NBA Fantasy: How shot selection shifts are impacting fantasy basketball

Luka Dončić has significantly upped the number of 3s he’s attempting this season.

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We’re far enough into the season to notice something useful, as long as we’re careful about what we’re measuring. Scoring averages and shooting percentages can swing a lot over the first few weeks. Where a player takes his shots tends to settle faster, so it’s a better place to start.

In testing this for 2025-26, Tall Order Digital found that among 156 qualifying players, shot-zone shares over the first four games correlated with the rest of the season at 0.72 to 0.86 (a perfect match would be 1.0). Field-goal percentage correlated at just 0.46.

To see what the shifts are doing to fantasy basketball value, I’ve listed each player’s preseason ADP next to his current 9-cat rank (through Nov. 11). Shot data is Basketball-Reference totals as of Nov. 11, compared with last season or a career mark.

Where the shift is working

Luka Dončić and De’Aaron Fox are ranked higher than where they were drafted, and Michael Porter Jr. has climbed despite scoring less. In all three cases, the revised shot profiles are landing and netting positive results.

Luka Dončić, PG/SG, Los Angeles Lakers (ADP: 3, Current Rank: 2)

He’s launching 13.4 3s a game, up from 10.8 last season. His 3-point share has risen from .476 to .549, and last year’s .476 was already a career high. The bigger move is at the rim, where his share has dropped from .076 to .060. He’s making 40.8% of his 3s and averaging 38.6 points in 11 games.

De’Aaron Fox, PG, Spurs (ADP: 78, Current Rank: 57)

Fox is getting to the line far more often. He’s attempted 53 free throws on 111 field-goal attempts, a free-throw rate of .477, compared with .235 last year and a .316 career mark. His career high is .420, set in 2019-20, so this is a new peak.

It isn’t coming from more shots at the rim, though. His rim share is flat (.207 vs .201). What changed is the middle of the floor. Shots from 3-10 feet jumped from .204 to .315 of his attempts, while long twos nearly vanished (.067 to .018). He’s also attempting 3.1 3s a game, down from 5.5, so his average shot is 12.4 feet from the basket instead of 14.4.

He’s traded long twos and 3s for more floaters and short jumpers, and the whistle is doing the rest. He’s backing it up with 51% shooting and 6.2 assists, though his scoring is 14.2 points, down from 18.6.

Michael Porter Jr., SF/PF, Nets (ADP: 62.6, Current Rank: 49)

Porter is taking 3s on .615 of his attempts, up from .506 last season. He had never topped .556 in a season. His free-throw rate has climbed from .237 to .349, and his 10-to-16-foot share has collapsed from .075 to .018. He’s averaging 21.5 points, below last season’s 24.2, yet he’s still up five spots in his draft position. A more interesting shot profile doesn’t automatically mean more points. Playing alongside a player like Julius Randle likely also affects how a player navigates getting shots up.

Still elite

These two are still scoring, but their rank has dropped since they were drafted. A new shot mix doesn’t always show up the same way in the box score.

Kevin Durant, SF/PF, Rockets (ADP: 16, Current Rank: 34)

Durant is a free-throw story. His FTr has risen from .339 to .582 (92 attempts in 12 games, 7.7 a game), above his previous career best of .523 in 2012-13 and his .392 career mark. His 3-point volume has fallen from 5.8 a game to 3.8, and he’s turning it over 3.3 times a game. Durant is at 20.9 points on 49% shooting. Having Fred VanVleet back and running more offense through Alperen Sengun is putting less dependency on Durant – which is probably a good thing in the long run. Fantasy-wise, Jabari Smith Jr.’s and Sengun’s growth has Durant adjusting his shot profile, which could lessen his value as a scorer.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG/SG, Thunder (ADP: 4, Current Rank: 12)

Gilgeous-Alexander’s rim share has fallen from 22.8% to 13.1% and his 10-to-16-foot share has risen from .273 to .303. His 3s are up to .292 on 6.7 attempts a game from .226 on 4.4 last year. SGA’s free-throw rate has dropped from .465 to .339. He’s still scoring 29.7 a night, so this is a small slide from a very high perch.

That’s an observable redistribution that likely comes down to how much attention he’s drawing without co-stars Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren to balance out the Thunder’s offensive attack. SGA is having to settle for more contested shots and rely more on his jumper. SGA has proven to be one of the most efficient guards in the league, but fantasy managers may have to accept that this could be a down year. He’s shooting 45.3% from the field as of Wednesday.

His free-throw rate jumped from .247 to .429, but that’s partly a smaller denominator. He’s getting to the line about 4.2 times a game, up from 3.1, on far fewer shots. The extra trips haven’t made up for the lost volume. He’s shooting 43% with 2.8 turnovers, and he’s ranked 226th. A higher free-throw rate doesn’t help much when the shots aren’t there to begin with. Caleb Wilson will miss time with his hand injury, so expect Buzelis to see a short-term boost in his volume.

What it means for your roster

Shot diets settle faster than shooting percentages, and that’s the lens for this group. Bane and Markkanen have the clearest case: 3s are 68% and 65% of their shots, and that’s likely to stick, while their 39% shooting is the part more likely to improve. More 3s also means a lower field-goal percentage but more 3PM, so expect a trade-off in 9-cat rather than a clear gain.

Fox and Durant are getting to the line at career-high rates, which gives them some cushion on off nights, though it hasn’t lifted either one’s rank. Buzelis is the caution. His free-throw rate is up, but his shot volume is down, so the better rate hasn’t helped his fantasy value.

Bet on the shot profile, then check whether the production is catching up.