting over 50 points would be great at a sub-$9,000 price, which he’s done in consecutive games.
Charlotte’s defense ranks in the bottom third of the league, so despite them limiting fantasy outputs against opposing power forwards so far, I don’t think that will keep up in the way it has. Banchero is also a decent pivot option off Giannis Antetokounmpo if you want to fade him and go for a more balanced lineup. Wendell Carter Jr. might fit in this category as well as being a spend-down alternative option.
NBA DFS value plays
Julian Champagnie (SG, SF – SAS)
- DraftKings: $4,500
- FanDuel: $4,100
Be advised that this is Julian Champagnie, not Justin Champagnie. There is a big difference, and while both players are decent spend-down options, Julian is a better choice tonight. The San Antonio guard-forward not only is able to help you dabble with your lineup construction, but is set to start and play around 30 minutes.
Even facing the improved defense of Miami, this is still a big pace-up spot with how the Spurs have been playing, so the opportunity will be there. His usage leaves a bit to be desired, but at his price point on this slate, I am more than happy with the play.
Aaron Wiggins (SF, PF – OKC)
- DraftKings: $5,500
- FanDuel: $5,200
FanDuel seems behind on some value options with Aaron Wiggins and Al Horford ($5,200 vs. $3,900), so keep that in mind depending on which site you use. Despite the price bump and no longer counting as a punt play, I still like Wiggins as a value selection on both sites tonight.
In his first game without Chet Holmgren in the lineup, Wiggins managed 43 DraftKings points across 34 minutes. Now, he’s in a friendlier matchup and should post solid numbers against the Wizards’ defense. Ajay Mitchell is a fine choice as well on a banged-up Thunder team, and based on how well he’s been playing already this season.
