The Knicks’ offense and defense would take a big hit if OG Anunoby is unable to go in Game 3.
The Philadelphia 76ers came back from a 3-1 deficit against the 2 seed in the first round. So a 2-0 deficit against the 3 seed in the Eastern Conference semifinals should seem relatively manageable.
But over the last three weeks, the New York Knicks have been the best basketball team outside of Oklahoma City. And through Game 2, they’ve outscored their playoff opponents by 19.4 points per 100 possessions. The Sixers played much better in Game 2 than they did in Game 1, but still came up short, scoring an anemic 12 points on 21 possessions in the fourth quarter.
If the Sixers are to make a comeback in this series, it has to start now. Here are three things to watch for in Game 3 on Friday (7 p.m. ET, Prime Video):
1. Health questions
1. Joel Embiid — The Sixers were without Joel Embiid in Game 2, and they’re now 1-3 in the playoffs when he’s been unavailable. They’re 3-2 when he’s played, but those two losses came by a total of 71 points, so the overall numbers with him on the floor (minus-5.2 per 100 possessions) aren’t much better from those with him off the floor (minus-8.7 per 100).
Embiid had some post-up success in Game 1, but the Knicks had more success when they made him defend Jalen Brunson in the pick-and-roll, and New York scored an amazing 77 points on 48 possessions (160 per 100) in Embiid’s 25 minutes on the floor. He was listed as questionable on the initial injury report for Game 2, and it might be a case where both teams would welcome him back.
2. Mitchell Robinson — The Knicks’ backup center is listed as probable after he missed Game 2 with an illness. Ariel Hukporti gave the Knicks solid minutes off the bench on Wednesday, but a return from Robinson would be huge, especially given the consistent foul trouble for Karl-Anthony Towns. And if he does return, don’t be surprised if the Sixers foul Robinson intentionally to slow down the Knicks’ offense and/or get him off the floor.
3. OG Anunoby — More important for New York is the (questionable) status of Anunoby, who suffered a right hamstring strain in Game 2. Anunoby has had a terrific postseason, averaging 21.4 points on 62% shooting, including 21-for-39 (54%) from 3-point range. His true shooting percentage of 75.5% is, by a wide margin, the best mark among the 21 players averaging at least 20 points in the playoffs.
But Anunoby would be missed more on the other end of the floor, because, without him, the Knicks get a lot smaller on the perimeter. His minutes would be absorbed by some combination of Miles McBride (who closed Game 2 when Anunoby exited), Jordan Clarkson, Jose Alvarado and Landry Shamet. Tyrese Maxey is only 6-foot-2, but he had some success isolating against those smaller guards on Wednesday:
2. Maxey handling the blitz
In Game 1, the Knicks blitzed just three (16%) of the 19 ball-screens the Sixers set for Maxey. In Game 2, they blitzed 17 (41%) of 41.
The Sixers have scored efficiently (1.16 points per chance) when the Knicks have blitzed Maxey in this series. And all those blitzes in Game 1 is one reason why the Sixers made a season-high nine corner 3-pointers.
They also had a terrific 4-on-3 sequence that resulted in a dunk for Dominick Barlow late in the third quarter:
But the last two times Maxey was blitzed on Wednesday, he kept moving to the strong side of the floor and pitched the ball to the corner, where there was already a defender. The Knicks were able to recover and the Sixers lost their advantage:
We might see less blitzing from the Knicks if Embiid is back in the lineup on Friday. But if and when they do blitz Maxey, he should be a little quicker to get rid of the ball, so that the Sixers don’t lose those advantages, which should lead to quality shots.
3. Discrepancy in the paint
Prior to Wednesday, the Sixers were 13-1 when they made at least six more 3-pointers than their opponent, with the only loss having come in Oklahoma City. Now, they’re 13-2, because they continue to get destroyed inside by the Knicks.
Over the two games in this series, the Knicks have outscored the Sixers by 52 points (114-62) in the paint.
The Knicks have shot an amazing 57-for-82 (69.5%) in the paint, what would be the best mark for any team in any playoff series in the 30 years for which we have shot-location data. Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns are a combined 31-for-40 (77.5%) in the paint over the two games.
On the other end of the floor, the Sixers have taken only 39.9% of their shots in the paint, down from 49.6% (12th highest) in the regular season and 43.3% in the first round. Paul George has taken 29 shots over the two games, and only two (7%) of the 29 have come in the paint.
While George also has only two free throw attempts in the series, the Sixers have outscored the Knicks by 15 points (48-33) at the line. That mitigates the paint discrepancy somewhat, but to win Game 3, they’ll need to be better inside on both ends of the floor.
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John Schuhmann has covered the NBA for more than 20 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Bluesky.
