Playoff Power Rankings: Where all 8 teams stand as conference semifinals begin

Playoffs record: 4-0

OffRtg: 117.4 (4) DefRtg: 97.6 (1) NetRtg: +19.8 (2) Pace: 102.6 (1)

First-round results: Defeated Memphis 4-0
Conference semifinals: vs. (4) Denver

The Thunder had the best regular-season point differential in NBA history, and won Game 1 by 51. They had the best record (18-10) after trailing by double-digits for any team in the 29 seasons for which we have play-by-play data, and they came back from 29 down to win Game 3. They’ve been both dominant and resilient.

Three takeaways

• The Thunder held the Grizzlies to 19.7 fewer points per 100 possessions than Memphis scored in the regular season (117.2, sixth). That’s the second biggest regular-season-to-first-round drop-off for any playoff team in the 29 years of play-by-play data. The biggest belongs to last year’s Pelicans, who were swept by … the Thunder.

• They clobbered Memphis while shooting just 31.3% from 3-point range, the worst mark among teams that advanced out of the first round. The Thunder committed 8.8 fewer turnovers than the Grizzlies, the second-best turnover differential for any playoff series in the 48 seasons that turnovers have been counted.

• The Thunder outscored the Grizzlies by 9.9 points per 100 possessions in 51 minutes with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein on the floor together, but were a plus-33.1 per 100 in 108 total minutes with one on the floor without the other. The difference was entirely about the offensive end of the floor (107.2 vs. 130.4 scored per 100).

Depth should be an obvious advantage in the conference semifinals for the Thunder, who played 10 or more players (even in the close games) in the first round. They outscored Denver by 22.5 points per 100 possessions in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 45 minutes off the floor in the regular-season series.

Next game: Mon. vs. DEN, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Playoffs record: 4-1

OffRtg: 117.4 (3) DefRtg: 103.8 (2) NetRtg: +13.7 (3) Pace: 90.4 (15)

First-round results: Defeated Orlando 4-1
Conference semifinals: vs. New York

The Celtics had a brief stumble in the first round, losing an ugly Game 3 in Orlando. But they’re in the conference semifinals for the seventh time in the last eight postseasons, and they’re facing a team they’ve dominated over the last two.

Three takeaways

• The offense, overall, was efficient, scoring 8.3 more points per 100 possessions than the Magic allowed in the regular season. The Celtics took just 40% of their shots from 3-point range in the first round, seeing, by far, the biggest drop in 3-point rate from the regular season. They touched the paint on 66% of their possessions, up from just 58% (the league’s lowest rate) in the regular season, per Second Spectrum tracking.

• Paolo Banchero led the first round in usage rate (36.5%), indicating that the Celtics aren’t going to worry much about sending extra defenders to the ball. Jalen Brunson’s usage rate in the four regular-season meetings of 29.5% was just his 14th highest vs. any opponent, but still higher than his overall regular-season mark (28.9%).

• With Jayson Tatum missing Game 2 against Orlando and Jrue Holiday (hamstring) missing 3-5, the Celtics have had all six of their top players (their preferred starters plus Al Horford) for only 18 of their 87 games. But bench minutes were pretty good in the first round, with Boston outscoring Orlando by almost 27 points per 100 possessions in Sam Hauser’s 74 minutes.

The Celtics have won eight of their last nine games against the Knicks, with the offensive numbers (130.2 points scored per 100 possessions over the four games) this year being ridiculous. The spotlight on Monday could be on their ability to defend Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns without sending help. Boston’s injury report for Game 1 is clear, so we can expect Holiday to make his return and spend some time defending both of the Knicks’ stars.

Next game: Mon. vs. NYK, 7 p.m. ET, TNT

Playoffs record: 4-1

OffRtg: 131.1 (1) DefRtg: 106.8 (3) NetRtg: +24.3 (1) Pace: 94.1 (7)

First-round results: Defeated Miami 4-0
Conference semifinals: Down 0-1 vs. Indiana.

After torching the Heat for four games, the Cavs fell into an early hole against the Pacers and couldn’t complete a comeback from a double-digit deficit in Game 1 of the conference semifinals. It was noted in this space two weeks ago that the common theme from when they’ve lost is hot 3-point shooting from their opponents, and Indiana was 19-for-36 (53%) from beyond the arc on Sunday.

Three takeaways

• League-wide efficiency has been lower in the playoffs than it was in the regular season, but the Cavs have scored a ridiculous 131.1 points per 100 possessions over their five games. Their 136.2 per 100 in the first round was 24.2 more than the Heat allowed in the regular season (112.0), with that being the biggest such differential in any first-round series in the 29 years for which we have play-by-play data. Their effective field goal percentage of 63.0% against Miami was the highest for any team in any playoff series in NBA history.

• They led the first round in both 3-point percentage (44.0%) and 3-point rate (51.2% of their shots), and their 19.3 made 3-pointers per game tied their record (from the conference semis in 2016) for a playoff series.

• The Cavs have been without Darius Garland (toe sprain) for the last three games, and no Cleveland lineup has played more than 32 minutes in the playoffs. The offense has been more than fine (134 points scored per 100 possessions) in 68 minutes with Donovan Mitchell off the floor over the three games without Garland, but Mitchell was just 1-for-11 from beyond the arc (tied for the worst 3-point shooting game with at least 10 attempts of his career) on Sunday.

The Cavs set 16 ball-screens with the guy that Tyrese Haliburton was guarding in Game 1, but didn’t score very efficiently (0.79 points per chance) with that action, per Second Spectrum tracking. Don’t expect them to give up on it, but Mitchell might be more aggressive in attacking his counterpart instead of pulling up from deep.

Next game: Tue. vs. IND, 7 p.m. ET, TNT

Playoffs record: 4-1

OffRtg: 116.7 (5) DefRtg: 109.1 (4) NetRtg: +7.6 (4) Pace: 92.0 (13)

First-round results: Defeated Los Angeles 4-1 
Conference semifinals: vs. Golden State

For the first time in franchise history, the Wolves have won a playoff series in consecutive postseasons. Few people picked them to beat the Lakers, but it wasn’t much of an upset given that, statistically, the Wolves were the much better team in the regular season.

Three takeaways

• The Lakers scored 118.4 points per 100 possessions in their 23 regular-season games with both Luka Dončić and LeBron James, but scored just 109.1 (13th) in the first round. L.A. took only 40% of its shots in the paint, down from 47% in the regular season, also ranking last in the percentage of their possessions (57%) that came with a paint touch.

• The Lakers still shot more effectively in the series than the Wolves. But thanks to big advantages in both turnovers (3.4 fewer per game) and offensive rebounds (3.4 more per game), the Wolves averaged 9.6 more shooting opportunities. Anthony Edwards’ assist/turnover ratio of 5.17 (31/6) was up from his 1.44 in the regular season.

• Per Second Spectrum tracking, the Wolves have had 40.5 isolations per 100 possessions, by far the highest rate in the playoffs. Edwards (86) and Julius Randle (65) ranked first and eighth, respectively, in total isolation possessions … but they scored just 0.86 points per chance when they isolated. That mark ranks 13th.

The Warriors were the only team with three regular-season wins against the Wolves, and all four games came before Golden State added Jimmy Butler. Bench minutes were an issue, with Minnesota getting outscored by 25.6 points per 100 possessions in Edwards’ 41 minutes off the floor.

Next game: Tue. vs. GSW, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Playoffs record: 5-1

OffRtg: 118.7 (2) DefRtg: 111.2 (7) NetRtg: +7.5 (5) Pace: 97.8 (5)

First-round results: Defeated Milwaukee 4-1
Conference semifinals: Up 1-0 vs. Cleveland.

The Pacers handled their business against the Bucks with an efficient and balanced offense in the first round, and then surprised the Cavs in Game 1 on Sunday. They lost Game 1 in all three of their 2024 playoff series.

Three takeaways

• The Pacers had the second most efficient offense in the first round, scoring 5.3 more points per 100 possessions than Milwaukee allowed in the regular season. They led the first round in ball movement (384 passes per 24 minutes of possession), player movement (11.6 miles traveled per 24 minutes) and assist rate (68.8%). Not coincidentally, seven players averaged between 10 and 20 points per game.

• The offense wasn’t quite as balanced, but it was just as potent in Cleveland on Sunday, even though the Pacers committed 17 turnovers. They shot better than 50% from 3-point range for just the fourth time in their 88 games, with Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith combining to shoot 9-for-12 from beyond the arc. It was just the second time this season that a team made at least 10 more 3s than the Cavs.

• The Pacers’ starting lineup was a plus-16 in 14.2 minutes on Sunday and has now outscored opponents by 21.1 points per 100 possessions, the best mark among the 12 lineups that have played at least 50 playoff minutes. The defense continues to be stellar (98.6 allowed per 100 in 138 minutes) with Nembhard and Pascal Siakam on the floor together.

The Pacers can’t expect to shoot 53% from 3-point range again in Game 2 on Tuesday, but they can take better care of the ball. They’ll also need to be better on the glass going forward.

Next game: Tue. @ CLE, 7 p.m. ET, TNT

Playoffs record: 4-3

OffRtg: 111.7 (8) DefRtg: 111.5 (8) NetRtg: +0.2 (8) Pace: 93.2 (8)

First-round results: Defeated Houston 4-3
Conference semifinals: vs. Minnesota

The Warriors missed an opportunity to close out the Rockets in Game 6 at home, but survived Game 7 in Houston thanks to a huge performance (33 points on 12-for-15 shooting) from Buddy Hield. They’ve now reached the conference semifinals in eight of their 11 seasons under coach Steve Kerr.

Three takeaways

• The Warriors’ new starting lineup — Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Hield, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green — played more than twice as many minutes together in the first round (58) as they did in the regular season (27).

• Butler has the second highest free-throw rate (60.3 attempts per 100 shots from the field) among 65 players with at least 50 field goal attempts in the playoffs, but there are five Warriors in the bottom 10 (Hield in the only one of the 65 that hasn’t attempted a free throw) and they were outscored by 46 points from the line over the seven games. They were a plus-102 from beyond the arc, taking 49.8% of their shots (the second highest rate in the first round) from 3-point range.

• Jonathan Kuminga got a few chances to play (he was the first guy off the bench in Game 7), but the Warriors were outscored by 18.1 points per 100 possessions (scoring an anemic 90.2 per 100) in his 50 minutes on the floor.

The Warriors were the worst rebounding team in the first round, and their next opponent (Minnesota) led the first round in offensive rebounding percentage. So the glass will be their No. 1 concern when the conference semifinals begin on Tuesday.

Next game: Tue. @ MIN, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Playoffs record: 4-3

OffRtg: 115.3 (7) DefRtg: 115.9 (11) NetRtg: -0.6 (11) Pace: 92.1 (11)

First-round results: Defeated LA Clippers 4-3
Conference semifinals: vs. Oklahoma City.

Instead of blowing a 20-point lead in Game 7 at home (like they did in the 2024 West semis), the Nuggets built on it, blowing the Clippers out to reach the conference semifinals for the sixth time in the last seven postseasons. David Adelman is now the only coach in NBA history with more playoff wins (four) than regular-season wins (three).

Three takeaways

• The Nuggets’ offense ranked seventh in the first round, but they scored 5.9 more points per 100 possessions than the Clippers’ third-ranked defense allowed in the regular season. Only the Cleveland and Boston offenses were better regarding that “adjusted” metric. The Nuggets’ two most-used lineups (their starters and their lineup with Russell Westbrook in Michael Porter Jr.’s place) scored 124.5 and 122.7 points per 100 possessions, respectively, the best and fourth-best marks among 12 lineups that have played at least 50 minutes in the playoffs.

• Unsurprisingly, the Nuggets have the lowest-ranked bench of the eight teams still playing. They were outscored with Nikola Jokić off the floor in every game but Game 7.

• The Nuggets are unlikely to win the possession battle against the Thunder, so they must continue to shoot well over the next two weeks. They have four of the 16 players who shot 40% or better on at least 25 3-point attempts in the first round, with Westbrook (13-for-31, 42%) being one of those four players. It seems doubtful that he can keep that up.

The Nuggets were one of only five teams with a regular-season win in Oklahoma City, where they’ll begin the conference semis on Monday night. Jamal Murray scored 34 points in that March 10 victory, with 31 of those 34 points coming against Thunder players other than Lu Dort, who was his primary defender. Getting Dort off Murray could be the No. 1 priority for the Denver offense in the next two weeks.

Next game: Mon. @ OKC, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Playoffs record: 4-2

OffRtg: 109.8 (11) DefRtg: 109.4 (5) NetRtg: +0.4 (7) Pace: 97.9 (3)

First-round results: Defeated Detroit 4-2
Conference semifinals: vs. Boston

Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns hit a bunch of big shots as the Knicks survived a tight series against the Pistons. The only one of the six games that wasn’t within three points in the last three minutes was the one (Game 1) in which the Knicks trailed by eight points with less than 10 minutes left before going on a 21-0 run.

Three takeaways

• Brunson’s time of possession (9.2 minutes per game) is down from the last two postseasons (10 and 9.9). The Knicks ran just 20.4 Brunson/Towns ball-screens per 100 possessions, down from 27.5 per 100 in the regular season, according to Second Spectrum tracking. But their most ball-screens in the series (21) game in Game 6, so maybe we’ll see more against the Celtics, who will likely guard Towns with a forward (Jayson Tatum), just like the Pistons did most of the time.

• When you compare the Pistons’ numbers in the first round to the regular season, it was a better series for the Knicks on defense than it was on offense. And there were some terrific sequences from OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart on that end of the floor.

• Brunson was the screener’s defender on 127 ball-screens, by far the most of any guard, in the first round. And it’s fair to say that the way he defended those ball-screens won’t discourage the Celtics from putting him in many more actions over the next 4-7 games. They attacked Towns a lot more in the regular season, and scored 130.2 points per 100 possessions over the four games, the best mark for any team against an in-conference opponent in the regular season.

To make up for their defensive issues, Brunson and Towns will need to be lights out on offense. Perhaps that means putting Towns in the post against smaller defenders on Monday.

Next game: Mon. @ BOS, 7 p.m. ET, TNT