The remaining handful of Nikola Jokić vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander games could decide the Kia MVP winner.
Could the Kia MVP race be decided not just by a season, but three games in particular?
If the competition between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić remains tight — and they’re Nos. 1 and 2 in the Kia Race to the MVP Ladder this week, as they’ve been for much of the season — then maybe a measure of weight will be applied to what they do against each other, head-to-head.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets meet on Friday (9:30 ET, ESPN) and then twice more before the season is done. In tight situations like this, where two candidates share the same floor, the conversation perks up regarding the award. If one player leaves a lasting impression — suppose, he has a beastly performance against the other guy’s team — it tends to stick in the memory a bit longer.
Again, this only matters if the MVP race is tight. And that’s the case right now, as it was virtually all last season as well.
In the Nuggets vs. Thunder scenario, Jokić has the tougher task. He must deal with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, OKC’s twin 7-footers. The main matchup at center is with Hartenstein, but there will be times when Holmgren, a power forward and one of the better defensive big men in the league, will challenge Jokić as well.
It’s not a matter of who’s the better player — Jokić would clear both even if you fused them — but the amount of work required by Jokić in this situation, at both ends of the floor.
Contrast that with what level of resistance awaits Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s an elite scorer, virtually an automatic 25-30 points per game, going against a Nuggets’ team that currently lacks an elite ball-stopper. Peyton Watson and Aaron Gordon are out and dealing with hamstring issues. Meanwhile, Christian Braun has struggled since returning to the lineup from injury.
The Nuggets might get a break if Shai misses the Friday game. He hasn’t played since Feb. 3 because of an abdominal strain and remains questionable. The longer he’s on the shelf, the greater the chances of Jokić rising to the top spot on the MVP Ladder. That’s only fair, considering Gilgeous-Alexander leapfrogged Jokić last month when Jokić missed nearly a month with a hyperextended knee.
The MVP race, in a sense, begins now, as the season creeps into March. The demands on Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić will be massive. Neither player can afford to miss many more games (and only one more for Jokić to remain eligible). This could be a photo finish, and if so, the Nuggets and Thunder play April 10 in the next-to-last game of the season.
Setting the stage this week: Twice in the span of five days will be an MVP Ladder treat — Cade Cunningham staring across the floor at Donovan Mitchell, first on Friday, then Tuesday. Aside from Ladder implications, this Cavs-Pistons matchup also might impact the race at the top in the East. Cade and the Pistons have ruled for much of the season, but Mitchell and the Cavs, winners in 12 of their last 16 games, are fast rising.
The stat to know: There are six players in the NBA with 100 or more clutch points and five are top-10 on the MVP Ladder — Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokić, Cunningham, Tyrese Maxey and Anthony Edwards, with Jamal Murray as the sixth.
What they are saying: “I start seeing people appreciate my game like, `Man, this guy’s so pure.’ People complimenting the purity of your game, I think it’s one of the best compliments I ever got.” — Cunningham (to GQ magazine) on Cunningham.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Last ranking: No. 1 ↔️
Season stats: 31.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 6.4 assists
His case: Gilgeous-Alexander has managed to construct a consistent and highly-efficient season and keep OKC on top in the very competitive West, which is no easy feat. He has done this while missing, at times, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein, among others, proof of his ability to be a difference-maker.
Gilgeous-Alexander is second in the league in scoring, on 55% shooting, and once again is applying credible defense. His only issue as of late is missing games while dealing with an ab injury. Further absences could impact his chances of winning back-to-back Kia MVPs.
2. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
Last ranking: No. 2 ↔️
Season stats: 28.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, 10.4 assists
His case: Jokić leads the league in rebounds per game and assists per game and he’s sixth in scoring. Purely from a statistical standpoint, nobody else in the NBA compares. He’s on pace to average a triple-double for the season, which in the past was applauded, but folks have suddenly become jaded by it. That’s what greatness does. It’s taken for granted.
The results on the court, from a team standpoint, have been mixed since he returned from injury, yet those were impacted by the scheduling (against a tough stretch of contenders) and the Nuggets’ injuries. He might need to push Denver a bit closer toward the top of the West to increase his MVP chances (Denver is 7 1/2 games behind OKC).
3. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
Last ranking: No. 4 ⬆️
Season stats: 25.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 9.8 assists
His case: Cunningham is coming off a strong week, enhanced by his 29 points and 13 assists in a win over the West-leading Thunder (although without Gilgeous-Alexander). In that game, Cade displayed the all-around ability and both ends of the floor impact that have made him a Ladder fixture and positioned the Pistons at the top of the East.
He also had 42 points in a win over the Knicks (and Jalen Brunson) and nearly a triple-double in another victory, over the Bulls, both on the road, both right after the All-Star break. Which is to suggest that Cunningham might be the MVP leader since the break.
4. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Last ranking: No. 5 ⬆️
Season stats: 23.7 points, 11.2 rebounds, 2.8 blocks
His case: Wembanyama has elevated his game since the All-Star break as well, with impactful games helping the Spurs extend an 11-game winning streak. This is a legit push toward the top of the West.
Wembanyama has four or more blocked shots in each of his last four games and if nothing else, positioned himself as a strong Defensive Player of the Year favorite. His best outing lately was 21 points, 17 rebounds and six blocks against Cunningham and the East-leading Pistons. Also, his minutes are ramping up; after averaging less than 30 minutes for the season before the break, Wemby has played 30 or more in four of his last five games, falling short in the other because it was a blowout.
5. Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers
Last ranking: No. 4 ⬇️
Season stats: 32.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 8.6 assists
His case: Dončić leads the league in scoring and is among the assists and rebound leaders. His level of play hasn’t dipped much all season from that lofty standard. The only player who compiles the degree of numbers in those categories is Jokić, which means Dončić is in great company from an MVP Ladder standpoint.
The other big plus for Dončić is decreasing his turnovers, at least as of late. That plagued him for much of the season. Dončić remains among the game’s biggest offensive threats and has perhaps his best season.
The next 5:
6. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics ↔️
7. Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers ↔️
8. Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks ⬆️
9. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves ⬇️
10. Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers ↔️
And five more (listed alphabetically): Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets; Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons; Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks; Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers; Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
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Shaun Powell has covered the NBA since 1985. You can e-mail him at spowell@nba.com, find his archive here and follow him on X.
