The Mavs still have a few more weeks to go until Anthony Davis returns to the lineup.
The trade is over, not the tremors. Luka Dončić to the Lakers remains a conversation starter, a where-were-you-at-when-it-happened event, and a head-scratcher. It’s the biggest trade of your lifetime, assuming you were born after Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was shipped to the Lakers in his mid-1970s prime.
The shock never wore off this hush-hush deal between the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers, but the season continues anyway. And that’s the topic at hand. Momentarily putting aside the future and far-ranging implications, what’s the post-trade state of the Lakers and Mavericks this season?
The Mavericks are dealing with a greater sense of urgency, and it’s not close. That’s partly why they made the deal, to win a championship either this season or very soon. They saw a greater pathway with a 31-year-old Anthony Davis and his defense over Dončić, now 26, and his playmaking — even though Dončić took the Mavs to the NBA Finals eight months ago.
If the trade itself generated this much buzz, imagine a first-round playoff series between these teams in April. It’s possible, given where the Lakers and Mavericks are in the West standings and assuming Dallas will rise once Davis returns from an abdominal injury.
With the first meeting between the teams ready to tip on Tuesday (10 ET, TNT), here’s the state of where they are now, and where they might be headed this season:
Dallas Mavericks
Kyrie Irving talks with NBA TV about the Mavs' depth, the impact of the Luka Dončić trade and more.
A 24-hour span over the weekend was about as nightmarish as it could get for the Mavs and their fans: Dončić went ballistic Saturday with 32 points against the Nuggets and then Stephen Curry night-nighted the Mavs, victims of a 24-point blowout on Sunday.
This team is dealing with a triple whammy of injuries right now, with Davis, Daniel Gafford (MCL sprain) and Dereck Lively II (right ankle stress fracture) not returning until next month. In the meantime, Kyrie Irving must carry a squad thin on the front line (and the bench) that is desperate for another consistent scorer.
Irving remains a dangerous play off the dribble, but with Dončić, he wasn’t required to create as much for his teammates. That has changed. The Mavericks were specifically built around Dončić and his playmaking. Without it, the Mavericks are suffering if only because many in the rotation aren’t shot-creators.
That’s the burden Irving faces: to score big nightly, set up teammates and play the hero in tight fourth quarters while Davis heals. Opposing teams will double him constantly in these situations, a strategy that backfired when Dončić was his running mate.
So that’s the task for the Mavericks — try to play at least .500 ball and not lose too much ground in the standings until Davis returns.
The good news is Irving has been steady this month, even before the trade as Dončić recovered from a calf injury that benched him for six weeks. Before the loss to Golden State, the Mavericks had won six of their last seven games (the lone loss was to the Kings in overtime by one point). Irving had 35 points against the Pelicans on Feb. 21 and 42 points in a Feb. 12 win over the Warriors.
Still, Dallas’ starting lineup of Irving, PJ Washington, Kessler Edwards, Klay Thompson and Dante Exum isn’t exactly imposing.
But when Davis and the others return, the situation could quickly do an about-face. Suddenly, the Mavericks would perhaps have the best rim protectors in basketball in Davis, Washington, Lively and Gafford.
Also, Davis will be on a mission, much like he was in his Mavs debut, his lone game before his abdominal injury when he notched 26 points, 16 rebounds and three blocks. If he returns healthy and stays healthy, the Mavericks could be contenders for the conference title.
Again, there’s the issue of Dallas biding its time until then. The basketball gods are sympathetic — six of the next 10 games are against teams with losing records. But that also means the Mavericks can’t afford a slump. If they fall into the SoFi Play-In Tournament, anything can happen.
If they miss out on the playoffs completely while Dončić and the Lakers travel into May, the backlash in Dallas might get severe — meaning, the emotion could regress from anger to nobody cares anymore.
Los Angeles Lakers
Luka Dončić and LeBron James showed how potent they can be together in Dallas' big win vs. Denver.
The organization hastily had giveaway Dončić No. 77 jerseys made and draped over every seat for his home debut. Has any team given such a welcome before? And Dirk Nowitzki, the greatest player in Mavericks history, flew to L.A. and was at the game. You wonder: Did Nowitzki drive downtown to Davis’ debut in Dallas, too, as a show of support for the newest Maverick? And if not, whoa.
That alone speaks volumes about the trade and which side sentiment lies. That alone describes the continued good fortune of the Lakers and their history of landing generational stars, starting with George Mikan (Minneapolis Lakers), then Jerry West and Elgin Baylor and so on. That alone explains how the basketball world strongly suspects the Lakers getting the better end of the deal. Assuming all goes well, they’re set with a centerpiece for the next decade, long after LeBron James retires.
But, sticking to this year alone … what is the Lakers’ ceiling? They’re a playoff contender because they’re blessed with three cerebral creators in Dončić, James and Austin Reaves. All three put stress on opposing defenses by being crafty and unpredictable off the dribble.
They’ll need to be all that because the Lakers aren’t loaded with lob threats and finishers. James had that with Davis and Dončić had it with Gafford and Washington. Will Rui Hachimura step into that role? Someone else? The trick now is making lesser teammates better, and if so, scoring shouldn’t be a problem.
The Lakers’ 3-point shooting is spotty (they’re 28th in 3-pointers made and 17th in 3-point percentage) and will go as far as their defense takes them, which could be problematic. Davis was instrumental for the team — and it had defensive issues even with him on it. The Lakers are 13th in defensive rating (113.1) overall this season, but are No. 3 in defensive rating (107.3) since making the trade (they’ve only played eight games, though).
Without him, the Lakers lack an elite rim protector and stopper. Even though they did beat Nikola Jokić and the Nuggets on Saturday, their defense could haunt the Lakers in the West playoffs if and when they face an active big man such as Jokić, Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren or Houston’s Alperen Sengun.
Much of this issue would’ve been solved (or at least reduced) if the trade for Charlotte Hornets center Mark Williams went through. Now the Lakers must cope with the Jaxson Hayes Experience and wait until the offseason to address their size dilemma. Keep in mind that James isn’t getting any younger.
But again, this conversation is about this season, so …
The Lakers are in fourth place and barring a collapse are safely within the top six automatic playoff qualifiers. Assuming they stay put, the Lakers’ postseason fate will come down to matchups and Dončić’s comfort zone with his new teammates (he started slowly), how well he improves defensively (a major issue in the 2024 NBA Finals) and James’ stamina (he is 40, after all).
It’s conceivable that L.A. can win a round against a favorable matchup. After that, it gets dicey, for all the reasons mentioned, for a team that made this trade with the future in mind more than the present.
If the Lakers and Mavericks both fall shy of the NBA Finals, they should at least conspire to give the basketball world what it craves — a playoff series. Make it happen, because folks haven’t discussed this trade enough.
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Shaun Powell has covered the NBA for more than 25 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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