Ayo Dosunmu scores a playoff career-high 25 points in a Game 3 win over the Nuggets.
That famous playoff saying, “A series doesn’t begin until each team has won on the other’s floor” needs a corollary. What sage observation can similarly be applied to a best-of-seven confrontation in which one team has lost two in a row and is on the verge of falling into the pit of 3-1 victimhood?
“A series is all but over when …?” It wouldn’t exactly trip off the tongue, but there’s no denying the veracity. In NBA history, 298 teams have fallen into a 3-1 hole – 285 of them (95.6%) never climbed out.
Of those that did, climbing out sometimes took a toll. The 2020 Denver Nuggets twice faced and survived 3-1 deficits against the Utah Jazz and LA Clippers, only to fall in five games in the Western Conference Finals to the Lakers, all in the Orlando “bubble” postseason.
The 2026 Nuggets would rather not put their resilience to the test in Game 4 of their first-round series against Minnesota tonight (8:30 ET, ABC). But it might not be their call, given how the Timberwolves have dealt with them the past two meetings.
Here are three things to watch for with the cranky/feisty rivals back in Target Center.
1. Jokić dialing in at one end
When a team’s best player doesn’t excel in a playoff series, a certain calm eventually can settle in, a shoulder shrug from the “Well, what can you expect?” school that explains and eases everything. The tough part is getting to that eventually.
The Nuggets and their fans aren’t there yet with Nikola Jokić, their three-time Kia MVP and unquestioned leader. Frankly, they hope they don’t get there and that Jokić turns things around in Game 4.
What we’ve seen through three games has been some of Jokić’s biggest struggles at both ends in his personal playoff history. Defense has never been prominent in his quiver of marvelous skills, and Minnesota paint- and rim-attackers have been on a mission to remind the world. Knowing that the Denver big man has dual responsibilities there – avoiding foul trouble first, thwarting the scorer second – the Wolves have put him to the test, which he and any helpers mostly have failed.
Consider: The Nuggets have been outscored so far in the series by 11 points. But Minnesota has dominated in paint points, 174-116, making 61.3% (87 of 142) shots from so close.
Look, the Nuggets have enough of a chore dealing with their star’s breather minutes. They don’t need to add “while yanked for foul trouble” to their to-do list. Besides, they have won plenty with the big guy being an average defender.
Picking up Jokić’s slack on offense, though, is a task largely foreign to Denver. His reign as arguably the NBA’s best talent dates back to the start of this decade. So his relative struggle right now probably is best corrected by Jokić himself.
Top priority: Hit the shots Minnesota wants to give him. A 40% shooter from the arc the past two seasons, Jokić is 5-of-24 on 3-pointers in this series (that includes 2-for-10 in Game 3). He was only 5-of-16 on 2-pointers, too. And Jokić’s passing acumen suffered – with fewer assists (three) than turnovers (four) – because he wasn’t putting enough stress on the Wolves’ defense to open up teammates.
“If I make all the shots, then the defense is going to react,” Jokić said. “So I think that’s why I couldn’t get anybody involved. … I think I needed to do a bit better job scoring.”
Seems unfair to ask a player who does so much so well to do more. But the NBA postseason is all about “more.”
2. Nuggets’ role players in spotlight
Denver has another star, guard Jamal Murray, coming off his best season. He’ll be asked for more, too – mostly, playing more efficiently after shooting 35.9% through three games and 25.3% on 3-pointers to get his 25.3 ppg.
Then there are the others. Consider this: No Denver starter in Game 3 besides Jokić and Murray even managed one field goal in the first half, by the end of which their team trailed 61-39. That’s a terminal scoring imbalance.
Christian Braun finished the night with two points on free throws, period. Cam Johnson, the questionable replacement for Michael Porter Jr. from recent seasons, was 2-of-6 for six points. Spencer Jones, subbing for injured Aaron Gordon, also scored six.
And they contributed to their own meager output, according to coach David Adelman, by not doing enough other things on offense – cutting, screening – to create openings.
3. Wolves keep buying Edwards time
Sometimes the cameras catch Anthony Edwards limping. Sometimes the Wolves’ normally dynamic scorer isn’t. Frankly, it doesn’t really matter how much his sore right knee bothers him because a fleet of teammates has stepped into the breach on his behalf.
The latest was Ayo Dosunmu, the February acquisition from Chicago. He revved up Minnesota’s pace and led off the bench in Game 3 with 25 points (all 10 buckets in the paint) and nine assists. At other times, ace defender Jaden McDaniels has covered at both ends – he was in attack mode on Thursday vs. Murray while adding 20 points and 10 rebounds.
Donte DoiVincenzo is the Wolves’ whirling-and-diving dervish who provides hustle plays on top of, in Game 3, his 15 points. And center Rudy Gobert has made some voters for Kia Defensive Player of the Year look silly by leaving him off their three-spot award ballot, based on his work vs. Jokić in this series.
The good news for Minnesota is that Edwards wasn’t even on the injury list as Game 4 neared. The better his knee feels, the better he’ll probably shoot (just 39% overall and 25% on threes in the series). And the more dangerous Edwards will become, with Denver looking so newly vulnerable.
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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
