Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Julius Randle will square off as 2 of the stars to watch in the West Finals.
There are, each NBA postseason, two kinds of difference-makers: stars and X-factors. Either can boost a team for a game, a series or even the entire playoff run.
The primary distinction between them comes when things don’t go so well. Players considered X-factors don’t face the same obligations or scrutiny as stars do. Someone whose contributions are viewed as a happy bonus in good times can hide in bad times.
Stars, however, enjoy no such luxury. They have expectations to meet, loads to carry, reputations to build or enhance. They’re the players with whom fans and critics will count championship rings when evaluating their careers. It’s a tougher road to travel, but hey, that’s what the money is for.
Here are 12 likely difference-makers — six stars and six X-factors — from the four teams competing in the Eastern and Western conference championships that begin Tuesday in Oklahoma City (listed alphabetically by last name):
Stars
1. Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
Playoff stats: 28.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 7.7 apg
Brunson is the Little Engine That Does for New York, second in scoring among all players who have reached this round (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 29.0) and the leading shot-taker at 22.3 field-goal attempts per game. Since joining the Knicks three years ago, the irrepressible point guard has averaged 30 points in series openers, including 43 in Game 1 vs. Indiana last spring.
2. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
Playoff stats: 26.5 ppg, 8 rpg, 5.9 apg
Come for his highlight dunks and his personality, get reminded of the latest flex in his game: 3-pointers. Edwards made more of them than anyone else in the NBA during the regular season, and he tops all players (35) still active this spring, hitting 44.2% against Golden State in the semis. Matching up now with Gilgeous-Alexander could bring out the best in the Wolves’ star.
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Playoff stats: 29 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 6.4 apg
Gilgeous-Alexander is poised to win the Kia NBA Most Valuable Player for the regular season, but he’s on track as a postseason MVP as well. Don’t think his Minnesota counterpart, Anthony Edwards, won’t notice. Gilgeous-Alexander historically has fattened his stats against the Wolves, topping his career numbers in 23 meetings, including this season: 35 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 6.8 apg, 51.1% shooting (55.6% on 3-pointers). He went to the line 48 times in four games, his most against any opponent.
4. Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers
Playoff stats: 17.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 9.3 apg
The “Overrated” Kid, according to 13 anonymous rivals in a dubious national poll (so don’t forget the quote marks on that label), has given the Pacers what they’ve needed to reach this round for the second consecutive year. He has the lowest scoring average among the stars on this list and no one in Indianapolis bats an eye about that, given his pass-first mentality and knack for picking crucial moments for his offense.
5. Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves
Playoff stats: 23.9 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 5.9 apg
Take your pick of Randle’s production, consistency or impact — all three have been so helpful to the Timberwolves through two rounds that folks are looking at the banging veteran forward with fresh eyes. His ability to bring the ball upcourt has given Edwards mobility, warps a defense and frees aging Mike Conley from that duty. Then he can punish from inside or outside.
6. Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks
Playoff stats: 19.8 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 1.1 apg
Towns has been a double-double machine of late, racking up seven in his last eight games and 28 overall in 44 playoff appearances. He has posted stellar numbers when facing Indiana through the years: 27.8 ppg, 11.1 rpg and 56.1% shooting, including 40% on 3-pointers. Beware of foul trouble, however. He averages 4.4 per playoff game, as opponents increasingly attack him, with four disqualifications and 11 more games of five fouls.
X-factors
7. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves
Playoff stats: 8.9 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 1.3 bpg
Gobert should get to play again, after Minnesota faced the size-challenged Lakers and Warriors in the first two rounds. He has 41 double-doubles in 79 playoff games, but just 10 in 30 since joining the Wolves. The four-time Kia Defensive Player of the Year should come in handy against an OKC attack that ranks third in drives (50.5 per game) this postseason and is the mid-rangiest team remaining (16.6 attempts per game from 10-to-19 feet).
8. Josh Hart, New York Knicks
Playoff stats: 18.2 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 5.2 apg
Surprisingly, there’s no X in Hart’s name, considering how well he typifies what an X-factor guy does. The veteran’s jack-of-all-trades skill set was evident in the Game 6 clincher over Boston — 10 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists — and he scored 40% of his points in the series in the fourth quarters. His work on the glass pops, with 8.7 rpg this postseason after a personal high of 9.6 during the regular season for the 6-foot-4 wing.
9. Isaiah Hartenstein, Oklahoma City Thunder
Playoff stats: 10.3 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 2.8 apg
Hartenstein has given OKC just what it needed before he arrived in an underrated summer transaction. He is producing 14.3 points and 12.2 rebounds per 36 minutes this postseason, both big jumps from his New York work last spring, while shooting 59%. He’s a key reason the Thunder score on 62.3% of their putback opportunities.
10. Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers
Playoff stats: 14.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 6 apg
Nembhard has become a perfect backcourt sidekick to Haliburton near the end of their third season together. He can handle either playmaking or scoring, he is shooting 50.5% overall in these playoffs and 50% on 3-pointers (up from 29.1% in the regular season). The seemingly unflappable 6-foot-5 native of Ontario also frequently draws the tougher defensive assignment.
11. Pascal Siakam, Indiana Pacers
Playoff stats: 18.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.1 apg
Siakam’s production is right where it was last spring when he helped Indiana reach this same stage, except his 3-point shots have been dropping more reliably (44.1% vs. 29.8% a year ago). The wiry 6-foot-8 forward is one of the few Pacers capable of generating offense in the halfcourt and figures to draw Knicks ace defender (and former Raptors teammate) OG Anunoby as New York tries to limit him.
12. Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
Playoff stats: 19.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 5,7 apg
Williams made his All-Star debut in February but slips to the X-factor tier based on recent inconsistency. He shot 55.1% (27-for-49) in three of OKC’s games vs. Denver in the West semis but just 23.8% (15-for-63) in the other four. He did amass 42 assists to only 10 turnovers. Also, Williams’ defensive versatility could prove invaluable against Minnesota, whether he’s logging time on No. 1 threat Edwards or morphing to limit second or third threats such as Randle, Jaden McDaniels or Gobert.
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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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