Cooper Flagg has been worth the first round pick he cost despite not turning 20 until December.
Here are five fantasy trends grabbing my attention heading into Week 4 of the fantasy basketball season, plus some rapid-fire notes on every other team.
These unexpected players are delivering
Heat: One of the bigger surprises has been Miami’s Davion Mitchell, who’s ranked inside the top 55 in both 9-cat and standard points leagues, outpacing his ADP of 118.7. He’s averaging 35.1 minutes and 6.2 assists per game, making his playmaking a major part of his fantasy value. With six double-doubles through 10 appearances, Mitchell has been a quiet hero early in the season.
Warriors: Yaxel Lendeborg is another draft-day bargain, ranking 54th in 9-cat and 37th in points leagues after carrying an ADP of 104. His usage ranks fourth, but he has the highest TS% among rookies playing at least 20 minutes a night. The efficiency at high-end minutes (32.3 per game) with a defined role led to some nice cross-category value across scoring, rebounding, facilitating and defensive production. I’m buying the breakout and hard-pressed to find a reason to sell. He’s that good.
Clippers: LAC is hoarding one of the best fantasy values in Kris Dunn. He’s sitting at 33rd in 9-cat, despite being drafted in the late rounds (ADP 119). The steals he’s piling up (over 2 per contest) are what’s driving most of his rise up the ranks. He’s playing a ton of minutes while keeping his turnovers down and delivering a versatile 9-4-4 line with almost 3 steals a night. There’s some sell-high appeal here, especially in 9-cat leagues. In 42% of Dunn trades, he’s part of a package deal, so you’ll likely have to include someone else to make a swap.
Timberwolves: Let’s not gloss over Minnesota’s Jaden McDaniels, who is crushing his ADP (ranked 46th in 9-cat after going 89th on draft day). Through 11 games, he’s on pace for career-bests in minutes, points, rebounds, assists, 3s and usage per game. I think his defense will pick up once Ant-Man returns and he carries less responsibility on the offensive end.
The rookie takeover is changing rotations
Kings: Sacramento’s Darius Acuff Jr. has a crazy high 32.3% usage rate, eighth in the NBA among qualified players. That’s a massive offensive responsibility for a rookie, and the Kings’ 1-9 start gives them little reason to limit his development. His scoring (25.9 PPG) and assists (7.4 APG) make him especially appealing in points leagues. Although, even with his warts in inefficiency and turnovers, he’s in the top 80 in 9-cat, well above his preseason ADP.
Bucks: In Milwaukee, Brayden Burries has overtaken Ryan Rollins in the starting lineup. Burries is averaging 13 points, 8.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists across three starts. That rebounding from a guard is particularly appealing in category leagues, and the Bucks’ 1-9 start should give Burries an opportunity to establish himself. He is one of my priority adds this week.
Hawks: Atlanta has made a similar move to Milwaukee, starting rookie Kingston Flemings over CJ McCollum. Flemings is gaining valuable playing time and experience, while McCollum’s fantasy outlook remains stable, operating in a timeshare and sixth man role. The Hawks have a 124 Offensive Rating with Flemings running point (small sample but a good signal nonetheless). His shot volume and efficiency have improved over that three-game span, too — now, let’s see if it’ll hold and if he can generate more potential assists.
Thunder: Rookie Aday Mara offers immediate appeal as a shot-blocking specialist. The rim protection, plus rebounding, give him a useful 9-cat profile. Coming off the best performance of his young career over the weekend (18 points with 8 rebounds and 3 blocks), Mara will have to earn every chance to sustain a 20-25 minute role nightly.
Injuries are creating opportunities, but which ones will last?
Hornets: Charlotte is dealing with injuries to Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller and Dennis Schröder, creating additional opportunities throughout the rotation. Grayson Allen is the priority pickup, averaging 15-3-3 and over 3 3s per game. He’s worth adding, though some of that opportunity will disappear when Charlotte gets healthier.
Pacers: In Indiana, it’s Andrew Nembhard who has taken on the creator role for Tyrese Haliburton. With Hali off the floor, Nembhard’s assists went up from 5.2 to 8.5 per game. Given Hali’s injury history, I’d hold Nembhard even if it feels like a sell-high moment.
Raptors: Toronto’s Jamal Shead has shown impressive playmaking upside with Immanuel Quickley sidelined. After dishing out 16 assists on Saturday, he followed that up with a 20-point, 11-assist performance on Monday. Keep streaming him until IQ returns.
Pistons: For Detroit, fantasy managers should add Daniss Jenkins. He started in place of Paul Reed on Monday. I’m keeping Reed even if the demotion isn’t matchup-based because he can still get plenty of rebounds and stocks until Jalen Duren returns. Though, that’s been delayed at least another two weeks.
Magic: At 2-7, they need Paolo Banchero back because leaning more heavily on Franz Wagner without him isn’t working out. Wagner’s 28.9% season usage rate reflects his importance to Orlando’s offense, while Desmond Bane continues to struggle, shooting 39% from the field across eight contests.
Buy low or sell high? Know the difference
There’s a difference between a player struggling to make shots and one whose early production might be difficult to sustain.
Bulls: Chicago has the worst Defensive Rating in the league at 123.6. Josh Giddey hasn’t helped, as he’s been rough on both ends. Sunday was different, though — he had a season-high 19 points, seven rebounds and a season-best 15 assists in 34 minutes in a 127-121 loss to Philly. I’ll be honest: I’m panicking a bit, and I’m trying to use that breakout game as trade bait.
Knicks: Another player falling short of expectations is New York’s Mikal Bridges. He’s averaging 6 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists and 1.4 stocks per game.
Grizzlies: Ty Jerome is on the other side of that conversation. He’s averaging 26.7 points, 4.9 assists and 2.5 3s in just 30.4 minutes while shooting 50% from the field. That’s excellent production, but I’m skeptical he maintains that scoring efficiency all season. With a usage rate around 30%, I’m not selling just to sell. But if someone values Jerome as a top-25 fantasy player, I’d entertain it.
Nets: In Brooklyn, it’s been a guard carousel featuring Nolan Traore and Mikel Brown Jr. It’s a tough week to hold either player with just two games on Wednesday and Saturday. I’d send them to waivers for a better streaming option.
Nuggets: It’s been more of the same in Denver — Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray are first-rounders, and then there’s a significant drop-off with the supporting cast. Christian Braun is the only other Nuggets player inside the top-100 in 9-cat (74th).
Category specialists are making a difference
Rockets: Alperen Sengun is pacing to a career-high in assists per game, currently sitting at 7.8 per game, the highest mark on the team and seventh in the NBA. It’s early, but Fred VanVleet’s leadership is key to their success and unlocking the upside of the starting unit — just look at Jabari Smith Jr.
Celtics: Boston initially caught some heat swapping a former Finals MVP for Paul George, but it’s paying off. Offensively, George is fitting right in, but he’s adding value on defense, averaging 2.3 swipes per contest.
Cavaliers: In Cleveland, Peyton Watson is worth monitoring for blocks. He’s blocking 1.4 per game, tied for ninth in the league with Kevin Durant.
Quick thoughts on the rest of the league
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76ers: Joel Embiid, while solid this far, admitted to dealing with a plantar fascia injury. That won’t age well.
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Lakers: Walker Kessler ranks seventh in 9-cat against an ADP of 40. His rebounding, blocks and field-goal percentage are driving his value, even with limited offensive usage.
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Mavericks: Cooper Flagg looks every bit the part of a first-round fantasy talent. He ranks sixth in 9-cat and points leagues, which is pretty impressive for the second-year phenom.
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Spurs: Wemby just missed a triple-double on Monday, posting 40 points and 11 rebounds with 9 blocks. Wemby has put up an incredible 48 blocks through the Spurs’ first 11 games — landing him at No. 2 all-time since blocks began being tracked in 1983–84.
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Pelicans: Zion Williamson is 27th in 9-cat against an ADP of 69. His efficiency and defensive contributions have helped offset his familiar category weaknesses. But also, sell high!
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Suns: Miles Bridges…top-20? Sell high.
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Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard is outside the top-100 in 9-cat (109th) and averaging 30.24 fantasy points per game in just under 30 minutes a night. Good buy-low spot as he’s shooting 41% from the field through nine games.
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Jazz: Keyonte George’s ankle injury could create opportunities for Isaiah Collier. It could also provide a big boost to No. 2 overall pick Darryn Peterson’s fantasy profile.
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Wizards: Trae Young is pacing to career lows in field-goal (39.3%) and 3-point (28.8%) percentages. At least the assists are up to 8 per game.
