Western Conference Finals MVP SGA’s ascent over the last 2 seasons gives this Thunder trio an edge over the 2012 ‘Big 3.’
OKLAHOMA CITY — It’s tricky to get everyone to agree on anything yet the reviews are in about Oklahoma City and just about all seem to conclude the Thunder just caught lightning.
“Many would argue they’ve arrived at this level ahead of schedule. If that’s truly the case, the rest of the NBA is in for a potential dynasty.”
And:
“The Thunder don’t have a ton of growing left to do, but the thought that a team this good can easily get better in several areas is downright terrifying.”
And:
“They’ve blitzed to the Finals (and) this is something we all should start getting used to.”
And really, what’s not to like about the Thunder’s chances, not only in the NBA Finals, but others in the future? They have a young “Big 3” in an era where those arrangements are becoming prehistoric.
Except those crystal-ball forecasts mentioned above weren’t about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. They weren’t saluting this team headed to the 2025 Finals. They were in love with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook (both 23) and James Harden (22) and the team that went to the 2012 Finals.
Yes, those Thunder. That Big 3.
The dynasty that never developed.
Until Shai became the game’s most creative scorer and Williams elevated to All-Star status and the Thunder ripped through a 68-win season and only received a playoff test from the Nuggets, the story of this franchise was a cautionary tale from 14 years ago.
They drafted three future MVPs, had them all together just before their prime, surrounded them with capable role players and put the league on high alert, only to settle for that lone Finals appearance, some near-misses and eventually a need to reset all over again.
Those events would seemingly cripple an organization, and OKC did feel some pain, but only briefly, and now look — the Thunder are back to the big stage, with a new trio that’s perhaps stronger and longer-lasting than before.
Maybe this time those once-rosy projections will ring true, and there’s every indication of that being the case. Not only are Shai, Williams and Chet growing into a force with legs, their supporting cast — OKC’s average age is 24 — is just getting started as well.
Here’s a comparison of the two Big 3 situations and why 2025 is unlikely to turn into a duplication of 2012:
Durant, Westbrook and Harden were good, not yet great
The Thunder trio of Durant, Westbrook and Harden led OKC to its 1st NBA Finals appearance in 2012
That trio’s best asset was what it could do, not what it did. Yes, in the 2012 playoffs OKC beat the previous three Western Conference finalists in order and rallied from 0-2 to beat the Spurs — disproving that experience always trumps youth — to become the second-youngest team ever to reach the NBA Finals.
And OKC had home court advantage in the Finals against LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and the Heat.
But that’s the point — Miami had generational players in their best years. The MVP trophies for Durant, Westbrook and Harden were still a few years away. Asking them to beat Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan in the playoffs and then the Heat Big 3 in the championship was a bit ambitious.
Years later, their coach, Scott Brooks, said in hindsight: “It would be different if we had them all in their prime, but they were too young.”
Meanwhile, Shai’s ascent the last two years gives this trio an edge over those in 2012. At 26 he’s ready-made and assisted by Williams (24), who took a major leap in the West finals; and Holmgren (23), who has matured into a dependable two-way weapon.
Finally: The Pacers aren’t bringing the same amount of Hall of Fame smoke in this NBA Finals as the Heat did in 2012.
The salary cap, Harden, and lessons learned
Right after 2012, Harden and the Thunder couldn’t agree on an extension, forcing a sign-and-trade with the Rockets and reducing OKC to a Big 2.
This was caused by three events:
1. They extended Serge Ibaka before Harden. Ibaka was a very good defensive player who provided balance to the scoring Big 3, but suddenly the Thunder were in a financial pinch with Harden, since big extensions were being saved for Durant and Westbrook.
2. Ownership dragged its feet regarding a Harden extension (he wanted a $60 million max contract, which was big money then), perhaps wondering if a sixth man coming off a poor Finals performance was worth that. Which leads to …
3. Trading Harden to Houston for a package including Kevin Martin (the main piece), Jeremy Lamb and picks. The old saying is true — any trade involving a package for a single player usually favors the team getting the single player. Although, to be fair, not many teams projected Harden as an MVP and lethal scorer — just as nobody did for Shai when he was traded from the Clippers to OKC for a package. So it evened out.
Already there are rumblings about OKC being unable to keep Shai, Williams and Holmgren. Well, all three are under contract at least for the next two years so that can is being kicked down the road.
Anyway, with OKC able to pay Shai a super max this summer or next (for four or five years in length, depending on his choice), he’s unlikely to reject generational wealth worth upwards of $300 million. Same for the other two, who have yet to cash in rookie extensions.
OKC also has Alex Caruso for four more years and Isaiah Hartenstein for two. So really, it’s about OKC’s willingness to pay the luxury tax — which won’t be an issue for a few years — and keeping Lu Dort and Cason Wallace and others. Again, that’s years off, and anyway, with billions increasing in the salary cap from the media rights deals and more soon from expansion, the vault will be full.
Also, with multiple first-round picks incoming in the future, OKC can simply rejuvenate itself with cheap talent on rookie deals while investing in its Big 3.
Finally: Shai, Holmgren and Williams enjoy being teammates. If they also win titles together, it’s hard to imagine one or more of them saying no mas.
Injuries ruin everything
This is the one unpredictable — suppose one or more of the current Big 3 goes down?
OKC was actually able to absorb the loss of Harden better than expected because Durant and Westbrook went turbo almost instantly. However, Westbrook suffered a knee injury in the 2013 post-season, and Durant had foot issues and surgery in 2014-15. That erased two chances for OKC to challenge for a title.
More than finances, more than the potential of a slump, the second biggest threat to OKC failing to at least challenge for multiple championships is poor health.
As for the biggest threat? Well, it’s the same that snuffed the previous Big 3’s chances for a title …
A growing beast elsewhere
OKC GM Sam Presti has amassed a roster full of young players who put team success over individual accomplishments.
The Warriors were that beast that ultimately slayed OKC, with Klay Thompson delivering the Knockout with the Klay Game in 2016 which allowed Golden State to rally from 3-1 down, send OKC home … and convince Durant to sign with them that summer in free agency.
The current OKC Big 3 is enjoying the view from the NBA’s rooftop right now, after a 68-win season and a breezy run through much of the playoffs.
But how long before the Spurs’ metamorphosis begins in earnest? Or maybe the Mavericks, once healthy and if their projected No. 1 pick, Cooper Flagg, hits the ground running? Or a major trade tips the scale in favor of some other team?
That’s a concern for another day.
Meanwhile, there’s now. And it looks promising for OKC, starting Thursday in Game 1 (8:30 ET, ABC).
“Just like any other experience that we’ve had to go through, I feel like we’ve learned from them and figured out how we can be better for the next time we see that challenge,” said Holmgren. “This is just another part of the playoffs, another thing that you have to maximize and make the most of, and that’s what we’re trying to do.”
Back in 2012, Shai was a 13-year-old in Canada with no supreme skills then that separated him from other seventh-graders. Williams was 11 and playing pickup with his little brother, Cody, years before both ended up in the NBA, Cody with the Jazz. And Holmgren was 10, a few years from a growth spurt.
Nobody then could anticipate all three beating the odds to make the NBA and winding their way to OKC to give the Thunder a second chance with a Big 3. Most teams spend decades without any such trios.
The first one put Oklahoma City on the map. But it never took the country by storm.
Scott Brooks said: “We were winning games at a high level … you think it’s gonna be forever and we’re all gonna come back. It didn’t work out that way.”
Maybe it will this time.
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Shaun Powell has covered the NBA for more than 25 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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