NBA Storylines: February's strength of schedule rankings

The Blazers and Magic have 2 of the NBA’s easier schedules in February.

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The season is 57% done and the Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder each have commanding leads at the top of their conferences as both lead the second-place teams by six games in the loss column.

Nothing below the top two teams is nearly as clear.

February is the year’s shortest month and it’s also short on NBA games (176 total), with the All-Star break in the middle. But February’s schedule will go a long way in shaping who makes the playoffs and with what seed.

Here’s a schedule breakdown for February.

Note: A rest-advantage game (or rest-disadvantage game) is one where one team played the day/night before, but the other (the team with the advantage) did not. Teams are 98-77 (.560) in rest-advantage games, 52-38 (.578) at home and 46-39 (.541) on the road, through Jan. 30.

February strength of schedule

Here’s a review of the February schedule for every team, sorted from the toughest (regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage) to the easiest:

OppPCT = Cumulative opponent winning percentage (for games through Jan. 30)
B2B = Back-to-backs (includes four Jan. 31-Feb. 1 back-to-backs)
H | R = Home games | Road games

Eastern Conference notes

• The Hawks have a bottom-10 offense, having seen the league’s third-biggest drop in points scored per 100 possessions. Their February schedule offers them just one game (the fewest in the league) against a team — Washington — that currently ranks in the bottom 10 defensively.

• The Celtics have four big February tests at the top of the Eastern Conference, with two games each against the first-place Cavs and third-place Knicks. The first two of those games are on the road next week.

• The Nets are one of two teams — the Pistons are the other — with a league-high four rest-advantage games in February. Those include three of their five games within the bottom five in the East.

• The Hornets will begin February with the final four games of a nine-game homestand (the longest in the league this season). Then they’ll play nine straight games on the road, a stretch broken up by the All-Star break.

• The Bulls will play three of their final seven pre-break games against the Pistons, finishing a three-game trip in Detroit on Sunday and then playing a back-to-back in Chicago right before the break.

• The Cavs‘ top-ranked offense will play five of its 11 February games against teams that rank in the top 10 defensively. That includes two games against the Celtics, the first in Cleveland on Tuesday.

• The Pistons have just four February games (including just one of their first nine) against teams currently above .500. All four are at home with the opponent playing the second game of a back-to-back in each.

• The Pacers have the East’s second-best record (10-5) vs. the West. After hosting the Hawks on Saturday, will have a stretch where they’re playing seven of nine games against the opposite conference (with two of those seven against the Clippers).

• The Heat have the East’s most road-heavy February schedule, with only three of their 12 games in Miami. Nine of their first 10 February games are on the road, with the only exception being a visit from the Celtics on Feb. 10.

• The Bucks have the league’s toughest February schedule regarding opposing defenses, with six of their 12 games against teams (all in the Western Conference) that are in the top 10 defensively. They’ll be at a rest disadvantage when they visit the top-ranked Thunder on Monday.

• The Knicks have the East’s second-toughest February schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage. Their toughest five-game stretch of the season is Feb. 21 to March 2, which includes games in Cleveland, Boston and Memphis.

• The Magic will begin February with the final four games of a six-game trip (their longest of the season). They’ll then play 10 of their next 11 games at home, a stretch that extends into March. That stretch also includes eight games against teams that currently have losing records.

• The Sixers have the most East-heavy February schedule, with 10 of their 11 games within the conference. That includes three games against teams — Miami, Detroit and Chicago — they have a realistic chance of catching in the standings.

• The Raptors have the league’s toughest February schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage. Nine of their 12 games are against teams with winning records through Thursday. They’re currently 6-22 against that group, though they were 2-4 in January.

• The Wizards have played the league’s toughest schedule by a healthy margin, and their game in Minnesota on Saturday will end a stretch where they will have played 11 of 12 games against teams that currently have winning records. They’ll finally get some schedule relief, though, with only nine of their final 34 games against teams currently over .500.

Western Conference notes

• The Mavs begin February with one of their toughest stretches of schedule. They finish a five-game trip in Cleveland, Philadelphia and Boston, then return home to face the Rockets and Kings.

• The Nuggets have the league’s easiest February schedule concerning opposing offenses, with only one of their 12 games against a team — ninth-ranked Indiana — that is currently in the top 10 offensively. Seven of their first eight February games are against teams that have losing records and currently rank in the bottom six on offense.

• The Warriors are one of three teams — the Heat and Spurs are the others — with a league-low three home games in February. They’ll go into the All-Star break with the first of two six-game road trips.

• The Rockets are one of two teams — the Suns are the other — with a league-high five back-to-backs in February. They currently have the league’s second-biggest differential between their record with rest (28-10, .737) and their record in the second games of back-to-backs (4-5, .444). They can improve on that latter mark with the no-rest games in February coming against Brooklyn, Toronto, Golden State, Utah and San Antonio.

• The Clippers will come out of the All-Star break with seven straight road games, though two of those are visits to their old home in downtown L.A. They’ll also host the Lakers (whom they trail by a half-game for fifth place in the West) on Tuesday.

• The Lakers have the league’s third-biggest differential between their record at home (16-6, .727) and their record on the road (11-13, .458). They’ll begin February with two (tough) road games before playing 10 of their next 13 at Crypto.com Arena.

• The Grizzlies have the West’s toughest February schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage, with eight of their 11 games against teams currently over .500. That includes one each against Oklahoma City, Cleveland and New York (but they’ll have a rest advantage when they host the Thunder on Feb. 8).

• The Wolves begin February with their longest homestand yet: five games over eight days. That includes a big visit from the Kings on Monday. Beginning with their last game before the All-Star break, they’ll play four straight against the Thunder (3 games) and Rockets.

• The Pelicans have the league’s toughest February schedule regarding opposing offenses, with seven of their 11 games against teams that currently rank in the top 10 offensively and none against the bottom 10. They’re also the only team playing all of its February games within its conference.

• The Thunder‘s top-ranked defense will have just two February games against teams that currently rank in the top 10 offensively. The first of those is against Sacramento on Saturday when they begin a stretch where they’re playing six of seven at home.

• The Suns have a relatively easy schedule regarding the opponents, but they’re one of two teams with five back-to-backs and have a league-high four rest-disadvantage games in February. They currently have the league’s biggest differential between their record with rest (22-16, .579) and their record in the second games of back-to-backs (2-6, .250).

• The Blazers‘ first eight February games are against teams currently over .500, with two-game series against the Suns (at home) and Nuggets (in Denver) included. Their last four of the month are against teams currently below .500.

• The Kings have a league-high five February games against the NBA’s bottom six teams (teams more than 10 games below .500), with three of the five against the Pelicans. They’re 7-2 against that group thus far, with the last loss (vs. Brooklyn) happening before Thanksgiving.

• The Spurs have the West’s most road-heavy February schedule, and with the rodeo in town, two of their three home games (their first two games after the All-Star break) are in Austin. That’s also the start of their first stretch of five games in seven days.

• The Jazz have the league’s most home-heavy February schedule, with 10 of their 13 games at the Delta Center. But it’s a tough month regarding the opponents and they’ll close the pre-break portion with their only stretch of five games in seven days.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.

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