The health of Peyton Watson and Aaron Gordon will go a long way in determining Denver’s postseason chances.
As if enough assorted injuries weren’t conspiring to spoil what was expected to be a stellar season for the Denver Nuggets, along comes another ailment to the list.
Yes, the Nuggets collectively suffer from a form of whiplash caused by seeing a handful of teams quickly pass them by in the Western Conference.
With roughly a month remaining in the regular season, right when the Nuggets hoped to press the Oklahoma City Thunder for the top seed in the conference, there’s a chance Denver could slip even further and into the SoFi Play-In Tournament. That’s a scenario that wasn’t on the radar when the season began.
The fragility of this team is heightened here in a week where the Nuggets face the Thunder, Rockets on Wednesday (10 p.m. ET, ESPN), Spurs on Thursday (9 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass) and Lakers on Saturday (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC), all teams in the thick of the race. They lost Monday to OKC, for the second time in two weeks.
Anything less than a break-even result this week could prove costly to Denver, because the conference is deep and unforgiving — and time is ticking.
This doesn’t mean, however, that Denver is done.
Far from it, actually. The Nuggets do have a pair of aces that could erase most, if not all, of their current issues.
One is health. At some point, it will finally improve and give the Nuggets a solid and proven eight-deep rotation that demands respect.
The other? Nikola Jokić. Any team with the game’s perceived best player has an edge over most, if not everyone, in a seven-game series.
As they await the return of the final missing piece, Peyton Watson (he’s healing from a hamstring injury), the Nuggets are hoping to discover their true identity — even at this late hour. Remember: Denver re-tooled last summer by adding new pieces and aiding its depth.
The general feeling within the organization is that this roster is an upgrade over 2024-25, when the Nuggets took eventual-champion OKC to Game 7 in the Western Conference semifinals. Even then, injuries impacted that outcome as Aaron Gordon played on one leg and the since-departed Michael Porter Jr. dealt with a bum shoulder.
What keeps the Nuggets confident is the memory of the first few weeks of this season, the first 10 games to be exact, the last time their injury list was clean.
“When the group was whole,” said coach David Adelman, “we were 8-2 with a top-five defense and top-five offense. We lost two fourth-quarter leads. We could’ve easily been 10-0 to start the season.
“But since then, it has been different, just different lineups every week, every day. If we can get enough games under our belt and lucky enough to get in (the playoffs), we’ll be an issue. We’ll be a problem.”
Lucky enough?
In the recent past, the Nuggets were always more than good enough. But that was then and this is now.
It has been a freaky year in so many ways. They lost Jokić, who rarely gets hurt, for nearly a month with a hyperextended knee. In that time, the Nuggets played their most inspired basketball of the season. Then, when he returned, the team strangely looked flat and mistake-prone. It was unexplainable.
They’re just 16-16 in 2026, an alarmingly average record for a team still holding championship aspirations, and just 7-8 at home during that stretch.
So, what’s next?
Here are the key figures who’ll largely determine the Nuggets’ fate, one way or another:
Coach David Adelman
This is the first big test for Adelman, who’s in his first full season as coach. He took over for Michael Malone right before the 2025 playoffs and did a credible job, bringing a fresh voice and new ideas.
Now the Nuggets are at perhaps their most critical state since winning the 2023 title. In these situations, young coaches will take risks or stay in their comfort zone. He’ll need to improve the defense, especially along the perimeter. Also, once he gets a full roster, Adelman will make tough decisions regarding minutes, and certain players might not agree with his choices.
“With this group, we talked about how we got a lot of depth and if you’re OK with taking a role,” he said. “It’s easy to say yes, everybody says `of course.’ But human instinct says you want more. In this group, this year has been really special. They’ve taken on what I’ve asked.”
Cam Johnson
Cameron Johnson’s scoring production has dipped in his first season with the Nuggets.
It’s not uncommon for a new player to need time to adjust to new teammates, coaching and a new system. But four months? Johnson still seems unsure, timid at times and is largely lacking in offensive impact.
This comes as a mild surprise for a player who thrived in Brooklyn (18.8 points per game on 47.5% shooting last season) and plays next to an unselfish center whose passing constantly gives teammates open looks at the rim.
But Johnson is averaging 8.4 ppg in Denver, mainly because he’s an afterthought at times. And his confidence seems to wane. In four of his last six games, he shot a combined 2-for-15, which means the situation isn’t getting better here in March.
Asked about how he deals with players who clearly are struggling, Adelman said: “There’s guys who you just leave alone. You’ve got to know your players. That’s why relationships are key in this league. Everybody’s under a microscope and everybody deals with it differently. You have to pay attention to people’s personality traits to help them through tough times. We’ve all been through ups and downs in our careers.”
Peyton Watson
On the flip side, there’s Watson, having a step-up season, at least before his injury. There were stretches where he was a lead option during Jokić’s absence, routinely dropping 20 points and replacing the outside shooting the Nuggets lost when they exchanged Porter for Johnson.
He averaged 21.9 ppg on 49% shooting (46.2% on 3-pointers) in January, quite a leap for a player who shot only six times a game last season and was a far lesser option. Even better, Watson has the respect of his teammates, who look for him and trust him. When he returns, which could be Wednesday against the Rockets, he could replace Johnson as a starter. His production will weigh heavily on the Nuggets’ chances of a season turnaround.
Aaron Gordon
He’s the soul of the club, a tough veteran whose value as a defender is steep, who can make 3-pointers and bring energy. The Nuggets struggle without him and his intangibles, and Gordon has only played 25 games.
His hamstring issues date back to last season, and if they persist and endanger his playing time, the Nuggets are in trouble. Gordon’s production is difficult for any of his teammates to match.
Nikola Jokić
But of course. Once again, he’s at an MVP-level and could become the first player to lead the league in rebounds and assists in the same season. There isn’t a defender in the league capable of shutting him down. He does too much to impact games at that end of the floor — passing, scoring at the rim, rebounding.
He’s not without flaws, though. His 3-point shooting is streaky, and his turnovers are rising. And he often has tough nights defensively. Even with those issues, the Nuggets bring one player who strikes fear into the other bench.
Close outs
The Nuggets are coming up small when it counts. Missed free throws, defensive lapses and poor execution are dooming this team in fourth-quarter moments of truth. Since January 1, the Nuggets have lost six games by five points or less in regulation, along with a pair of overtime games.
“It’s just difficult,” said Jamal Murray, who’s having an All-NBA season. “I feel like for 10 years we’ve been so good (and) this is probably our worst year so far just being consistently being clutch. And now we don’t got it no more? We just got to prove (people) wrong.”
And now the Nuggets will try to navigate two forces: getting healthier and developing chemistry before the season’s end.
“There’s going to be some growing pains,” Adelman said. “Patience is the key. We had (a full rotation) for 10 games to start the season which went really well. Just get them back into the fold, get the flow back in. And for me, it gives me a chance to see what my rotation really is. I haven’t known for four months. We’ve been going with who’s healthy that night.
“When you go into the playoffs or play-in (tournament), you want to be going up. You want to feel you’ve hit your mark. So we do need time. When I give guys opportunities that means other guys don’t get those opportunities, so you need time to see that fit. I have a lot of confidence in the group. We need time to get a rhythm. I said 20 games the other day, but I’ll take 15.”
Denver is resting its season on that, on being healthy and fulfilling all the lofty preseason projections and putting two players having superb seasons — Jokić and Murray — in position to cause problems in the playoffs
Except there are so many conflicting signals right now that need to be resolved one way or another. This is a team that either nobody wants to see in springtime … or one that everyone wants to see.
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Shaun Powell has covered the NBA since 1985. You can e-mail him at spowell@nba.com, find his archive here and follow him on X.
