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2026 Lottery Picks: Expectations ahead of rookie seasons

Some insight into the initial expectations and situations the 2026 NBA lottery picks will face during their rookie seasons.

2026 Rookie Transition Program

AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and other rookies learn the business of basketball and get a glimpse of life off the court.

Summer League is in the rearview mirror. Members of the 2026 Draft Class have gone through the NBA’s rookie orientation program, so now it’s on to the start of their rookie seasons.

All that tiering – top four, next four, and so on – that accompanied their arrival means little now. Instead, their value will come from opportunity, rapid study and their new teams’ needs. One will snag the 2027 Wilt Chamberlain Trophy as Kia Rookie of the Year, but even that will be more of a starter’s pistol for careers that could stretch deep into the next decade.

Heading toward their first training camps, here are glimpses of the players chosen in this year’s lottery, the top 14 slots from which 39 of the past 40 ROTY winners have come.


1. AJ Dybantsa, Washington Wizards

The Wizards and their fans are ecstatic about the upside of the Brigham Young University standout. As the third Wizards player drafted No. 1 overall (joining Kwame Brown in 2001 and John Wall in 2010), Dybantsa scored about a point per minute in the Las Vegas Summer League. He slots into a roster brimming with young talent, with veterans Trae Young and Anthony Davis counted on now for leadership.


2. Darryn Peterson, Utah Jazz

Expectations are high for Peterson, same as they were at Kansas last season. The difference is that the 6-foot-5 guard is surrounded by serious NBA talent, including firepower from the likes of Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George and Jaren Jackson Jr. He’s brimming with confidence, but to etch his name alongside top Jazz rookies of the past such as Darrell Griffith (Utah’s only ROY), Andrei Kirilenko, Derrick Favors, Donovan Mitchell and George, Peterson will need to flex his overall game, not just his scoring.


3. Cameron Boozer, Memphis Grizzlies

Given Memphis’ reconfigured roster and ambitions, the son of two-time NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer could get the minutes and usage to post the type of numbers that have fueled winning at every level. The rugged 6-foot-9, 253-pound Boozer was college basketball’s Player of the Year and a first-team pick at the LVSL, where his smarts and his shooting drew high praise at both levels.


4. Caleb Wilson, Chicago Bulls

Insiders have been shuffling through comps, ceilings and floors for Wilson. Pascal Siakam, Tracy McGrady, Paul George, Shawn Kemp, Kevin Garnett and Kawhi Leonard (Wilson’s personal choice) have all been floated. More importantly, Wilson – who recently had some fun back in Chapel Hill, NC, as part of new Tar Heels coach Michael Malone’s alumni weekend – has stated his intentions to be great, to win that Chamberlain Trophy and lead a Bulls resurgence with teammates Matas Buzelis and Josh Giddy.


5. Keaton Wagler, Los Angeles Clippers

The 6-foot-6 shooting guard out of Illinois has high expectations as the first pick outside of the consensus Top 4. How he meshes in the backcourt with Darius Garland will be his biggest test as the Clippers enter a new era with All-Star forward Brandon Ingram and No. 13 pick in the 2023 Draft Gradey Dick joining LA in exchange for Kawhi Leonard.


6. Mikel Brown Jr., Brooklyn Nets

Brown, a 6-foot-5, 190-pound point guard from Louisville, will be bringing more than his physical skills to the Nets’ young core. He got some master-class tutoring from former NBA All-Star Rajon Rondo, a Louisville native. “I was fortunate enough to have him as a mentor,” Brown Jr. said. “He invited me to his crib, and we watched some film together, played a little bit of chess. … I got to pick his brain a lot.” Top lesson? “Make the simple play.” Brooklyn needs that from Brown to improve on its total of 20 victories last season.


7. Darius Acuff Jr., Sacramento Kings

The standout guard from Arkansas should have plenty of opportunities in the backcourt for Sacramento after the departure of DeMar DeRozan this offseason. Acuff Jr., who averaged 19.0 points and 5.3 assists over three games in Las Vegas Summer League, has the skills and mindset to thrive alongside center Domantas Sabonis and guards Zach LaVine and Malik Monk as the Kings look to snap a three-season playoff drought.


8. Kingston Flemings, Atlanta Hawks

A terrific athlete, Flemings averaged 16.1 points at Houston with a 3-to-1 assists/turnovers ratio and sank 39% of his 3-point attempts. He figures to do a lot of learning from the Hawks’ established guards in a crowded Atlanta backcourt featuring CJ McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Aaron Wiggins and others.


9. Morez Johnson Jr., Dallas Mavericks

Having your college coach’s moving van convoy with your own to the same city is one way to jump-start an NBA career. Johnson, the power forward from Michigan, is joined by his Wolverines coach Dusty May as Mavericks’ newcomers, both of whom were key in their school’s NCAA championship this spring. May sees “positional versatility” on Dallas’ roster, including his prize draft pick. “Morez can play a number of positions, and he can guard all five positions,” the coach said.


10. Brayden Burries, Milwaukee Bucks

Burries is the highest profile addition to Milwaukee’s rebuilding project, with unknowns crowding out expectations in the new post-Giannis Antetokounmpo era. The California native will most likely log a lot of time next season, with Bucks fans eager to see if the Jrue Holiday/Derrick White comps are reasonable for the sturdy 6-foot-4 guard. Turning 21 on Friday, Burries averaged 16.1 points at Arizona. His college coach Tommy Lloyd said, “There’s nothing wrong with being a great human being off the court and being a killer on the court. He definitely has that combination.”


11. Yaxel Lendeborg, Golden State Warriors

Lendeborg, an athletic 6-foot-9 native of Puerto Rico, will turn 24 as training camp begins, with a potential ready-or-not role in the Warriors’ injury-muddled rotation. No Jimmy Butler or Moses Moody means minutes and enhanced opportunities for Lendeborg and others, at least through the season’s first half. He got started by earning MVP honors at the LVSL, on the heels of his work helping Michigan snag its NCAA championship.

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12. Aday Mara, Oklahoma City Thunder

The third member of the Wolverines’ title team to get drafted in the lottery, Mara has been touted as Spain’s and OKC’s counter to the Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama. At 7-foot-3 and 260, he definitely has the size to bother the lanky Frenchman in relay with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.


13. Nate Ament, Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee is the only team with two players selected in the lottery, and the Bucks hope Ament eventually can have the impact they envision for Burries. A raw 6-foot-10 from Tennessee who was part of the Giannis deal with Miami, Ament had some bumpy moments in Las Vegas but has gotten back in the gym in late summer to strengthen and refine his game.


14. Hannes Steinbach, Charlotte Hornets

Drafted to beef up the Hornets’ front line, Steinbach demonstrated his European pro roots promptly over the summer. At Washington, he had 22 double-doubles in 30 appearances, then averaged 15.8 points in Las Vegas while making 60% of his shots, including half of his threes. His size (6-foot-11, 248 pounds) will matter most defensively, helping out Moussa Diabaté, Grant Williams and Ryan Kalkbrenner.

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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.

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