2026 Playoffs: West Final | OKC (1) vs. SAS (2)

NBA Playoffs: What to expect in Thunder-Spurs series

The Thunder's depth and how they defend Victor Wembanyama loom large in a highly anticipated Western Conference Finals.

Jeff Zillgitt

Jeff Zillgitt

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Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren finished first and second, respectively, in Kia Defensive Player of the Year voting this season.

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The Oklahoma City Thunder lost 18 games on their way to an NBA-best 64 victories during the 2025-26 regular season. Four of the losses were against the San Antonio Spurs.

The Spurs’ lopsided success against the Thunder adds another coat of intrigue to an already captivating matchup between the Thunder and Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.

The defending champion Thunder are a potential dynasty in an era when no team has repeated since the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018, and the Spurs are on a mission to dethrone the Thunder and start talks of their own rule.

But beating a team in the regular season is one thing. Winning four of seven against Oklahoma City is altogether different – and much more difficult. The playoffs are a different beast with the ups and downs of a possession, a quarter, a half, a game, a series.

Stars are blazing, too.

Kia MVP winner (OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in 2024-25). MVP candidates (Gilgeous-Alexander and San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama in 2025-26). All-NBA performers (Gilgeous-Alexander in previous seasons and likely Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama and Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren this season). Kia Defensive Player of the Year (Wembanyama) and All-Defensive candidates in 2025-26 (Wembanyama and teammate Stephon Castle, and Oklahoma City’s Holmgren, Cason Wallace and Lu Dort). Kia Sixth Man of the Year (Spurs’ Keldon Johnson this season). A one-time Coach of the Year (Oklahoma City’s Mark Daigneault in 2023-24). A Coach of the Year finalist in 2025-26 (San Antonio’s Mitch Johnson).

Game 1 Monday in Oklahoma City (8:30 ET, NBC/Peacock) can’t get here fast enough.

Series schedule

Here’s how to watch the Thunder vs. Spurs series:

All times Eastern Standard Time

* = If necessary

Regular-season results

Top storyline

Oklahoma City’s depth. The Thunder’s 10-deep rotation, which includes Wallace off the bench, overwhelmed the Phoenix Suns in the first round and the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Semifinals.

The Thunder’s starters have a plus-11.3 points per 100 possessions net rating, and their reserves’ net rating is plus-7.8 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs.

Not including Jalen Williams, a starter who has missed the past six games with a hamstring injury, the Thunder have played 10 guys at least 10 minutes per game, and nine average at least 6.5 points in the playoffs, including Gilgeous-Alexander (29.1 points, 7.1 assists per game), Holmgren (18.6 points, 9.1 rebounds) and breakout star Ajay Mitchell (18.8 points, 4.9 assists, 4.0 rebounds per game).

Jared McCain and Wallace are shooting better than 46% on 3-pointers, and Mitchell, Holmgren, Dort, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe and Jaylin Williams are at least 36% from that range. Isaiah Hartenstein is averaging 9.9 points and 8.8 rebounds and is shooting 75.6%.

The roster is filled with ballhawks who produce steals, deflections and blocked shots. It’s as close to plug-and-play throughout the rotation as a team can get without a drop-off in production. Getting Williams back for this series is a strong possibility, too.

Keep your eyes on

Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama has shown all the signs of living up to the moment as the stakes increase with each game. But this is also his first playoffs and all the physical, emotional and mental experiences that come with it. How does he perform with a spot in the NBA Finals on the line? It’s a riveting subplot for the 7-foot-4, 22-year-old forward-center.

He had one moment when he lost his composure, elbowing Naz Reid and getting ejected for a flagrant foul two. Playoff lesson learned. He knows he needs to be on the court for the Spurs to be successful. This postseason, the Spurs score 118.3 points and allow 96.4 points per 100 possessions with Wembanyama on the court and 112.2/105.1 with him on the bench. It’s still a positive net rating when he’s not in the game but it is a 14.8 difference when he’s in the game.

He is a unique difference-maker.

In 10 playoff games – really less than that considering the flagrant two – Wembanyama averages 20.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, 4.1 blocks and 2.4 assists and shoots 53.8% from the field, 34.1% on 3s and 84.5% on free throws.

It’s not only how Wembanyama performs but how the Thunder decide to guard him on one end of the court and reduce his effectiveness as a rim protector on the other. Oklahoma City has size with the 7-foot-1 Holmgren and 7-foot Hartenstein, so that dueling strategy will be worth watching.

One more thing to watch for each team

For Oklahoma City: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The Lakers’ plan focused on getting the basketball out of Gilgeous-Alexander’s hands and making other players beat them.

What will the Spurs do against Gilgeous-Alexander? They have better perimeter defenders and more depth than the Lakers, giving them more options against him. But at this stage of his game, Gilgeous-Alexander, also the 2025 Finals MVP, understands how he can impact the game without scoring as much as his season average. Can the Spurs disrupt his game enough to make a difference?

For San Antonio: The magnitude of the moment.

Many Spurs players, including Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, Carter Bryant and coach Mitch Johnson, are participating in their first playoff run. While De’Aaron Fox is a veteran, he had just one playoff series prior to April.

This is unfamiliar territory for a young Spurs squad, and so far, they have passed the tests. The Minnesota Timberwolves took a 1-0 series lead in the conference semifinals, and the matchup was tied at 2-2. The Spurs then won at home in Game 5 and dominated the Timberwolves in Game 6 on the road.

But playing the Thunder in a best-of-7 presents a new and more difficult challenge. This rivalry is growing in intensity, and the Spurs are coming for the Thunder, and the Thunder are trying to hold off that charge.

One key number to know

12.0 — Over their eight playoff games, the Thunder have scored an average of 12.0 more points per 100 possessions than their opponents allowed in the regular season. Oklahoma City had the league’s No. 1 defense for the second straight season, but it’s been the offense that has fueled its 8-0 start. The Thunder defense has been about half as good as the offense, allowing 6.5 fewer points per 100 possessions than their opponents scored in the regular season.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has led the way with 29.1 points per game on a true shooting percentage of 63.1%, what would be his most efficient mark in his five postseasons. But the Thunder have also been slightly more efficient with him on the bench (126.2 scored per 100) than they’ve been with him on the floor (124.6 scored per 100), even though Jalen Williams has missed the last six games. That’s a big change from the regular season, when the offense was sub-par when Gilgeous-Alexander was off the floor.

The Spurs have had the No. 1 defense in the playoffs, and they had the second best regular-season defense against the Thunder, allowing just 109.2 per 100 over the five meetings. That includes just 99.6 allowed per 100 in Victor Wembanyama’s 126 minutes on the floor against the defending champs.

— John Schuhmann

The pick

Thunder in six. The Spurs are really good, no doubt about that. It’s just not their time. Not yet.

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Jeff Zillgitt has covered the NBA since 2008. You can email him at jzillgitt@nba.com, find his archive here and follow him on X.

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