After the Nuggets reclaim control vs. OKC in Denver, Game 4 becomes pivotal for the rising Thunder's championship hopes.
Purely by definition, seed represents something small, a speck that doesn’t carry any significance until much later. But seeding, as in the NBA playoff pecking order? That comes with heft, a burden and a handful of expectations.
Especially when it’s the top seed. The teams holding that honor in both conferences either haul that weight for several successful weeks or deal with their knees buckling from it.
Which brings us to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers, with the NBA postseason arriving at a midway stage. Where do they sit, or rather, stand?
Well right now, they’re both trailing 2-1 in their respective conference semifinals, putting their playoff survival in a bit of jeopardy.
Of course, not all 2-1s are alike, and certainly not in this case. The Cavs are trailing the Pacers largely because three crucial players missed time in both losses. The Thunder are trailing because they couldn’t finish close games.
There aren’t massive dark clouds overhead in either situation, although there is concern. The margin for error is thin for both favorites. Another stumble and they’re in must-win land, something neither team could’ve imagined during their breezy regular seasons and flawless opening rounds.
Here’s a wellness check on the top seeds, examining their current situations and what’s in store:
Cavaliers
What’s in the past: They won 64 games in an impressive regular season and put all of their nearest competitors in a headlock. And a few folks took bows: Donovan Mitchell will likely collect MVP votes, Evan Mobley won top defensive honors, Kenny Atkinson won Coach of the Year, De’Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome were solid off the bench. They followed up by sweeping the Heat in the first round.
Then, the gut punch in this round, dropping the opening pair at home against the Pacers. There was a reason; Garland missed Game 1, while Mobley and Hunter missed Game 2 after suffering injuries. Still, the Cavs had no choice but deliver in a must-win Game 3, which they did, emphatically.
What’s gone wrong: Jerome was solid in the Miami series and even Game 1 against the Pacers (21 points, eight assists) but missing since. Not only missing, but a liability whenever he had the ball and a chance to do something while Garland sat with injury. Garland is back and Jerome has returned to the bench. The Cavs’ dependency on him therefore is a bit less, but he’s still crucial. That and a careless Max Strus Game 2 inbounds pass cost Cleveland.
Otherwise, blame the two losses on the untimely injuries. It was unfortunate for the Cavs but maybe the silver lining is this: They’ll learn a lot more about themselves being down 2-0 than winning 64 games.
What’s gone right: Donovan Mitchell, that’s what’s right. Seriously — 91 points in the last two games? A haul of highlight plays? What hasn’t he done? Well, his decision-making was shaky in the final minute of Game 2, otherwise, Mitchell’s second round is superb so far. Also, Mitchell is built for this; he has made the playoffs every year of his career and is averaging 28 points, five rebounds and five assists.
When this team is healthy, the Cavs are bringing more force than the Pacers and probably any of the remaining teams in the East. The starting five and the depth are superior. Their Game 3 performance was much more in line with who they are, as opposed to Games 1 and 2.
What’s in store: With the Cavs trailing 2-1, Sunday (8 ET, TNT) seems like a must-win for … Indiana. The Pacers were gifted a pair of wins — and needed Tyrese Haliburton’s last-second heroics to win one of them — because of Cleveland’s injuries.
That said, the Cavs can’t afford to keep relying on Mitchell, even though he hasn’t let them down. Nor can they afford another injury absence; that’s playing with fire. Should they eliminate the Pacers, the Cavs would appear to be the favorite over the Celtics or Knicks next round.
Full Focus: Mitchell drops 43, leads Cavs in Game 3
Thunder
What’s in the past: One of the most dominant seasons in recent NBA history was delivered by a team with no peer. The 68-win Thunder ranked among the league’s best at both ends of the floor and stitched together one lengthy winning streak after another to capture the top seed in the West by a massive 16 games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander placed himself in position to win the franchise’s third Kia MVP.
They romped in the first round and dismissed Memphis without much sweat. And then, finally, some urgency: The Nuggets stunned them twice, in Games 1 and 3 of the West semifinals, which sounded the alarms on OKC’s season.
What’s gone wrong: Maybe it’s unfair to judge Shai so strictly, but he placed the bar so steeply because of his amazing season and unreal efficiency. That said, the league’s scoring leader seems uncharacteristically average in that regard right now, aside from the blowout Game 2 vs. Denver. The supreme efficiency and trips to the free throw line are absent. He shot sub-40% in four of OKC’s seven playoff games. Have the Nuggets in particular figured him out? Can he flourish without free throws?
Also, OKC’s defense hasn’t been so stellar against Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, especially on the perimeter, and that falls on Lu Dort and Alex Caruso. And this: OKC has 16 losses this season, four to Denver.
What’s gone right: Jalen Williams had a suspicious opening game in the Denver series but otherwise seems very much a capable No. 2 option. And in Game 3, J-Dub was OKC’s most reliable player, getting 16 points in the fourth quarter and giving his team a chance.
OKC’s bigs have generally played well throughout the playoffs. Isaiah Hartenstein couldn’t get his floater to fall in Game 3, but he and Chet Holmgren are doing a credible job on Nikola Jokić — save for the Joker’s 42-22 Game 1 of course.
What’s in store: OKC is in this precarious position because of late collapses in both semifinal losses. The first was decided by Gordon’s game-winner, the second at least went into overtime. The Thunder had a chance to win both and could be up 3-0, but here we are.
Shai insists his response Sunday will be forceful. Give him the benefit of the doubt on that. It would be unfathomable if the presumed MVP fails again.
Remember, OKC hasn’t had to sweat all season or through the first round. This is new. This team hasn’t been pressed since last summer in the conference semifinals when it lost to Dallas. If OKC survives this series then it remains the favorite to reach the Finals and maybe win it all.
If the Thunder fail, they’ll be haunted by a suddenly-growing perception of not being able to win in the playoffs with this nucleus.
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Shaun Powell has covered the NBA for more than 25 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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