Darius Acuff Jr. is expected to play over 30 minutes a game right away for the Kings.
Guard is the deepest position in fantasy basketball, but that depth only helps if you know where the value is. LeBron James and Jaylen Brown are now in Philadelphia, LaMelo Ball has left Charlotte and Kawhi Leonard is back in Toronto, so usage rates across the NBA have shifted heading into 2026-27 fantasy drafts. Luka Dončić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander top the guard rankings, but you can find league winners well past an ADP of 100.
Below, we cover the top guard sleepers, breakout candidates and busts to fade. We use Yahoo ADP, injury risk and opportunity to guide your draft strategy in points and category leagues.
Draft Strategy for Guards
Follow the usage
Team quality matters, but a guard’s share of his team’s offense matters more. Usage drives the counting stats fantasy managers care about, and this offseason moved a lot of it around. Luka Dončić, arguably the top fantasy guard with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander close behind, is the clearest example. His usage was already among the league’s highest, and with LeBron James gone, the Lakers offense is fully his. That shift also opens the door for Austin Reaves, one of our breakout picks.
The flip side is Philadelphia. Adding James and Jaylen Brown means fewer shots and touches for players who carried high ADPs before the moves, which is why VJ Edgecombe lands among our fades. The same logic runs through this whole list. When a ball-dominant player leaves, someone inherits his touches (Coby White in Charlotte, Derrick White in Boston). When one arrives, someone loses them. Before you draft a guard, ask who else on the roster needs the ball.
Price in injury risk
The NBA injury report moves fast, and statuses can change right up to tipoff, so always check your lineup before lock. On draft day, though, the bigger question is how often a player shows up on that report at all. Age plays a part, as recent absences from Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard show. Some players, like Ja Morant, have a long track record of missed time. Others, like Trae Young, were dependable until recent injuries clouded their outlook. You can’t predict injuries, but you can stop paying full price for players who regularly miss games. Guard depth helps here too, since replacement-level guards are much easier to find on waivers than replacement-level big men.
Use the depth
Elite guards are scarce, but there are plenty of useful ones beneath them. If you miss on Dončić or SGA, don’t panic. You can find league winners as late as pick 150. In category leagues, use that depth to fill specific needs. Some guards rack up assists or steals, while others, like Detroit’s Ausar Thompson, add rebounds without hurting your other categories. A big name is fun, but a late-round guard who outplays his ADP is often what wins a league.
How we picked the following players: ADP drives the rest of this list. Sleepers are going later in drafts than they should. Fades are going too early. Breakouts are players we expect to far outperform both last season’s production and where they were drafted a year ago.
Sleepers
As I look to sleepers, I remember a fantasy basketball cornerstone that brings candidates into focus. In most cases, opportunity trumps talent. What good is a five-star guy who plays with the third unit? Take that same guy a year later, after his competition is traded away, and you have a potential sleeper or breakout. Or, you move somewhere, possibly a more competitive team where you can start right away (think LaMelo Ball). It’s all about opportunity. Talent means nothing if you don’t use it effectively.
Coby White, Charlotte Hornets
Let’s begin with the other side of the Ball equation. LaMelo’s departure swings the door wide open for White, who embarks on his first full season with the Hornets after inking a three-year, $74M deal in the offseason. Spending that kind of coin indicates that the organization wants White to take over the reins from Ball, and fast. We’ve seen his ability to take over games during his tenure in Chicago, but he now inherits an offense that he’ll share with Brandon Miller, who is an honorable-mention breakout player. Let’s just hope White’s calf strain — which will keep him out of the preseason — isn’t serious.
Ajay Mitchell, Oklahoma City Thunder
I love this pick. Aaron Wiggins? Gone. Isaiah Joe? Gone. Lu Dort? Gone. How can we not consider Mitchell a bona fide sleeper? He blew up with some massive lines down the stretch, and although Jared McCain and Cason Wallace are still around to contribute, I think Mitchell will outpace them if he plays to his potential.
Darius Acuff Jr., Sacramento Kings
In my view, rookies should be exclusively tied to the Sleeper category, and I’m heading toward the No. 7 pick in this year’s draft. Russell Westbrook and DeMar DeRozan are gone, and Zach LaVine is past his prime, but the Kings still have a solid frontcourt in Keegan Murray and Domantas Sabonis. That’s a great anchor for Acuff Jr. to work with. There’s a lot to like about the Arkansas product, and I think he’s in the best opportunity spot out of the top 10 draftees. He’ll play 30-plus minutes right away.
Immanuel Quickley, Toronto Raptors
Quickley’s Yahoo ADP is currently at 96.3, and while injury is a concern, Kawhi Leonard’s return to Toronto is going to help out everyone, and none more than Quickley, whose role will be the least affected by Leonard’s addition. RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes will suffer a bit of regression with Leonard in the lineup, but Quickley’s opportunity for fantasy efficiency will be magnified.
Other sleepers to consider: Ty Jerome, Grizzlies; Egor Dëmin, Nets
Breakouts
Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks
Some would consider Flagg’s rookie season a breakout on its own merits, but I think we’ve only seen the cusp of what he’s capable of. Yahoo gives Flagg guard and forward eligibility, so I have no problem naming him my first breakout mention at the position. One reason for this recommendation is a healthier supporting cast, as we may see Kyrie Irving right away, with Dereck Lively II and rookie Morez Johnson Jr. not too far behind.
Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers
Say what you will about the new-look Lakers — Reaves is poised for a huge season. Fans love him, and he’s going to deliver massive numbers for them this season now that LeBron James is out of the picture. A career-high usage rate should be on the way, in addition to further development.
Derrick White, Boston Celtics
Jaylen Brown is gone, and it makes sense to give White a massive upgrade in this spot. I can understand the desire to also give Payton Pritchard a boost, but White will most likely be the second scoring option behind Tatum, barring some miracle season from Paul George. George’s penchant for absences makes me like White even more, since he’ll often be called on to pick up the slack when George inevitably misses his share of games.
Other breakouts to consider: Dylan Harper, Spurs; Davion Mitchell, Heat
