The Lakers are 13-4 but have played the league’s 7th-easiest schedule in terms of cumulative opponent winning percentage.
We’re almost* at the quarter mark of the 2025-26 season, when teams have played an average of 20 games and we can place greater trust in records and stats. Ultimately, wins and losses are all that matter when it comes to who makes the playoffs and with which seed.
* The precise quarter mark of the season (308 of 1,230 games played) will be when Monday’s nine-game slate is complete.
But there’s still a lot of basketball to be played and context that can be added to the current standings. That context — strength of schedule, point differential and shooting luck — can tell us just how real each team’s record is and whether we can expect them to improve or drop off in the coming weeks.
Here are some teams that, according to the data, have records that may be a little deceptive …
Better than their record
1. Orlando Magic (11-8)
After a disappointing 1-4 start, the Magic have won 10 of their last 14 games. They’ve seen the league’s biggest jump in points scored per 100 possessions from last season, and there’s reason to believe that they’ll ultimately be a top-four team in the East …
- The Magic have a point differential (plus-5.3 per game, fifth in the East) of a team that’s 13-6. They’re 4-4 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes and 7-4 otherwise, with wins of 41, 31 and 28 points.
- Their opponents have overperformed in regard to the quality of their shots. The Magic rank fourth in opponent shot quality, according to tracking data, behind only the Thunder, Pistons and Spurs. But they rank 16th in opponent effective field goal percentage. They’ve already played six of their 13 scheduled games against teams that currently rank in the top five on offense.
One of the Magic’s worst defensive games of the season was a loss in Detroit on Oct. 29. They’ll be back at Little Caesars Arena for their final Emirates NBA Cup pool play game on Friday (7:30 p.m. ET, League Pass), when first place in East Group B will be on the line.
2. LA Clippers (5-13)
The Clippers have been the league’s most disappointing team, having seen the league’s biggest jump in points allowed per 100 possessions (the Pacers are the only team that’s seen a bigger drop in winning percentage from last season). But the door is open for the Clippers to climb in the West and they’ve got reasons to believe that things will get better …
- They’ve played the league’s sixth-toughest schedule (cumulative opponent winning percentage of .544) and it’s been a little road-heavy, with only eight of their 18 games having come at the Intuit Dome. Last season, the Clippers were 9.0 points per 100 possessions better at home (plus-9.4) than they were on the road (plus-0.4), with that being the league’s biggest differential.
- They rank 14th in opponent shot quality (a little higher than they ranked last season), but 25th in opponent effective field-goal percentage. They rank fourth in how much their opponents have overperformed according to their shot quality.
After playing their last seven games on the road, the Clippers are back home and will face two bottom-six offenses — those of the Grizzlies and Mavs — this weekend.
3. Charlotte Hornets (4-14)
With the Wizards getting a win on Tuesday, the Hornets have the league’s longest active losing streak at seven games. But they’ve been good offensively (119.6 points scored per 100 possessions) with LaMelo Ball on the floor and the data says they’re probably better than a 4-14 team …
- The Hornets have the point differential of a team that’s 6-12. Their four wins have all come by double-digits and they’re the only team that hasn’t won a game (0-5) that was within five points in the last five minutes.
- Their opponents have overperformed their shot quality by the league’s widest margin. The Hornets rank 12th in opponent shot quality, but 29th in opponent effective field goal percentage, with those opponents having shot a league-high 41.6% from 3-point range.
The Hornets will face the Bulls (fourth in 3-point percentage) on Friday (7:30 p.m. ET, League Pass), after which they’ll play four of their next five games against teams — Toronto (x 2), New York and Denver — that rank in the top 10 offensively.
Toughest schedule thus far: Sacramento (5-14)
The Kings’ opponents have had a cumulative opponent winning percentage of .643, the league’s toughest mark by a wide margin. They’ve already played three games each against the Thunder, Nuggets and Wolves, plus two more against the Suns. But the Kings also have the point differential of a team that’s 3-16.
Not as good as their record
Brandon Ingram and the Raptors have enjoyed the NBA’s 4th-easiest schedule to date.
1. Toronto Raptors (14-5)
The Raptors have been the league’s biggest surprise, seeing the biggest jumps in both winning percentage and point differential per 100 possessions. They’re 6-3 against other teams currently with winning records, but there are a couple of notes of caution …
- They’ve played the league’s fourth-easiest schedule, with their opponents having a cumulative winning percentage of just .420. The Raptors (7-2) and Celtics (5-4) are tied for the most games played against the nine teams that have fewer than six wins.
- The Raptors rank eighth in opponent effective field-goal percentage, but they’re just 22nd in opponent shot quality. So they’ve been a little lucky regarding how poorly their opponents have shot.
Up next for the Raptors is their only stretch of five games in seven days, which includes two games against the 4-14 Hornets. The first is in Charlotte on Saturday (6 p.m. ET, League Pass).
2. Los Angeles Lakers (13-4)
LeBron James is back, Luka Dončić leads the league in scoring, and the Lakers are in great shape. They’ve won five straight games and 11 of their last 13.
- The Lakers are in second place, but have the West’s seventh-best point differential (plus-3.5 per game), that of a team that’s 11-6. All four of their losses have been by double-digits (two by 20-plus) and they’re the only undefeated team (6-0) in games that were within five points in the last five minutes.
- They’ve played the league’s seventh-easiest schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.452), with only six of their 17 games having come against the other 16 teams that currently have winning records.
The schedule remains soft through the weekend, with the Lakers facing the Mavs and Pelicans over the next three days. But it will get tougher after that.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (18-1)
There’s no doubt that the Thunder are the best team in the league. They’re just the fifth team in NBA history to have won at least 18 of its first 19 games and the first to have outscored its opponents by more than 300 points at this point in the season. They’ve somehow allowed 7.9 fewer points per 100 possessions than any other team.
But the Thunder are probably not going 76-6, as their current point differential would project …
- They’ve played the league’s easiest schedule, by a healthy margin, regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage (.352). They can’t play the best team in the league, but they’ve also played just four of their 19 games against the other 16 teams that have winning records through Wednesday.
- They’ve played just two of their 19 games against teams — the Rockets and Lakers — that currently rank in the top 10 offensively, while they’ve played 11 against teams that rank in the bottom 10 on offense. That includes eight games against the bottom five.
Of course, the champs have played a role in how efficiently those teams have scored, and they’ve held their opponents to an average of 10.3 fewer points per 100 possessions than they’ve scored against other defenses.
Jalen Williams is expected to make his season debut when the Thunder face the Suns for the first time and for first place in West Group A on Friday (9:30 p.m. ET, League Pass).
* * *
John Schuhmann has covered the NBA for more than 20 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Bluesky.
