Dereck Lively II has scored at least 28 fantasy points in four of his last five games.
After a wild Wednesday, we’re nearing the end of the week. We usually have a tiny Thursday slate, but we have a decent amount of games after the tourney last week. We have seven games making up Thursday’s docket, and that’s the perfect number for DFS! We have plenty to discuss, so let’s start with the schedule and odds!
Core Plays
Kawhi Leonard (PG/SG – LAC): $8,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
It took some time for Kawhi to figure out how to play with James Harden, but it looks like The Claw has a grasp now. Leonard has scored at least 56 DraftKings points in two of his last three outings, getting his season average up to 41 DK points per game. That’s the stud we’ve become accustomed to, and he should be asked to do more with Paul George likely missing this game. We also saw him score 42 fantasy points in his last matchup with Golden State, and they don’t have anyone who can cover Kawhi with Green out.
Anfernee Simons (PG/SG – POR): $7,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Simons missed most of the season with a hand issue, but he’s been unstoppable since his return. The sharpshooter has scored at least 38 DraftKings points in all three games since his recovery, scoring 47 and 49 DK points in his two most recent outings. He’s clearly the showman with Damian Lillard out of town and should be locked into 35 minutes and 20 shots as we advance. Not to mention, Utah allows the most fantasy points to opposing guards.
Rudy Gobert (C – MIN): $7,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Gobert has taken down Defensive Player of the Year numerous times and might get it again. The big man is averaging 37 DraftKings points per game this season, scoring at least 28 DK points in 18 of 22 games. That’s the floor and average we’re looking for, and he should have success against a 23rd-ranked Dallas defense. That was clear when Gobert gobbled up 40 and 48 fantasy points in their two matchups last season.
Cash Game Considerations
Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $12,000 DraftKings, $12,400 FanDuel
The Joker is the best player in fantasy. Despite getting ejected in his most recent outing, the former MVP leads the league with 63 DraftKings points per game. He’s also eclipsed 70 DK points nearly 10 times over the last month and is well on his way to another MVP. Don’t be surprised to see him bludgeon Brooklyn, too, because they got killed by Jusuf Nurkic last night.
Luka Doncic (PG – DAL): $11,900 DraftKings, $12,600 FanDuel
Luka has been ridiculous this season, ranked third in the NBA with 61 DraftKings points per game. He’s also got at least 59 DK points in six straight outings and should have a 50-point floor as long as Irving remains out. We also saw him drop nearly 100 fantasy points just last week, and those sorts of upside games aren’t out of the question since he’s looking at a 40 percent usage rate in this expanded role.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG/SG – OKC): $10,500 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
SGA would be an MVP frontrunner any other year, but there’s no way he can eclipse Jokic, Doncic, and Embiid for that award. He’s likely fourth in line, though, averaging 54 DraftKings points per game. Gilgeous-Alexander has also scored at least 39 DK points in all but one game this year and should have success against a 24th-ranked Sacramento defense. He’s also got at least 54 fantasy points in three straight matchups with the Kings.
GPP Targets
Josh Giddey (PG/SF – OKC): $6,000 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Giddey can stuff the stat sheet with anyone, falling shy of a triple-double in his most recent outing. He scored 42 DK points in that gem and has his season average just below 30 fantasy points per game. We love that against Sacramento, surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wings.
Jonathan Kuminga (SF/PF – GSW): $5,400 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
It’s about time Golden State gives Kuminga more run, and they’ll have to with Green out for the foreseeable future. Kuminga has scored 26 and 40 DK points in his two most recent outings and is averaging over 25 DK points per game whenever Green has been out. It’s all about the playing time and usage, but Kuminga should be guaranteed 25-30 minutes and double-digit shots with Green out once again.
Grant Williams (SF/PF – DAL): $5,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Williams will get opportunities for this shorthanded Dallas team. We saw that on Tuesday, with Williams scoring 28 DK points across 40 minutes of action. It’s impossible to overlook a $5K player who could play 40 minutes, and that seems like a guarantee with Irving missing this game.
Value Plays
Chris Paul (PG – GSW): $6,800 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
CP3 has been up and down all season, but he’s always been good whenever Green has been out. That makes him the primary ball-handler and distributor in this offense, averaging 35 DK points per game whenever DG has been sidelined. That alone is amazing from a sub-$7K player, especially since we saw this point guard sit closer to $8,000 for most of his career. You know he’ll also be motivated against his former team, averaging 47 DK points per game against them in their last five matchups.
Ivica Zubac (C – DAL): $6,400 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
I thought Zubac would be limited in this offense once they added James Harden, but it’s actually made him better. That’s what Harden has done throughout his career, getting easy buckets for every center he plays with. That’s led to Zoo posting a 34-point average across his last nine outings. That’s scary for a Golden State team that loves to play small, owning a 24th OPRK against opposing big men.
Dereck Lively (C – DAL): $6,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
This rookie looks like a stud in the making. He’s been inconsistent like most rookies, but the upside is hard to overlook. Lively has scored at least 28 fantasy points in four of his last five games, showcasing 41 and 56-point gems in that span. They need him to keep doing that because they have no other big bodies matching up with Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. That should lock Lively into 30-35 minutes, making him an immense value despite the challenging matchup.
Advantageous Pricing
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG/SG – OKC): $10,500 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
- Rudy Gobert (C – MIN): $7,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker (PG/SG – MIN): $5,700 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
- Spencer Dinwiddie (PG/SG – BKN): $7,600 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
- Michael Porter Jr.(SF/{PF – DEN): $7,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
- Malcolm Brogdon (PG/SG – POR): $8,300 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
