The Oklahoma City Thunder have an NBA Finals opponent: the Indiana Pacers, who eliminated the Knicks to win the East Finals.
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Here’s who our NBA.com experts are picking to win NBA Finals, presented by YouTube TV:
Steve Aschburner
• Pick: Oklahoma City
There’s a song stuck in my head as the 2025 NBA Finals near, and I’d be reluctant to reference it — it’s from “Annie, Get Your Gun” — if not for a new-millennium updating with none less than this league’s GOAT. Anything the Indiana Pacers can do, the Oklahoma City Thunder can do better.
The Pacers are deep, young and skilled? The Thunder are deeper, younger and more skilled. The Pacers are tenacious defensively and score by the bushel? The Thunder smother other teams’ offensive schemes and posted the second-fattest net rating (12.7) in league history. The Pacers are led by a pair of All-Stars in Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam? The Thunder have the Kia MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and All-NBA wing Jalen Williams.
Both have wildly exuberant fan bases, eminently respected coaches and tightly bonded cores. But one won 68 games, the other 50. One was 29-1 against the opposite conference (OKC), the other wasn’t. They are on different tiers as this begins and will be when it ends.
Brian Martin
• Pick: Oklahoma City
OKC never lost four games in any seven-game span this season and Denver came closest to accomplishing that feat … before losing to the Thunder in Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals.
Indiana has enjoyed a magical run to the Finals but has yet to face a defense like OKC’s. The Thunder led the NBA in defensive efficiency (106.6) and opponent turnover rate (16.9%) all season and have been stingier in the playoffs (104.7 and 17.7%, respectively). OKC’s ability to send waves of defenders (starting with All-Defensive Team picks Lu Dort and Jalen Williams and including Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace) to disrupt Tyrese Haliburton and Indiana’s quick-hit offense will be key.
Meanwhile, OKC has Kia MVP and scoring champ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He averaged 39 points while shooting 55.6% overall, 63.3% on 3-pointers and 91.3% of free throws against Indiana this season and leads an offense (117.1 ppg) that’s been on par with Indiana’s (117.4 ppg) all postseason.
Shaun Powell
• Pick: Oklahoma City
There’s just too much championship evidence and know-how here. The defense, the depth and the elevation of Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams mean the current league MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, doesn’t need to be perfect (and he usually comes close anyway). This team shows few flaws and doesn’t come undone from occasional lapses.
Look, I love underdog stories and crave for once-in-a-generation moments and therefore would be a sucker for a Pacers’ upset and Tyrese Haliburton getting the last “overrated” laugh. This would be more captivating than what Norman Dale and Jimmy Chitwood pulled off in “Hoosiers.” But picking the Pacers to climb those odds seems foolish. Trust what your eyes have told you for months: OKC is a monster on a mission.
John Schuhmann
• Pick: Oklahoma City
There have been two huge upsets in these playoffs and the Pacers pulled off the bigger of the two when they eliminated the Cavs in the conference semis. Their relentless ball and player movement is tough to defend, and they have some very capable defenders themselves.
But the Thunder are, simply, the best team in basketball. Their No. 1 defense has been ridiculously good in the playoffs, holding the Grizzlies, Nuggets and Wolves to 19.6, 15.0 and 4.2 fewer points per 100 possessions, respectively, than they scored in the regular season. (Take away the Game 3 blowout and the Wolves’ discrepancy would also be in the double-digits.) The Indiana offense vs. Oklahoma City defense could be the best one-end-of-the-floor matchup that we’ve seen in the Finals in long time, but the Thunder should have the edge on that end of the floor and the other.
