The Hawks’ Jalen Johnson has eclipsed 48 fantasy points in 12 of his last 13 games.
Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. We are past the All-Star break, with the playoffs on the horizon. The NBA is in full focus right now, with no football or baseball. Hopefully, the league takes center stage with bigger DraftKings and FanDuel contests for casuals to play.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a solid nine-game DFS slate (or seven-game slate on FanDuel) tonight, so you shouldn’t have to go too crazy when differentiating your lineups. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
NBA DFS core plays
Luka Dončić (PG – LAL)
- DraftKings: $11,400
- FanDuel: N/A
Sorry to all my FanDuel readers who are missing out on some solid games with no Lakers-Suns and Pelicans-Jazz on the main slate. That definitely limits you, fantasy-wise, but I can’t pass up on Luka Dončić tonight. While he’s the highest-priced player, he also has the highest ceiling, averaging nearly 60 fantasy points per game this season. He has been surprisingly volatile of late, though, with a high of 75 points but also posting 39 fantasy points while adding in a 59-point effort over his last three games.
Tonight, I expect to see more of a ceiling performance. Phoenix’s defense has dropped from ninth to 16th in its last 15 games. Despite the lower total, Dončić’s 38% usage rate and 37 minutes on the court should be plenty to set your lineups up for success. I prefer him in GPPs, but will sprinkle him in cash game lineups as well.
Jalen Johnson (PF – ATL)
- DraftKings: $10,800
- FanDuel: $11,200
A player in a bit friendlier of a matchup is Jalen Johnson against the Washington Wizards. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season than the Wizards. Their defense ranks third-worst while playing at the sixth-fastest pace of play. Hence, the 236 projected total.
Of course, we’re still waiting on Johnson’s injury status with his hip flexor, but I don’t expect it to be an issue tonight. Outside of his last game, which he left early, the Hawks forward has gone over 48 fantasy points in 12 of his last 13 games. He’s viable as a cash or GPP option, assuming health, and I will likely be overweight on his rostership with his 32% usage rate in recent play.
Zion Williamson (PF – NOP)
- DraftKings: $8,000
- FanDuel: N/A
Is there a better game to deploy Zion Williamson? Washington may be a nice matchup, but Utah still takes the cake. They rank second in pace of play and dead last defensively across the season. Even limiting it to their last 15 games, they rank 21st defensively and still earn the silver medal with pace of play. Over their last 30 games, they’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards.
The Duke product has been consistent of late, going over 34 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. His usage has stayed consistent, and his minutes are creeping up. This should be a battle with points galore. Williamson might be my highest-rostered player tonight.
On FanDuel, I love Donovan Clingan, Naji Marshall and Tyrese Maxey tonight as solid plays.
NBA DFS cash game targets
Matas Buzelis (SF, PF – CHI)
- DraftKings: $6,300
- FanDuel: $6,600
It kind of feels like Matas Buzelis lives in cash lane as he almost always projects well with his current pricing. He’s gone over 30 fantasy points, his seasonal average, in nine of his last 12 games, and we can project him for around 33-35 tonight.
With a few injuries, we should see his 24% usage rate and 30 minutes a night get a small bump, and the game total of 235 is promising. Portland’s defense in their last 15 games ranks 22nd, and they are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points across the board in that same time frame. I struggle seeing GPP-winning upside here for the Bulls forward, but I am comfortable throwing him in my cash lineups.
Jrue Holiday (PG – POR)
- DraftKings: $6,600
- FanDuel: $6,900
On the other side of the coin, we have Jrue Holiday. I mentioned Portland’s fantasy points allowed in their last 15, but no team has allowed more fantasy points over that same time frame than the Chicago Bulls. Pick your options from Portland tonight; odds are that they are at least above-average plays.
Holiday’s 30 minutes a game offer him a solid floor, and with the pace-up spot, there will be plenty of opportunity to get to his projected 37 fantasy points. He’s gone over 30 points in seven of his last nine efforts, and I would be shocked if he doesn’t do so again against the Bulls’ sixth-worst-ranked league defense tonight. I mentioned Donovan Clingan as a FanDuel option earlier, but he slots in as a solid cash option on DraftKings as well.
Brandon Williams (PG, SG – DAL)
- DraftKings: $5,200
- FanDuel: $5,900
With Dallas missing three projected starters tonight, it’s easy to be dissuaded by their potential. Yet, the Mavericks still sit as 8-point favorites against the Kings. To say Sacramento has thrown in the towel feels like a bit of an understatement. The Mavericks guard should start tonight and will likely see around 30 minutes of play.
Three of Williams’ last four games have seen him score over 30 fantasy points, and there’s no reason to say he can’t do it again tonight. Williams won’t be crazy high rostered, so he’s a fine fit for GPPs, but with the bump he gets at home and the matchup at hand, his floor is quite high for his price tag.
NBA DFS GPP targets
Victor Wembanyama (C, PF – SAS)
- DraftKings: $10,900
- FanDuel: $12,000
As Victor Wembanyama continues coming in below 5% rostership, I will stay slotting him in as a GPP play. It’s a terrible matchup at Brooklyn, but that’s exactly why the Spurs big man is getting breadcrumbs here. Despite their slow pace of play — bottom-four in the league —it’s not like the Nets are a scary defensive unit. Brooklyn’s defense ranks fifth-worst in the NBA and sixth-worst over its last 15 games.
Wembanyama is supremely efficient with 1.56 fantasy points per minute, but there’s a chance he shoots 70% from the field and doesn’t need a whole lot of playing time to get a must-have GPP score. Now there are a lot of “ifs” I’m tossing around, but with his remarkably low rostership, I imagine I’ll be overweight tonight on the Spurs centerpiece. He’s gone over 60 fantasy points in two of his last three games, so don’t be shocked if that happens again tonight.
Paolo Banchero (PF, SF – ORL)
- DraftKings: $9,200
- FanDuel: $9,300
Another person who doesn’t project great, and thus the low rostership, is Paolo Banchero. Coming in at a whopping 3% projected rostership, it’s hard to find a bigger leverage play than the Orlando forward. Yes, Houston’s defense is solid, but they are playing in the second leg of a back-to-back while having to travel, which doesn’t exactly help them.
Banchero has been balling of late, going over 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four games with a 58-point outing and a 62-point outing in there against some tougher opponents. He has the chops to get over 50 again tonight. With his price tag where it is, that would put you ahead of the field in a nice way.
LaMelo Ball (PG – CHA)
- DraftKings: $8,900
- FanDuel: $8,500
I love LaMelo Ball tonight, but he is expensive. After being mid $7,000 at points in the season, we have now peaked at $8,900 for the Charlotte guard, but I’m not sure if that will be his price ceiling. He’s shown his ability for 60+ point efforts, and the Hornets are 13-point favorites tonight against the Pacers. That’s insane.
Ball’s usage is a healthy 30%, so he will get plenty of looks, and the Pacers have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards in their last 30 games. Ball is a super-deep GPP play tonight, along with Brandon Miller, but I still see him as a positive leverage option if you want to get weird.
NBA DFS value plays
Marvin Bagley III (C – DAL)
- DraftKings: $4,900
- FanDuel: $5,400
For your clear value spot of the night here, we have Marvin Bagley III taking over down low for the Mavericks. It’ll be just the second time he’s started this month, and with no P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, Cooper Flagg or Khris Middleton, Bagley will get a ton of run. He’s sub-$5,000 on DraftKings but will likely score over 30 fantasy points tonight.
It also helps that the wheels have fallen off Sacramento’s wagon, where they’ve allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing centers in the last 30 games. Bagley will be highly rostered, so I prefer him in cash, but he can absolutely be sprinkled around different contests.
For another punt play at center, you have Nick Richards, who should start tonight for the Bulls. For another Dallas value play, Caleb Martin projects well.
Jordan Poole (PG, SG – NOP)
- DraftKings: $4,100
- FanDuel: N/A
Again, sorry for covering the Pelicans-Jazz game, but this game’s total is over 240 points. That’s insanity. There will not be defense played in this game. Someone is going to go for seven times their salary, and it’s a bit of a dart throw, but I’m going to throw darts at Jordan Poole.
Coming off the bench, he has a lower floor and a bit more volatile outcome, so I prefer him in GPP contests. Utah is one of the friendliest matchups you can ask for, and Poole racked up nearly 40 fantasy points two games ago. That’s the kind of output we are looking for, and the output is reasonable against this Jazz team.
Collin Sexton (SG, SF, PG – CHI)
- DraftKings: $4,700
- FanDuel: $4,700
For another risky value option, we have Collin Sexton. The Bulls guard/forward helps on DraftKings with his dual eligibility that might make rosters more flexible, but I don’t expect his rostership to get too high today. It’s impressive how many times he’s gotten to exactly 29.5 fantasy points, but we’re looking for him to go over 30 fantasy points tonight, and that’s within range here.
When he’s on the court, Sexton sees a 25% usage rate, and he will likely see additional run with no Patrick Williams and Jaden Ivey still sidelined. Again, consistency is not how I would describe Sexton, but he’s a way to get a little different while still offering value.
