Jalen Johnson’s usage rate in his past three games is 27% while playing nearly 40 minutes a night.
Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. I am once again back to cover the NBA this year from a DFS perspective, providing strategy and player advice for games every Thursday and Monday. It’s been a solid start to the season, but it can always be better. Let’s keep going strong, shall we?
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. There are only four games today, so we’re a bit limited with our options. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
NBA DFS Core Plays
Tyrese Maxey (PG – PHI)
- DraftKings: $10,300
- FanDuel: $10,100
Well, it’s a little odd to see Tyrese Maxey at the top of the player pricing pool, but here we are. Honestly, I understand it, given the season he’s had. He’s only scored fewer than 45 fantasy points once, and it was a 44-point effort. James Harden is right next to him in terms of pricing and likely projection, but Maxey is simply in a much better situation tonight.
A 228 total isn’t much to write home about, but it’s much better than a 219 total. Of course, Philly is playing in a back-to-back with travel, so monitor any lineup or rotation news. Maxey should get to 50 fantasy points tonight and is a viable option across the board.
Jalen Johnson (PF, SF – ATL)
- DraftKings: $9,800
- FanDuel: $9,800
With the current Atlanta lineup, Jalen Johnson might be my favorite play on today’s slate and is the clear best power forward option, even though there are only four games to choose from. Johnson went nuclear last week, tallying 95 DraftKings points against Utah. While I don’t think that will be repeatable, it shows what he’s capable of accomplishing.
Johnson’s usage rate in his last three games is 27% while playing nearly 40 minutes a night. The Spurs aren’t fully healthy, so their defense will take a step back. Even if it plays well, Johnson’s minutes and usage rate offer a clear floor to go along with his impressive ceiling. He’s hot right now, and I’ll ride that even with his inflated price.
NBA DFS cash game targets
DeMar DeRozan (SF, PF – SAC)
- DraftKings: $7,300
- FanDuel: $6,400
There seems to be a common trend today of players being overpriced on DraftKings and underpriced on FanDuel. If you’ve been thinking about using FanDuel but usually stick to DraftKings, maybe now is the time to jump over. Either way, I expect DeMar DeRozan to be a good choice.
The Kings are playing in a back-to-back, so it will be up in the air a bit for any potential injury or lineup news, but if things go as planned, the Kings forward should play around 34 minutes tonight in a game with one of the highest team totals on the slate. The Grizzlies’ defense has ranked in the bottom third of the league to begin the year, and they play at the seventh-fastest pace. The increased opportunities offer a raised floor, so even if DeRozan has an off night, he can get to his 30-point benchmark.
Devin Vassell (PG, SF, SF – SAS)
- DraftKings: $6,600
- FanDuel: $6,100
I can’t say Devin Vassell is the model of consistency, but with a four-game slate, there is a limit to the options. With Victor Wembanyama out, the Spurs’ lineup usage is going to shake up, and Vassell has the benefit of the double guard-forward eligibility that will increase his rostership but make him cash viable.
Vassell has a floor of 25 points, and I project him closer to 34 fantasy points tonight, which would be a perfect return on investment (ROI) for your cash lineups.
NBA DFS GPP targets
Kyle Kuzma (SF, PF – MIL)
- DraftKings: $6,900
- FanDuel: $5,700
With no Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kyle Kuzma has gotten a noticeable price bump, especially on DraftKings. Kuzma is the quintessential GPP option. Last game, he tallied 22 DraftKings points; before that, he only managed 1.8 DraftKings points across 20 minutes of play, which is impressively bad. Before that, a 60 burger.
You really don’t know what to expect out of the Milwaukee forward. That insecurity has brought down his rostership a bit, and while it’s early in the day to project rostership, I don’t expect it to inflate. Kuzma is an exclusive GPP option with his low floor, but at home against the 76ers, playing in their second straight game, Kuzma is in a solid position for a ceiling game.
Cedric Coward (SF, SG – MEM)
- DraftKings: $6,300
- FanDuel: $5,600
I didn’t think I’d be writing about Cedric Coward this year, but that’s NBA DFS. Bob and weave, bob and weave. Coward has only been playing 26-28 minutes a night, and Memphis’ five-game losing streak isn’t much to really highlight, but tonight would be a night for a ceiling game.
Coward will get additional playing time with how the Grizzlies’ roster is currently constructed and their finally returning home. Coward is coming off a 37 DraftKings point effort and has come close to 40 multiple times. He hasn’t gotten a price bump since then, and he’s especially a solid choice. There are a lot of good value or slot-filling options on Memphis tonight, like Santi Aldama, but I see Coward with the best price-to-ceiling ratio, capable of returning 5X on value.
Russell Westbrook (PG – SAC)
- DraftKings: $7,900
- FanDuel: $7,100
We all rightfully talk about LeBron James‘ accomplishments, but it’s still amazing to see what Russell Westbrook is doing. The Kings may be on a seven-game losing streak, but Westbrook has still been performing well in the last three games, putting up 49, 39 and 35 DraftKings points.
Westbrook is the same price as he was against Oklahoma City and in a much friendlier matchup. We’ll see how rostership and the rotation shake out with the Kings playing consecutive games, but the early projections line up well for Westbrook in GPP lineups.
NBA DFS value plays
Cam Spencer (PG, SG – MEM)
- DraftKings: $4,500
- FanDuel: $4,800
He’s cheap on DraftKings and even cheaper on FanDuel — Mr. Cam Spencer, everybody. If you need a punt spot at guard, here you go. With no Ja Morant in the lineup, Vince Williams Jr. takes over in the starting slot, and he’s not a bad value option as he was a rebound and assist away from a triple-double last time out.
Still, Spencer’s price has ballooned since that performance, and I’m not sure how repeatable that is. While Spencer’s ceiling may not be as high, he is a price-saving option on this four-game slate that is hard to find elsewhere.
Wendell Carter Jr. (C – ORL)
- DraftKings: $5,400
- FanDuel: $5,400
There are a lot of frontcourt pieces out tonight, but the pricing generally is accurate with the updated expected player usages. I could put Luke Kornet here, or Myles Turner, maybe even a Grizzlies option, and I wouldn’t bat an eye.
Still, my top option is Wendell Carter. With no Paolo Banchero, expect Carter to see additional usage. He already sees the court for 30+minutes and has scored at least 36 fantasy points in two straight outings. I project him closer to 30 tonight. The lower team total doesn’t make it the best matchup, but I still trust his floor.
