Led by a playoff-career high 26 points from Josh Hart, the Knicks defeat the Cavaliers in Game 2 to take a 2-0 series lead.
CLEVELAND — The Cleveland Cavaliers have been here before, down 2-0 and coming home for Games 3 and 4.
But that was against a team – the Detroit Pistons – with much less experience and much less momentum than the New York Knicks, who’ve won nine straight games through the first two of the Eastern Conference Finals. Over their 12 playoff games, the Knicks have outscored their opponents by 18.4 points per game, which would be the best differential in NBA playoff history.
The Cavs have to hope that the series wasn’t lost when they blew a 22-point, fourth-quarter lead in Game 1. And they have to hope that both teams’ shooting in this series will regress (or improve) to the mean … before it’s too late.
Here are three things to watch for in Game 3 on Saturday (8 ET, ABC):
1. The Cavs need to make shots
According to tracking data, the Cavs have taken higher quality shots in the conference finals than they did through the first two rounds. But while they shot a little bit better than expected against Toronto and Detroit, they’ve shot much worse than expected against the Knicks.
Cavs’ shooting by round
| Round | xeFG% | eFG% | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| First round | 53.8% | 54.7% | +0.9% |
| Conf. semis | 52.7% | 53.7% | +1.0% |
| Conf. finals | 53.9% | 46.8% | -7.1% |
xeFG% = Expected effective field goal percentage
eFG% = Actual effective field goal percentage = (FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA
The Cavs’ struggles have mostly come from beyond the arc. Based on the quality of their attempts, James Harden, Sam Merrill, Dennis Schröder, Max Strus and Jaylon Tyson should be a combined 18-for-48 (38%) from 3-point range. Instead, they’re 11-for-48 (23%), having missed some great looks:
Most of those great looks have come on the weak side of the floor, because that’s what’s usually left unguarded with the Knicks’ paint-protecting scheme. But the Cavs have also got a couple of good looks for Merrill out of “Spain” pick-and-roll, where a shooter sets a back-screen on the guy defending the initial screener and then pops out to the top of the key:
If this were a best-of-15 series, the Cavs could certainly expect their shooting to come around in time. But it’s best-of-7, and if they don’t start connecting on more open shots in Game 3, they’ll be in a deficit that no team in NBA history has ever recovered from.
2. Mobley needs to play big
Evan Mobley had a promising first half in Game 2. He made two 3-pointers in the Cavs’ first four possessions, but he didn’t just keep launching 3s. He settled for one mid-range jumper with plenty of time left on the clock, but also bullied Mikal Bridges for a layup and beat Mitchell Robinson off the dribble for a dunk:
But after scoring 14 points in the first half on Thursday, Mobley didn’t attempt a single shot in the second half, also missing both of his second-half free throw attempts.
The Cavs obviously need more from Mobley than that, and it would be preferable if more of his shots came inside. He’s taken just 10 (42%) of his 24 shots in the paint in this series, down from 65% through the first two rounds and 70% in the regular season.
The Knicks have slowed down the Cavs’ interior scoring by collapsing in the paint when they drive or roll toward the basket. But the Cavs could be a little more patient and have their bigs roll into post position against the Knicks’ smaller help defenders. There was a possession like that in Game 1, where Mobley was able to score in the post against Jordan Clarkson:
Mobley will continue to get some open looks from 3-point range, but it’s important that he play big. He’s averaged 14.3 points in the paint or at the free throw line in the Cavs’ eight playoff wins and just 9.9 in their eight losses.
3. Zoning up vs. Brunson
After Jalen Brunson torched them in the fourth quarter and overtime of Game 1, the Cavs were more aggressive in taking the ball out of his hands in Game 2.
It didn’t work, and the Knicks scored much more efficiently on Thursday (109 points on just 89 possessions) than they did on Tuesday (115 on 109). The ball moved a lot more, Brunson had a career-playoff-high 14 assists, and the Knicks’ other four starters totaled 77 points on an effective field goal percentage of 68.9%.
Now, while the Cavs have shot much worse than expected in this series, the Knicks have shot much better than expected over the entire postseason. Among 68 qualified players through Thursday, Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns and Brunson all ranked in the top nine in how much they’ve outshot their expected field goal percentage in the playoffs. No other team has more than two players in the top 23.
Given the Knicks’ improved efficiency in Game 2, the Cavs could back to playing Brunson 1-on-1. They could hope that the other guys come back to earth a bit and continue with their “soft” double teams of Brunson, which allow him to see the floor and make easy passes:
Or they could be more aggressive with those double-teams, so passing out of them becomes more difficult. That could lead to more fouls and/or longer recovery distances.
There are no easy answers, but the Cavs need one.
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John Schuhmann has covered the NBA for more than 20 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Bluesky.
