The Mavericks’ Anthony Davis has a juicy matchup against the Pelicans who rank 28th in defensive metrics.
Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. It’s been a good start to the season as we are well into the NBA season and past the NBA Cup. The holidays are among us, which is when the season really takes off, in my humble opinion. There’s nothing better.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. There are seven games tonight with a lot of different avenues for late swapping. Basically, if you’re committing money to something, you have to stay on top of lineup announcements to get every edge possible. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
NBA DFS core plays
Nikola Jokić (C – DEN)
- DraftKings: $12,500
- FanDuel: $12,700
I don’t know if I’ve ever been more in on a player than Nikola Jokić tonight against the Utah Jazz. Utah sits at 10-17 on the season with the 29th-ranked defense. Their pace of play is the fourth-fastest, and they’ve allowed the second-most DFS points in the league.
The altitude shift won’t be as impactful for Utah playing in Denver, but the Nuggets obviously get the biggest bump playing at home. With seven games on the slate, there should be plenty of dominoes falling to get some solid value to pay up for Jokić. I would try to do everything possible, especially after an off night against Houston, to buy in on Jokić.
Paolo Banchero (PF, SF – ORL)
- DraftKings: $8,700
- FanDuel: $10,200
This obviously is a bigger lean for a DraftKings play because I’m not sure if I’ve seen a bigger price discrepancy than Banchero’s $1,500 difference on DraftKings vs. FanDuel. But that mostly goes to show just how well he’s been playing recently, going off for 66 DraftKings points when I wrote him up for the Thursday slate last week against Denver and followed that up with a 51-point performance on Saturday.
It feels like we’re finally seeing Banchero find his footing again after coming back from his injury. His usage rate has jumped to 29% in his last four games, with 37 minutes a game compared to his 32-minute seasonal average. Golden State’s defense has been solid, but it’s taken a step back in its last 10 games. They rank middle of the pack against opposing power forwards. Additionally, with no Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner or Tristan da Silva, the usage and minutes will continue rising. I’d prefer him more in cash games on DraftKings and in GPPs on FanDuel based on early rostership projections.
Keyonte George (PG, SG – UTA)
- DraftKings: $8,200
- FanDuel: $8,900
On the surface, it may not seem like the most dependent play for a sub-$9,000 point guard on the 10-17 Utah Jazz, but that’s what we’ve come to. Keyonte George has been awesome of late, returning 50+ point outings in four straight games. This game’s total is near 250 points, and Utah’s offense has been a top-10 unit over the last month of play.
Denver’s defense ranks 17th, with its pace quickening when playing at home. Utah is more trustworthy with the altitude less impactful, and there’s going to be an insane amount of possessions in this game, favoring the offense in the second half. I love George in GPPs because he can get to his 50-point clip without costing you too much.
NBA DFS cash game targets
Anthony Davis (PF, C – DAL)
- DraftKings: $9,200
- FanDuel: $10,500
It’s not like Anthony Davis exactly screams consistency, but when he plays, Davis puts up points (assuming he stays healthy the whole game). I know that might sound like an asterisk, but all things considered, he seems fully healthy based on recent play. It also helps that Dallas is playing one of the worst teams in the NBA.
The New Orleans Pelicans are 28th in defensive metrics, with a top-10 pace of play, and those numbers look more promising in their last 10 games. When Davis plays, he sees over a 27% usage rate with about 34 minutes of playing time. That should project him for well over 5X return on investment, as I expect Davis to clear 50 fantasy points tonight.
Jaylen Brown (SF, SG – BOS)
- DraftKings: $9,500
- FanDuel: $9,900
I will lead with the fact that Jaylen Brown is questionable for tonight, so I once again implore you to follow up on injury news throughout the day. Assuming Brown starts, he’s an underrated play with a high floor. In his last 13 games, Brown has scored fewer than 40 fantasy points twice, with those performances resulting in 37 and 39 DraftKings points. Not bad.
Indiana has struggled all year with their 6-22 record and pace-up spot for Boston. Of course, everyone is a pace-up spot, but the Pacers rank in the top half in pace of play in the league. The Celtics are 11-point favorites, so there is a very real chance Brown sits for load/injury management. If that is the case, you can easily pivot to Derrick White or Payton Pritchard.
Darius Garland (PG – CLE)
- DraftKings: $7,700
- FanDuel: $7,500
From a pure game theory/macro level, I’m not expecting to roster much from the Cleveland-Charlotte game. With the number of late slate opportunities and the amount of questionable tags already across the board, I expect a lot of news to break late, which will open up a lot of value for late swapping. And it’s not exactly like this game is jumping off the page. With that said, I do like Darius Garland tonight for his price as a value option.
Garland has averaged 34 minutes a night in his last four games and is completely off the injury report, while backcourt teammate Donovan Mitchell has been dealing with an illness, missing the last game. I don’t expect Mitchell to miss tonight, but any step back only helps Garland more. Of course, Charlotte’s defense isn’t all that scary, and the total is high. I feel like a lot will open up later in the night to avoid going all in on this game.
NBA DFS GPP targets
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC)
- DraftKings: $10,700
- FanDuel: $10,800
I’m not sure if there’s ever been a better GPP spot for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander than tonight’s bout against Memphis. The Thunder are 16-point favorites at home. Both teams rank in the top half of pace of play. Memphis is dealing with a handful of injuries that will hurt their already average defense. Oklahoma City is managing its own injury issues, too.
Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams are already out. Chet Holmgren, Aaron Wiggins and Alex Caruso are questionable. These are mostly frontcourt players where value might aggressively open up for Jalen Williams or Kenrich Williams. However, Gilgeous-Alexander will only see his 35% usage rate rise tonight. His rostership isn’t high, and it will offer some late swap options if injuries break one way or another.
Kon Knueppel (SF, SG – CHA)
- DraftKings: $7,000
- FanDuel: $7,900
I mentioned my lack of desire to roster players from Charlotte-Cleveland, but it gets to a point where the leverage options are simply too high because it seems like everyone else feels the same way about the rookie, with just a 3% projected rostership.
That is insanely low considering Knuppel has gone over 50 fantasy points twice in his last four games. This is purely a dart-throw type play, but without his price increasing on DraftKings, he makes for a clear deep-field GPP play. His minutes and usage only continue increasing, and Cleveland is a team where a player like Knueppel is capable of having a ceiling performance.
Jalen Duren (C – DET)
- DraftKings: $7,500
- FanDuel: $7,300
Considering Nikola Jokić will be owned by about half the field tonight based on early projections, any center on tonight’s slate looks like a good GPP option. With Jalen Duren having a questionable tag next to his name on DraftKings and with Detroit-Portland finishing out the slate, his 6-7% rostership looks like the best leverage spot on the slate for any center.
Duren is probable to play, and the late game offers late swap options. He plays 30 minutes a night with a 30% usage rate against the third-fastest team in the Portland Trail Blazers. There will be opportunities to score against this 21st-ranked defense that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing centers. The opportunity cost is insanely high if you decide not to roster Jokić, but if the Denver big man doesn’t get there tonight, you’re ahead of a lot of the field.
NBA DFS value plays
Isaiah Collier (PG – UTA)
- DraftKings: $4,200
- FanDuel: $5,900
Once again, the price discrepancy between DraftKings and FanDuel shows Isaiah Collier’s value on DraftKings tonight. Some injury news is in the air still for Utah, most around Lauri Markkanen, but there will be a lot of value on the slate with such a high total.
To go with the 250-point total, Collier has averaged 27 minutes a night in recent weeks and is projected to be the best value on the slate. If you’re looking for other options in this game, you can consider Jusuf Nurkić, Cam Johnson or Kyle Filipowski.
Brandon Williams (PG – DAL)
- DraftKings: $4,000
- FanDuel: $5,100
I hyped up Brandon Williams last time out, and he ended up not paying off, as he missed the game against Utah. Here we are again. Williams may not start, but he plays 26 minutes a night and he’s going up against a terrible defense in the New Orleans Pelicans.
If Dallas gets out to a big lead, Williams could see even more run. This game has a 241-point total, and Cooper Flagg might be out, opening up additional opportunity for Williams.
