NBA Storylines: Remaining strength of schedule rankings

The Celtics and Timberwolves have 2 of the 5 hardest remaining schedules.

The Detroit Pistons are almost a lock to finish the season as the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, but there is still much else to be determined over the final 43 days of the season.

There are 158 games remaining that involve two of the 21 teams that are still competing for playoff or Play-In position (the current top 10 in each conference plus the Milwaukee Bucks). There are plenty of big games left to be played and much at stake, whether it be home-court advantage in the playoffs, an automatic berth (via a top-six finish) or positioning in the Play-In, where every spot has an advantage over the one below.

Here’s a schedule breakdown for the months of March and April.

Note: A rest-advantage game (or rest-disadvantage game) is one where one team played the day/night before, but the other (the team with the advantage) did not. Teams are 107-103 (.510) in rest-advantage games, 53-57 (.482) at home and 54-46 (.540) on the road, through Feb. 28.

Remaining strength of schedule

Here’s a look at the remaining schedule for every team, sorted from the toughest (in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage) to the easiest:

OppPCT = Cumulative opponent winning percentage (through February)
B2B = Back-to-backs (includes three Feb. 28-Mar. 1 back-to-backs)
H | R = Home games | Road games

Eastern Conference notes

• The Hawks are the only team with just a single rest-disadvantage game left on their schedule, and it’s at home (Mar. 28) against the Kings. They’re currently four games into a stretch in where they’re playing 10 of 11 at State Farm Arena, still one of seven teams in NBA history (the Hornets are another) with a winning record (17-15) on the road and a losing record (13-16) at home.

• The Celtics have the East’s toughest remaining schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.525). Only 12 of their 23 remaining games are against teams that enter March with winning records, but three of those are against the Thunder (x 2) and Spurs, and five of their other 11 are against the improving Hornets (x 3) and Bucks (x 2).

• The Nets‘ longest homestand of the season (six games over 12 days) is Mar. 29 – Apr. 9, and all six games are against teams that enter March with losing records.

• The Hornets have the league’s toughest remaining schedule in regard to opposing defenses, with 12 games against teams that enter March in the top 10 defensively, but only four against teams in the bottom 10. They have a seven-game homestand from Mar. 17-29 that begins with one of their two remaining games against the eighth-place Heat, who they trail by two games as we enter March.

• The Bulls are one of two Eastern Conference teams (the Raptors are the other) with more remaining games against the West (13) than they have within the East (nine). That includes two games each against the Thunder and Suns.

• The Cavs have the East’s easiest remaining schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.453). They have two big home games against the Pistons and Celtics (their final two games against top-10 offenses) next week, but they’re the East team with the most remaining games (nine) against the bottom nine teams in the league. They’re 13-3 against that group entering their game in Brooklyn on Sunday.

• The Pistons are one of two teams with a league-high 14 road games remaining. That includes nine of their 14 remaining games against teams that enter March with winning records, with visits to San Antonio and Oklahoma City included. They have the best record (20-7, including 10-2 on the road) in games played within the 16 teams currently over .500.

• The Pacers have just four games remaining within the bottom nine in the league, and three of them are on the road. The lone home game is against Memphis on Sunday.

• The Heat have the league’s most East-heavy remaining schedule, with only three of their 21 games against the Western Conference. They’ll have a stretch from Mar. 25 – Apr. 9 where they’re playing six of eight games within the top eight in the East.

• The Bucks‘ two biggest remaining games are their two against the 10th-place Hawks: Mar. 4 in Milwaukee and Mar. 14 in Atlanta. They enter March with two games left on a stretch of five in seven days, and they’ll have another five-in-seven stretch from Mar. 28 – Apr. 3.

• The Knicks have the softest remaining stretch of schedule for any team, a seven-game stretch from Mar. 11-24, when they’re playing the Jazz, Pacers (x 2), Warriors, Nets, Wizards and Pelicans. But they begin the month with a game against the Spurs, followed by their only stretch of five games in seven days, which takes them from Toronto to New York and then across the country.

• The Magic are one of three teams – the Nuggets and Wizards are the others – with a league-high five rest-disadvantage games on their remaining schedule. They’re 5-2 in rest-disadvantage games thus far, but three of the five remaining are against the Thunder, Cavs and Pistons.

• The Sixers are one of two teams – the Grizzlies are the other – with a league-high 11 remaining games against teams that rank in the top 10 offensively. That includes two games each against the Spurs (seventh) and Pistons (10th).

• The Raptors have been better on the road (19-10, .655) than they’ve been at home (16-15, .516), with that being the league’s biggest such differential. Their remaining schedule is road-heavy (12/22), with no homestands longer than two games.

• The Wizards are 2-36 (every other team has at least 10 wins) in the second games of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, and they’re one of five teams with a league-high six back-to-backs remaining on their schedule. Four of those six are part of their two remaining stretches of five games in seven days.

Western Conference notes

• The Mavs have the league’s most road-heavy remaining schedule, with only nine of their 23 games at American Airlines Center. They also have just three games remaining (fewest in the league) against the other eight teams that have lost at least 60% of their games through February. Two of those are on the road during a stretch where they’re playing (thanks to some schedule adjustments) four games in five days (Mar. 12-16).

• The Nuggets have the league’s toughest remaining schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.543), with 11 games remaining within the top eight in the Western Conference. But they also have the most home-heavy remaining schedule, with 14 of their 22 games (six of the 11 within the West’s top eight) at Ball Arena.

• The Warriors, after hosting the Clippers on Monday, will play nine of their next 11 games on the road. Their second six-game trip of the season is Mar. 15-23, with the first five games being their second (and final) stretch of five game in seven days.

• The Rockets are 5-1 (tied for second best) in rest-advantage games, but are the only team with no rest-advantage games remaining on their schedule. They have nine games remaining within the top eight in the West, including two each against the Warriors, Lakers and Wolves.

• The Clippers have a league-high 11 games remaining against the bottom nine teams in the league. They’re also one of two teams with a league-high seven rest-advantage games remaining on their schedule, though they’re 0-5 in rest-advantage games through February.

• The Lakers have the toughest remaining stretch of games for any team. They’ll finish a five-game homestand with a visit from the Nuggets (Mar. 14) and then begin a six-game trip with five games against the Rockets (x 2), Heat, Magic and Pistons.

• The Grizzlies are one of two Western Conference teams (the Thunder are the other) with more games remaining against the East (13) than they have within the West (11). Their longest homestand of the season (six games from Mar. 25 – Apr. 3) includes visits from the Bulls, Knicks and Raptors.

• The Wolves have the league’s third toughest remaining schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.532), with 14 of their 22 games coming against teams that enter March with winning records. That includes two games each against the Pistons, Rockets and Magic, and their biggest remaining game could be their next one: Sunday at Denver (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC).

• The Pelicans enter March with four games left on their longest road trip of the season (six games over nine days). They have five games remaining within the bottom nine in the league, and two of them (including Thursday) are in Sacramento.

• The Thunder have the league’s toughest remaining schedule in regard to opposing offenses, with two games remaining against each of the top three teams on that end of the floor (Denver, Boston and New York). Their longest road trip of the season (five games from Mar. 17-25) will be immediately followed by their longest homestand of the season (five games from Mar. 27 – Apr. 5).

• The Suns are the only team with a league-low nine home games and a league-high six back-to-backs remaining. The have a six-game trip from Mar. 10-19 that includes two back-to-backs, with rest-disadvantage games in Toronto and Minnesota.

• The Blazers have the league’s easiest remaining schedule in regard to both cumulative opponent winning percentage (.428) and opposing defenses. Eleven of their 21 games are against teams that enter March in the bottom 10 defensively, while only three are against teams in the top 10.

• The Kings are one of two teams (the Clippers are the other) with a league-high seven rest-advantage games remaining on their schedule. They still have seven games remaining within the bottom nine teams, including three straight – vs. New Orleans, Chicago and Indiana – from Mar. 5-10. That’s part of a stretch where they’re playing nine of 10 at home.

• The Spurs have just one rest-advantage game remaining, but it’s a big one: Mar. 12 vs. Denver. That’s the fifth game of their longest homestand of the season (six games over 10-days), which also includes visits from the Pistons, Clippers, Rockets, Celtics and Hornets.

• The Jazz have five games remaining within the bottom nine teams in the league. That includes both of their games against the Wizards. They’re 9-9 within the bottom nine after closing February with two losses to the Pelicans.

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John Schuhmann has covered the NBA for more than 20 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Bluesky.