Evan Mobley and the Cavaliers have a highly anticipated matchup against the Jazz on Monday.
Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate, and a Happy New Year to everyone. Is it too late to say Happy New Year? I hope your resolutions include some bigger DFS wins, and I’m here to make it happen. It’s been a profitable season so far, where we’ve missed out on some big wins by just a few hiccups. That’s all part of the season, and I know a big cash is coming soon.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a smaller four-game fantasy slate tonight, so you might have to be a little picky or just stick to cash games unless you’re willing to be a bit risky. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
NBA DFS core plays
Donovan Mitchell (PG, SG – CLE)
- DraftKings: $9,400
- FanDuel: $9,600
I’m not sure the last time I’ve seen a 250-point total for a game on a slate I’ve written about. A lot of players I like today will come from this game. Surprisingly, a solid handful of Utah options are viable tonight. Still, my favorite player is Donovan Mitchell. His rostership is around a lowly 25%.
Let me remind you that Utah has the lowest-ranked defense in the league, while both squads rank in the top seven in pace of play. I’m a little surprised the total is where it’s at, but I’m deciding to trust it. Mitchell has a 33% usage rate, and with his 34 minutes of playing time, there is an impressively high floor to go with the highest ceiling on the slate. Even on a four-game slate, the Cleveland guard will have low rostership. I’ll be rostering Mitchell a lot tonight.
Scottie Barnes (SF, PF – TOR)
- DraftKings: $8,200
- FanDuel: $8,600
The Toronto forward may be playing in a game that’s a full 30 points under the total of Utah-Cleveland, but he’s still one of my favorite plays this evening. RJ Barrett and Brandon Ingram are both questionable, but even if both play, Scottie Barnes is set up for success.
Barnes gets a significant bump at home and is coming off a 50-point effort last night. Of course, he’s capable of a 25-burger, which is why I prefer him in the GPP streets, but with it being a four-game slate, I accept him in either contest type. Barnes has had a boost in usage rate lately — around 26% in his last week of play.
The 76ers’ defense isn’t too scary, right around the middle of the pack. I imagine around a 25% rostership for Barnes, but there’s a good chance Barnes ends up in the optimal lineup tonight, so I will be overweight on the Raptors forward.
NBA DFS cash game targets
Payton Pritchard (PG, SG – BOS)
- DraftKings: $6,900
- FanDuel: $6,700
As things stand right now, you can basically pick any player from Boston and slot them in your cash lineups tonight. With Jaylen Brown expected to miss this game, a lot of usage is up for grabs tonight. Payton Pritchard looks to get the biggest boost, projecting just shy of 40 fantasy points, and to be the highest-rostered Celtics player.
The Pacers’ defense has been a bottom-five unit over their last 10 games while being the third fastest-paced team. Don’t expect Boston to struggle at all. Pritchard’s price, expected minutes and usage make him an all-around great play.
Evan Mobley (PF, C – CLE)
- DraftKings: $7,900
- FanDuel: $8,100
It feels like Evan Mobley lives in the cash range, but I have yet to really regret that decision this year. He struggled before the New Year, but besides those two games where he was limited in minutes, Mobley hasn’t scored fewer than 30 fantasy points in multiple months.
Again, anyone from Cleveland-Utah is a reasonable play tonight. Their total is not only high but a full 24-point differential from any other game tonight. There’s a lot to go around here. Mobley commands a 22% usage rate and should see the court closer to 33 minutes tonight.
Against Utah, you can lock Mobley in for 30 fantasy points and expect over 40 DraftKings points as an average output for the Cleveland big man.
NBA DFS GPP targets
Tyrese Maxey (PG – PHI)
- DraftKings: $10,000
- FanDuel: $10,400
When there’s a four-game slate, rostership numbers usually get inflated across the board, where you don’t really see anyone with a rostership rate lower than 15%. What’s odd is that Tyrese Maxey is coming in around 9% this early in the day. That’s a little shocking.
The 76ers guard has gone over 57 fantasy points in five of his last seven games. Toronto may have a top-10 defensive unit with a slower pace, but these are still elite athletes who are capable of a career performance any given game. The 76ers feel like the risky GPP play tonight with Joel Embiid only 7% rostered tonight despite being projected for around 42 fantasy points. Maxey is my preferred play because his high ceiling potential and low rostership is unmatched as a clear leverage choice.
Michael Porter Jr. (SF, PF – BKN)
- DraftKings: $8,700
- FanDuel: $9,200
When you’re throwing around the word trust, Michael Porter Jr. isn’t exactly the first name that comes to mind, but his numbers back him up this year. The Brooklyn forward has gone over 40 fantasy points in seven straight games with multiple 50+ point efforts.
Considering Brooklyn’s offense and pace of play rank in the bottom five of the league, that’s no small feat. For play like this, you’d expect to see a bump in pricing, but on DraftKings, he’s remained below $9,000 tonight. He makes for a solid leverage option tonight.
Porter is projected for around 12% rostership tonight, and it makes sense against Dallas, but don’t sleep on some late swap options, even with a 220-point total tonight in Texas.
NBA DFS value plays
Daniel Gafford (C – DAL)
- DraftKings: $5,000
- FanDuel: $5,000
On a smaller slate, it’s harder to find a pure value option in terms of straight return on investment (ROI), but Daniel Gafford is essentially your punt center play tonight. With no Anthony Davis, Gafford obviously will get a bump in playing time and should see at least 25 minutes tonight.
Gafford’s usage will get a significant increase as well, and he gets a 30% bump in fantasy points when playing at home this season. I don’t expect his ceiling to be insane, given still relatively limited playing time, but he’s got a nice floor for cash lineups. Either way, for a four-game slate, he’s one of the best values. Still waiting on injury news, but elsewhere in this game, Drake Powell, Terance Mann or Nolan Traore could make for solid values as well on the Brooklyn side.
Sam Hauser (SF, PF – BOS)
- DraftKings: $3,800
- FanDuel: $4,000
Sam Hauser is questionable tonight, but as I mentioned before, with no Jaylen Brown, you can pick any Celtics player for relative value. Hugo González is close behind Hauser for pure value, but if Hauser is on the court, he takes the cake.
The Celtics forward should play around 30 minutes if he isn’t out tonight, and that is plenty for anyone who is sub-$4,000 to return value. Boston across the slate will be highly rostered, so Hauser makes for a cash game or GPP play.
