The defending champion Celtics are seemingly locked in at No. 2 in the East, but have a key game in late March.
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Only 18 days and 143 games remain in the regular season.
Some of those games don’t mean much, but many of them do. There are (realistically) 21 teams still playing for playoff or SoFi NBA Play-In Tournament position, and maybe one more (the Portland Trail Blazers) with a slim chance of finishing in ninth or 10th place in the Western Conference.
Through Wednesday, there are 14 teams — six in the East and eight in the West — with winning records, and all 14 of them are at least eight games over .500. Here are some numbers and notes on how they’ve played against each other, what their schedule looks like over the last 18 days, and the one game each of them should have circled on their calendar.
Note: A rest-advantage game (or rest-disadvantage game) is one where one team played the day/night before, but the other (the team with the advantage) did not.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
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The Eastern Conference has two clear title contenders, and maybe we’re just waiting for a Cavs-Celtics matchup in the conference finals. But Teams 3-6 in the standings all have the potential to do some damage …
Records & efficiency, games played between top 6 teams in the East
| Team | GP | W | L | PCT | NetRtg | Rank | Rem. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland | 15 | 12 | 3 | .800 | +7.2 | 2 | 5 |
| Boston | 17 | 12 | 5 | .706 | +8.3 | 1 | 1 |
| Indiana | 16 | 8 | 8 | .500 | -4.6 | 5 | 2 |
| New York | 13 | 5 | 8 | .385 | +0.0 | 3 | 5 |
| Milwaukee | 15 | 5 | 10 | .333 | -4.5 | 4 | 3 |
| Detroit | 16 | 4 | 12 | .250 | -6.4 | 6 | 4 |
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
Rem. = Remaining games within the top six.
East 1. Cleveland Cavaliers (58-14)
Current situation: The Cavs (because they’d have a worse conference record) probably need to finish with more wins than the Celtics to earn the No. 1 seed in the East. Their magic number (combination of Cleveland wins and Boston losses) for that is six.
Schedule note: The Cavs’ improving defense could be tested down the stretch, with five games against teams that currently rank in the top 10 offensively and none against teams that rank in the bottom 10.
Game to circle: April 10 at Indiana – Those five games against top-10 offenses include two against the sixth-ranked Knicks, but the more intriguing matchup could be a visit to Indiana. The Pacers are maybe the Cavs’ most likely Eastern Conference semifinals opponent and have an offense that can be a pain in the butt to defend. The question is if the Cavs will have anything to play for in Game 80.
East 2. Boston Celtics (54-19)
Current situation: Looking at the overall league standings, no team is more locked into their spot than the Celtics. They appear unlikely to catch the Cavs or be caught by the Knicks.
Schedule note: The Celtics have the easiest remaining schedule (cumulative opponent winning percentage of .421) among the 14 teams currently with winning records, with only two of their nine games against the other 13.
Game to circle: March 31 at Memphis – A more relevant game would be their visit to New York on April 8, but the Celtics might not have anything to play for at that point. A visit to Memphis on Monday is an opportunity to avenge a December loss in which the Celtics allowed 42 points in transition, according to Synergy tracking.
East 3. New York Knicks (45-27)
Current situation: The Knicks have gone 5-5 over Jalen Brunson’s absence and still have some work to do to secure the East’s No. 3 seed.
Schedule note: They’re one of six teams with three back-to-backs remaining on their schedule. Their two meetings with the Cavs are both the second games of back-to-backs.
Game to circle: April 2 at Cleveland – The Knicks are famously 0-7 against the top three teams in the league (OKC, Cleveland & Boston), having allowed an incredible 127.9 points per 100 possessions over those seven games. They have three games remaining against the Cavs (x 2) and Celtics, though the last two of those (both at home) are in the last week of the season. They’ll be at a rest disadvantage (having played at home the night before) in Cleveland next Wednesday, but that may be the more likely opportunity to test themselves against a full-strength contender.
East 4. Indiana Pacers (42-30)
Current situation: The Pacers lead both Detroit and Milwaukee by two games in the loss column for the East’s No. 4 seed. They have the head-to-head tie-breaker over the Pistons (who have the toughest remaining schedule of the three), but not the Bucks.
Schedule note: After visiting the Wizards and Thunder this week, the Pacers will play six of their final eight games at home, where they had won eight straight before losing at the buzzer on Wednesday.
Game to circle: March 29 at Oklahoma City – The Pacers have just two games remaining within the top six in the East, and both are against the Cavs in the final week of the season. Their next big test is Saturday in Oklahoma City, a fun matchup of an elite offense and the league’s best defense. The Pacers led their first meeting with the Thunder for most of the game before OKC took over in the final few minutes.
East 5. Detroit Pistons (41-32)
Current situation: With the Bucks’ loss in Denver on Wednesday, the Pistons climbed into fifth place, though they may have a tough time remaining there because …
Schedule note: The Pistons have the toughest remaining schedule (cumulative opponent winning percentage of .598) among the 14 teams that currently have winning records, with seven of their nine games within the top 14. Their next three games are vs. Cleveland, at Minnesota and at Oklahoma City.
Games to circle: April 11 vs. Milwaukee, April 13 at Milwaukee – As things stand now, the Pistons’ most important games are the last two of the season, when they’ll play a home-and-home series with the Bucks. They’ve lost 27 of their last 28 games (including 11 straight) against Milwaukee and allowed 121.4 points per 100 possessions over two meetings this season.
East 6. Milwaukee Bucks (40-32)
Current situation: The Bucks fell into sixth place in the East on Wednesday and have lost seven of their last 11 games. They’re also without Damian Lillard indefinitely.
Schedule note: After hosting the Knicks on Friday, the Bucks will play five straight games against teams currently below .500. They’re 29-13 against the bottom 16 teams in the league, though they have narrow losses to the Magic and Suns this month.
Game to circle: March 28 vs. New York – That game on Friday could be a first-round preview, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to be back after missing the Bucks’ loss in Denver with a left foot issue. The Bucks have allowed 132 points per 100 possessions (their worst defensive mark vs. any opponent) and have lost their first two meetings with the Knicks.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
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In the Western Conference, there’s the Oklahoma City Thunder … and there’s everybody else. The difference in the loss column between the Thunder and the second-place Houston Rockets is 14 games — the same as the difference between the Rockets and the 13th-place San Antonio Spurs.
There is a clear line of demarcation between the eighth-place Timberwolves and the ninth-place Kings, but any of the teams in the No. 2-8 tier believe they can reach the Western Conference Finals.
Records & efficiency, games played between top 8 teams in the West
| Team | GP | W | L | PCT | NetRtg | Rank | Rem. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City | 23 | 16 | 7 | .696 | +6.6 | 1 | 4 |
| L.A. Lakers | 20 | 12 | 8 | .600 | +0.1 | 4 | 6 |
| Houston | 22 | 12 | 10 | .545 | +1.4 | 3 | 6 |
| Minnesota | 24 | 13 | 11 | .542 | +4.4 | 2 | 2 |
| Denver | 21 | 10 | 11 | .476 | -2.7 | 5 | 4 |
| Golden State | 22 | 10 | 12 | .455 | -2.8 | 6 | 5 |
| LA Clippers | 24 | 9 | 15 | .375 | -4.2 | 8 | 2 |
| Memphis | 20 | 6 | 14 | .300 | -3.4 | 7 | 5 |
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
Rem. = Remaining games within the top eight.
West 1. Oklahoma City Thunder (60-12)
Current situation: The Thunder have clinched the top seed in the West and lead the Cavs by two games for the overall No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.
Schedule note: They’ll play six of their next seven games at home, a stretch that includes all four of their remaining games within the top eight in the West.
Games to circle: April 6 and April 8 vs. the Lakers – The Thunder haven’t seen the Lakers since November, and L.A. has come a long way since then, improving defensively and adding the player (Luka Dončić) who eliminated Oklahoma City in the 2024 playoffs. They’ll play a two-game set in Oklahoma City in Games 78 and 79 for the Thunder.
West 2. Houston Rockets (47-26)
Current situation: The Rockets are at the top of the “everybody else” tier, having won 10 of their last 11 games. But they’re still just two games in the loss column ahead of the fifth-place Grizzlies.
Schedule note: The Rockets are tied (with Portland and Utah) for the most road-heavy remaining schedule, with six of their nine games on the road.
Game to circle: March 31 at Lakers – Every win on this 10-1 stretch has come against a team currently below .500, and the Rockets will play their next two games against teams — Utah and Phoenix — in that below-.500 group. But six of their final seven games are within the top eight in the West, with two of those coming at Crypto.com Arena. The first of those two is Monday, when the Rockets will be at a rest disadvantage.
West 3. Denver Nuggets (46-28)
Current situation: After going 2-3 over Nikola Jokić’s absence, the Nuggets got the reigning Kia MVP back on Wednesday and beat the Bucks to remain in third place in the West. But they’re still tied in the loss column with the two teams — the Lakers and Grizzlies — directly behind them.
Schedule note: The Nuggets are the only team in the league with only eight games remaining, and they’ll have a rest advantage for two of their four remaining games within the top eight in the West.
Game to circle: April 1 vs. Minnesota – Since Game 6 of the 2024 Western Conference semifinals, the Nuggets have lost five straight games to the Wolves (who are their potential first-round opponent). With Jokić back, the season-series finale on Tuesday is an opportunity to figure things out offensively against a team that’s held them to just a point per possession over that five-game losing streak.
West 4. Los Angeles Lakers (44-28)
Current situation: The Lakers ended their three-game losing streak and kept themselves in the top four in the West by winning in Indiana (on LeBron James’ buzzer-beating tip-in) on Wednesday.
Schedule note: When you account for opponent strength, location and rest, the Lakers have the league’s second toughest remaining schedule. Four of their 10 games are against teams currently below .500, but three of them are on the road against teams — the Bulls, Mavs and Blazers — that have been relatively competitive. The Lakers will be at a rest disadvantage in two of those three, including in Chicago on Thursday.
Game to circle: March 29 at Memphis – Remaining in the top four should be important for the Lakers, who have the league’s biggest home-road winning percentage differential (28-9 vs. 16-19) and have also lost their last seven road playoff games. Their most important game in that regard is Saturday in Memphis, with the home team having won the first three meetings between the two 44-28 teams in the West. With the much better conference record, the Lakers will hold the tie-breaker no matter the result this weekend.
West 5. Memphis Grizzlies (44-28)
Current situation: The fifth-place Grizzlies are 8-11 over the last six weeks, but are closer to second place (2 1/2 games behind the Rockets) than to sixth (three games ahead of the Clippers).
Schedule note: The Grizzlies are one of four teams — the Pistons, Suns and Spurs are the others — with a league-high seven remaining games against teams currently with winning records. Five of those seven are within the top eight in the West.
Game to circle: April 11 at Denver – The Grizzlies have one game remaining against each of the two teams (the Nuggets and Lakers) with whom they’re tied in the loss column. As noted above, their visit from the Lakers on Saturday is huge, and maybe things will be different by the last weekend of the season. But Game 81 in Denver, one of two rest-disadvantage games remaining for Memphis, could also have a lot on the line.
West 6. LA Clippers (41-31)
Current situation: The Clippers have seen dramatic improvement offensively since the All-Star break and have won nine of their last 11 games to climb into the top six in the West. They hold the head-to-head tie-breaker with the Warriors (3-0) but not the Wolves (0-3)
Schedule note: The Clippers are one of six teams with three back-to-backs left on their schedule, set to begin a stretch of five games in seven days with a visit to Cleveland on Sunday afternoon. While Kawhi Leonard has played more than 40 minutes in each of their last two games, he hasn’t played in both games of a back-to-back this season.
Game to circle: April 9 vs. Houston – The last of those three back-to-backs are home games against the Spurs and Rockets in the season’s final week. The Clippers are 0-3 against Houston, but all three games came in 2024 before Leonard’s debut. Both teams should still have something to play for in Game 80.
West 7. Golden State Warriors (41-31)
Current situation: The Warriors are 16-4 with Jimmy Butler but 0-2 on their current six-game road trip. They also don’t have a guaranteed playoff spot in the West and are tied with the Clippers (who hold the head-to-head tie-breaker).
Schedule note: The Warriors are one of two teams (the Rockets are the other) that are done playing the opposite conference. All 10 of their remaining games are against the West, five of which are within the top eight.
Game to circle: April 13 vs. the Clippers – The team with whom they’re currently tied is the team the Warriors will face on the last day of the season. They’ve scored an anemic 97 points per 100 possessions (their worst mark vs. any opponent) over the first three meetings, which all came in 2024 and well before they acquired Butler.
West 8. Minnesota Timberwolves (41-32)
Current situation: The Wolves are in eighth place, but they’re just a game in the loss column behind the sixth-place Clippers. They have the West’s fourth-best point differential, are one of four teams that rank in the top 10 on both ends of the floor, and …
Schedule note: The Wolves have the easiest remaining schedule (cumulative opponent winning percentage of .444) in the Western Conference. Four of their final nine games are against the league’s bottom seven teams.
Game to circle: April 10 at Memphis – While the Nuggets would surely like to get off the schneid vs. Minnesota, the Wolves would probably like to do the same vs. the Grizzlies. They’ve lost their two meetings with Memphis by a total of four points, having scored just 13 points on 21 clutch possessions. This will be Game 80 for the Wolves and the end of a five-game trip that begins in Denver on Tuesday.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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