Lookback at RJ’s game-winner from Game 6 + his sound on the shot postgame.
Only 30 of the 79 games in these playoffs have been within five points in the last five minutes, but we’ve still had some iconic moments and plenty of clutch shots.
The NBA’s Leverage Score, powered by AWS, allows us to measure exactly which shots have been the biggest. The leverage score looks at each team’s win probability at the end of a play and compares it to the win probability should the play have gone differently.
Most of the biggest leverage plays of the playoffs are missed shots or turnovers when the offensive team had the chance to take the lead late in a game. But there have also been some big shots that have connected.
Here are the 10 biggest made shots of the playoffs according to the NBA’s leverage model, through Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals:
Note: The leverage score measures how a play changed the outcome of an individual game, not the series.
1. Barrett gets the bounce
Game: Cavs vs. Raptors, First round, Game 6
Leverage score: 4.89
RJ Barrett knocked down a three-pointer with 1.2 seconds remaining in OT to lift the Raptors past the Cavaliers, 112-110.
The Cavs erased an 11-point, fourth-quarter deficit and were ready to close the Raptors out in Game 6, up one with the ball in the closing seconds of overtime. But after Collin Murray-Boyles stripped the ball off Evan Mobley, the Raptors had one more chance.
Scottie Barnes isolated against Dean Wade, drew help from Mobley, and kicked the ball out to RJ Barrett, who was a few feet beyond the arc. Mobley closed out and contested Barrett’s shot pretty well. The expected field goal percentage on the shot (based on shot distance, how square the shooter is, and level of contest from the defender) was 33.2%.
It was off the mark.
But after hitting the heel of the rim, the ball bounced more than 10 feet in the air and dropped back through the net, turning a one-point deficit into a two-point lead. The Raptors were about to be eliminated, but suddenly they were 1.2 seconds from forcing Game 7.
The Mobley 3-point attempt that followed was one of three buzzer-beating misses that had higher leverage scores than Barrett’s 3-pointer, but in the negative direction. The other two were:
- Julian Champagnie’s 3-point miss (with San Antonio down two) at the end of Game 1 of Spurs vs. Timberwolves in the conference semis.
- Mikal Bridges’ stepback jumper (with New York down one) at the end of Game 2 of Knicks vs. Hawks in the first round.
2, 5 & 7. Spurs win a classic
Game: Spurs vs. Thunder, Conference Finals, Game 1
Leverage scores: 4.12, 3.70, 3.50
Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals was one of the best games in recent memory. The Spurs took a 1-0 series lead behind 41 points and 24 rebounds from Victor Wembanyama, who hit one of the three shots listed below.
2. Champagnie for the lead: The Spurs and Thunder combined to score 21 points on the final 13 possessions of the fourth quarter. And because it turned a late deficit into a lead, the shot from Game 1 with the highest leverage score was Champagnie’s corner 3-pointer at the shot clock buzzer with 1:26 left in regulation.
5. Caruso pick-and-pop: The only other clutch shot in Game 1 that turned a deficit into a lead was the one immediately preceding Champagnie’s 3. Alex Caruso set a ball screen for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, drawing both Wembanyama and Stephon Castle to the ball. He got it back to Caruso, who drained a 3-pointer from the top of the arc before Wembanyama could recover.
7. Wembanyama from deep: The most iconic shot from this game ranks behind the two shots above (and a few more below). With the Thunder up three, Jalen Williams missed a contested pull-up jumper (with plenty of time on the shot clock), setting up Wembanyama’s audacious 3-pointer for the tie.
3. McCollum beats the Knicks … again
Game: Knicks vs. Hawks, First round, Game 3
Leverage score: 4.01
CJ McCollum hit the go-ahead shots in the final minute of both Games 2 and 3 against the Knicks. The first — a stepback jumper against OG Anunoby — came with the score tied and is just outside the top 10 leverage plays of the playoffs. The Game 3 shot — another stepback against Miles McBride — was bigger because it turned a one-point deficit into a one-point lead with 12.5 seconds left in Game 3.
4. A big-to-big connection
Game: Thunder vs. Lakers, Conference Semifinals, Game 4
Leverage score: 3.94
After winning each of the first three games of their series with the Lakers by at least 18 points, the Thunder were down one in the final minute as they tried to complete the sweep. The Lakers trapped Gilgeous-Alexander, who hit Isaiah Hartenstein on the short roll. Two Lakers came from the weak side to help, and Hartenstein dropped the ball off to Chet Holmgren under the basket. LeBron James was able to recover, but Holmgren gathered himself and rose for a dunk that put the Thunder ahead with 32.8 seconds left.
6. LeBron ties it from downtown
Game: Lakers vs. Rockets, First round, Game 3
Leverage score: 3.58
Up three with a little more than 20 seconds left, the Rockets just needed to hold onto the ball to win Game 3 in Houston. But James picked Reed Sheppard’s pocket from behind. Marcus Smart picked up the loose ball and a few seconds later, James drained a right-wing 3 over two Rockets to tie the game. The Lakers won in overtime to take a 3-0 series lead.
8. Shamet’s 3 bounces in
Game: Cavs vs. Knicks, Conference Finals, Game 1
Leverage score: 3.49
When Landry Shamet’s 3-point attempt from the right corner first hit the rim, it looked like the Knicks’ comeback from 22 points down in the fourth quarter was going to come up short. But the ball hit the backboard, landed back on the front of the rim, paused for a split second … and then dropped through the net, tying the game at 99 with 44.3 seconds left. The Knicks completed the comeback in overtime and then won the next three games more easily.
9. Mitchell puts the Cavs ahead
Game: Cavs vs. Raptors, First round, Game 6
Leverage score: 3.33
Prior to Barrett’s game-winning 3 with 1.2 seconds left, the Cavs had most of the big buckets in Game 6 in Toronto. Mitchell beat Barrett for the last of those, a deft scoop off the glass that gave Cleveland the lead with 33.7 seconds left in overtime.
Alas, Mitchell was just 5-for-23 on clutch shots as the Cavs went 3-5 in their eight playoff games that were within five points in the last five minutes.
10. Harden’s response
Game: Cavs vs. Knicks, Conference Finals, Game 1
Leverage score: 3.33
After Shamet’s out-and-in 3 tied Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, James Harden isolated against Jalen Brunson, took him into the paint, and hit a turnaround jumper from the free-throw line to put the Cavs back ahead with 30.4 seconds left.
Brunson then tied the game again by driving past Harden for a floater that ranks 14th on this list.
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John Schuhmann has covered the NBA for more than 20 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Bluesky.
