LeBron James may have to shoulder much of the offensive load for the short-handed Lakers against Kevin Durant and Houston.
The Los Angeles Lakers were playing their best basketball late in the season. From Feb. 28 through March 31, the Lakers went 16-2, with the league’s fourth-ranked offense and a much-improved offense.
But in their first game of April, a 43-point loss in Oklahoma City, the Lakers lost both Luka Dončić (hamstring strain) and Austin Reaves (oblique strain) to injuries. They each missed the last five games of the regular season, and their status for the first round is unknown.
The Houston Rockets could take advantage. They didn’t see much improvement with the addition of Kevin Durant this season, but they won eight straight games down the stretch of the season to secure the 5 seed. They have a top-five defense for the second straight year, and (if Dončić is unavailable) the best offensive player in the series.
The Lakers won two of the three regular-season meetings, with Dončić totaling 76 points in their two March wins in Houston.
Series schedule
Here’s how to watch the Lakers vs. Rockets series:
All times Eastern Standard Time
- Game 1: Rockets at Lakers | Saturday April 18 (8:30 ET, ABC)
- Game 2: Rockets at Lakers (TBD)
- Game 3: Lakers at Rockets (TBD)
- Game 4: Lakers at Rockets (TBD)
- Game 5: Rockets at Lakers (TBD)*
- Game 6: Lakers at Rockets (TBD)*
- Game 7: Rockets at Lakers (TBD)*
* = If necessary
Regular-season results
Dec. 25: Rockets 119, Lakers 96
Mar. 16: Lakers 100, Rockets 92
Mar. 18: Lakers 124, Rockets 116
Top storyline
The health of Dončić and Reaves. The Lakers obviously aren’t the same team without their two leading scorers. LeBron James has led a lot of teams to postseason success, but most of those teams were better defensively than this one, and it’s been three years since he last won a playoff series.
James played just five games with neither Dončić nor Reaves, but he averaged 25.5 points (on 56% shooting) in less than 30 minutes over his four games in the last eight days of the season, one of which was a 28-point win over Phoenix. The Lakers have also outscored their opponents by 11 points per 100 possessions in James’ 528 total minutes on the floor without the other two.
Still, moving Luke Kennard and Rui Hachimura into the starting lineup damages the Lakers’ depth. And of the two teams, the Rockets have had the higher-ranked bench.
Keep your eyes on
Late-clock execution. The Rockets ranked 29th in pace, in part because they led the league in offensive rebounding percentage, but also because they were one of the slowest teams to get the ball across midcourt.
They took 24% of their shots, the league’s second highest rate, in the last six seconds of the shot clock. The Rockets had three of the top 10 guys in regard to total field goal attempts in the last four seconds.
Pace almost always slows down in the playoffs, so that rate could rise. The Rockets have one of the best late-clock operators in NBA history, but they were in the middle of the pack in regard to effective field goal percentage in the last six seconds of the clock (46.9%). Their late-clock execution and shot-making should continue to be critical over the next two weeks.
One more thing to watch for each team
For L.A.: Rui Hachimura saw his role reduced in the second half of the season, moving to the bench to make way for the return of Reaves from an extended absence. But the seventh-year forward was back in the starting lineup for the last five games, and he’s had another efficient scoring season. He shot 54.5% on pull-up 2-pointers, the second best mark among 96 players who attempted at least 100.
Hachimura will need to score to keep the Lakers’ offense afloat. He should also get some time guarding Durant on the other end of the floor, and his (and others’) rebounding will be under the microscope against the league’s best team on the offensive glass.
For Houston: Reed Sheppard needs to play, because he gives the Rockets some much-needed perimeter shooting, but the Lakers could target him on the other end of the floor. He was among the league leaders in deflections per 36 minutes, but can be bullied if he gets switched into the wrong matchup.
The Rockets were outscored by 29 points (21.9 per 100 possessions) in Sheppard’s 78 minutes on the floor against the Lakers this season. Sheppard shot just 5-for-18 (28%) from 3-point range over the three games, and the Rockets’ numbers were bad on both ends of the floor in those 78 minutes. If those numbers aren’t better in this series, the Rockets won’t be playing another one.
One key number to know
15.7 – The Rockets committed 15.7 turnovers per 100 possessions in the regular season. That was the league’s fourth highest rate and up from 14.0 (11th lowest) last season.
Houston’s ability (or inability) to take care of the ball in this series could be extra critical. If Dončić and Reaves are either limited or unavailable, L.A.’s best chance at generating good shots will be in transition. The Lakers led the league in field goal percentage in the paint (63.0%) by a wide margin and Houston will have an easier time of keeping them out of the paint if its defense is set.
The Lakers were in the middle of the pack in steals per 100 possessions, but they may want to apply extra pressure given the Rockets’ lack of a point guard.
The pick
ROCKETS in 5. The Rockets would be a legit pick to win this series if the Lakers were healthy. Statistically, Houston has been the much better team, outscoring opponents by 5.4 points per 100 possessions, the league’s sixth best mark and more than three times better than the Lakers’ differential (plus-1.5 per 100). It’s a very similar situation as last year, when the Lakers were the 3 seed and lost to the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves, who had the much better point differential in the regular season (plus-5.0 vs. plus-1.2 per 100 possessions).
With the status of Dončić and Reaves in doubt, it becomes a much easier pick. Houston has multiple defenders to keep James somewhat in check, but the Lakers could struggle to stop both Durant and Sengun.
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John Schuhmann has covered the NBA for more than 20 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Bluesky.
