Starting 5 Daily Newsletter

Starting 5, May 18: Thunder, Nuggets clash in Game 7 showdown

Kia MVP finalists Nikola Jokić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander face off in a win-or-go-home Game 7, with a trip to the West Finals against Minnesota on the line.

Thunder. Nuggets. Game 7. 3:30 ET, ABC
Which team will meet the Wolves in the Western Conference Finals?


5 STORIES IN TODAY’S EDITION 🏀

Game 7 In 1 Minute: Everything you need to know entering today’s matchup

How We Got Here: The year-long paths that brought Denver & OKC to today’s game

SGA Vs. Joker: The two Kia NBA MVP finalists get the Game 7 spotlight today

5 Potential X-Factors: Injury status, Game 7 experience, depth and more

Game 7 History: Look back at some classic Game 7 moments and games


BUT FIRST … ⏰

Game 7 Is Here: Denver and OKC clash for the 11th and final time this season (3:30 ET, ABC) with a trip to the West Finals on the line.

WNBA Saturday: Caitlin Clark’s triple-double (20 pts, 10 reb, 10 ast) led Indy past Chicago, Breanna Stewart (25 pts) helped New York open its title defense with a win over A’ja Wilson (31 pts, 16 reb) and Vegas, while Satou Sabally (27 pts) led Phoenix past Seattle.


1. EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT GAME 7 IN 1 MINUTE

The stakes are the same for the Thunder and Nuggets entering today’s Game 7 (3:30 ET, ABC).

  • One win away from a trip to the Western Conference Finals
  • One loss away from their 2024-25 season coming to an end

After a back-and-forth series that’s been tied at 1-1, 2-2 and now 3-3, this Western Conference Semifinals will be decided in just 48 minutes of high-stakes hoops (and maybe a few more if overtime is needed).

  • The Thunder look to keep their magical season going – a run that saw them earn a franchise-record 68 wins, set the NBA record for point differential (+12.9) and hold 1st place in the West for over 4 straight months
  • The Nuggets look to win their second straight Game 7 and keep their title hopes alive. Denver made a change in leadership a week before the Playoffs hoping it would ignite a spark. Knocking off the West’s 1-seed would certainly qualify 

Looking for which team has an edge, Playoff history offers a mixed message (all stats below entering 2025 Playoffs).

  • Teams that win Game 1 of a best-of-seven series go on to win the series 75.2% of the time (465-153). Denver took Game 1 to hold this advantage
  • Teams that win Game 1 on the road in a best-of-seven series go on to win the series 52.0% of the time (90-83). Denver’s Game 1 win was in OKC
  • Teams that win Game 3 of a 1-1 best-of-seven series go on to win the series 74.2% of the time (198-69). Denver won Game 3 at home
  • Teams that win Game 5 of a 2-2 best-of-seven series go on to win the series 81.3% of the time (191-44). OKC took Game 5 to hold this advantage
  • Home teams win Game 7 of a best-of-seven series 74.2% of the time (112-39). OKC has Game 7 on his home court
  • All six teams to win 68+ games in the regular season (prior to OKC this year) have reached at least the conference finals, with five of those six reaching the NBA Finals, and four of those five winning the title
  • With Golden State and Boston eliminated in the conference semifinals, Denver is the only team remaining that can be the first to win multiple titles in the 2020s

The Timberwolves await the winner of this game, with the Western Conference Finals set to tip off on Tuesday (8:30 ET, ESPN). With Minnesota as the 6-seed, Game 1 will be played at either 1-seed Oklahoma City or 4-seed Denver.

  • The Wolves swept their regular-season series with the Nuggets (4-0, 13.3 average margin of victory) after ending Denver’s title defense in the 2024 West Semis in seven games
  • The Wolves split their regular-season series with the Thunder (2-2), making them only five teams to beat the Thunder more than once this season

2. HOW WE GOT HERE: A MATCHUP A YEAR IN THE MAKING

The road to today’s Game 7 of the Western Conference Semifinals began a year ago when both the Nuggets and Thunder were eliminated from the 2024 Playoffs in this same round.

  • Denver saw its 2023 title defense come to an end in historic fashion as Minnesota made the largest Game 7 comeback in NBA history to defeat the Nuggets in Denver
  • Oklahoma City edged out both Denver and Minnesota to enter the 2024 postseason as the West’s 1-seed and end a three-year Playoff drought. However, the young Thunder fell to the eventual West champion Mavs in six games 

Both teams entered the offseason coming off a disappointing finish and looking for ways to bounce back in 2025.

  • Denver did not shake up its roster much. They saw Kentavious Caldwell-Pope sign with Orlando in free agency and added veteran Russell Westbrook to pair with Nikola Jokić – giving Denver two of the top three in triple-doubles ever
  • OKC made two key moves in the summer. They acquired All-Defensive Team pick Alex Caruso from Chicago (for Josh Giddey) and signed Isaiah Hartenstein as a free agent (from New York) to add rim protection and rebounding on the frontline

Once the regular season tipped off, OKC raced to the front of the West. The Thunder were a top-two team in just one week and held the top spot in the conference every single day from Nov. 25 until the end of the regular season on April 13.

  • Denver had its ups and downs over the season’s first 10 weeks, but once the calendar flipped to 2025, they were a top-4 team for all but one day the rest of the season
  • That run was put in jeopardy by a four-game losing streak to open April, which sparked a change in leadership with David Adelman taking over as head coach. Denver responded by winning its final three games to hold onto the 4-seed

Once the Playoffs began, the Thunder picked up right where they left off in the regular season, sweeping Memphis in the first round, including the largest Game 1 win (+51) in Playoff history.

On the other hand, the Nuggets needed all seven games to eliminate the Clippers, winning the decisive Game 7 on their home floor. It was Denver’s second straight 7-game series (this one against OKC makes it three straight).

All of that led us to this series, which has played out like a heavyweight bout, with the teams trading haymakers over the first six games.

  • Game 1: Aaron Gordon delivered his 2nd game-winner of the Playoffs with a wing 3 with 2.8 ticks left
  • Game 2: OKC rebounded in dominant fashion, cruising to a 43-point win to even the series
  • Game 3: Gordon’s 3 with 28 seconds left forced OT, which Denver won 11-2 to go up 2-1
  • Game 4: OKC outscored the Nuggets 29-18 in the 4th to rally for the win and even the series
  • Game 5: Another huge 4th quarter helped OKC overcome Nikola Jokić’s 44-15-5 and go up 3-2
  • Game 6: Jokić did it all (29 pts, 14 reb, 8 ast), Murray overcame illness (25 pts) and Christian Braun stepped up (23 pts) to knot the series

3. SGA VS. JOKER: MVP FINALISTS CLASH IN GAME 7

Two of the season’s defining players – Oklahoma City’s scoring champ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Denver’s do-it-all maestro Nikola Jokić – meet one final time to decide whose historic season gets to continue.

  • SGA has been an unstoppable force this season (32.7 PTS, 5.0 REB, 6.4 AST, 1.7 STL, 1.0 BLK), claiming his first league scoring title while leading the NBA in 20+, 30+, 40+, and 50+ point games this season
  • He’s either shifting rhythm and angle to find space to get to the rim, stepping back comfortably in the midrange, or pulling up from beyond the arc
  • Jokić made history as the first player to rank top 3 in points, rebounds and assists (29.7 PTS, 12.7 REB, 10.2 AST, 1.8 STL). The Joker is one-of-a-kind
  • He powers his team with each and every deft touch or decision, equally gifted in scoring on his own or setting up his teammates for success

The stage is set for greatness to make itself known as both players look to lead their teams to the Western Conference Finals.

Last year, both SGA and Jokić went home in the second round. They’ve rebounded with world-class seasons, finishing as two of the three Kia NBA MVP Finalists, along with Giannis Antetokounmpo. 

This is NBA history, written at the highest level. With today’s Game 7 (3:30 ET, ABC), two of the game’s greats will face off with legacy on the line.

 

  • The Best Two Words In Sports: This will be the seventh Game 7 in Jokić’s career – the Nuggets are 4-2 in the first six. It’ll be the second in Shai’s – the Thunder are 0-1
  • The Center Of Attention: Jokić is averaging 6.7 AST and 17.3 points in the paint in wins this series. In losses, that drops to 4.7 AST and 12.0 points in the paint
  • Bucket Getters: Two of the league’s top three leading scorers by PPG last faced off in a Game 7 in 2016, featuring the Warriors’ Stephen Curry and then-Thunder Kevin Durant
  • Leading Men: Both superstars have shown out this series – SGA’s put up four 30+ point games this series, while Jokić has two 40+ point performances


 

4. POTENTIAL GAME 7 X-FACTORS

Over the past two weeks, we’ve seen two evenly-matched teams trying to find an edge in this series.

Each has an MVP finalist that has delivered at an elite level – Jokić (29.8 ppg, 14.7 rpg, 5.7 apg, 58.0 TS%, 29.9 USG%) and SGA (28.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 7.0 apg, 60.6 TS%, 28.6 USG%).

While the focus of both teams begins on those stars, Game 7s can often turn from an unsung hero, a player beyond the marquee stars that raises their game to meet the stakes.

Here’s a look at five potential X-factors that could help determine Game 7.

  • Aaron Gordon’s Hamstring: Listed is questionable for Sunday with a hamstring strain, Gordon’s been vital to Denver’s success all postseason. If he’s out – or limited – it will force new rotations and heavier minutes for players like Julian Strawther (who had 15 pts in Game 6), Peyton Watson and Russell Westbrook
  • Jalen Williams’ Shot-Making: J-Dub shot 48.4% this season and is a career 51.3% shooter. However, he’s shot over 40% only twice in this series, and is coming off a 3-of-16 performance in Game 6. Can he find his stroke with the season on the line?
  • Jamal Murray’s Health: Listed as questionable for Game 6 with an illness, Murray dropped 25-8-7 in 42 minutes and said postgame there was no way he wasn’t going to play. Listed as probable for Game 7, can Murray repeat that effort?

  • OKC’s Depth: SGA leads the Thunder in minutes this series (37.8 mpg), just slightly more than Gordon (37.6 mpg), who ranks 4th for Denver behind Jokić, Murray and Braun. OKC’s depth allows them to use waves of players to wear down opponents over the course of a game (and series)
  • Game 7 Experience: While OKC may have young legs, Denver has veteran savvy and loads of Game 7 experience. This will be Denver’s league-leading 7th Game 7 since 2019, including their 3rd consecutive series to go the full seven games – giving the Nuggets familiarity with the pressure and energy that comes with a winner-take-all game

5. BEST MOMENTS IN GAME 7 HISTORY


Today marks the 154th Game 7 in NBA history – and the third of this postseason.

Before we add a new chapter to Game 7 lore, let’s take a look back at some of the greatest Game 7 moments ever – presented in chronological order:

  • 1965 East Finals (Celtics 110, Sixers 109): Remembered for one of the greatest calls in league history, with Boston radio announcer Johnny Most yelling “Havlicek stole the ball!” as John Havlicek’s steal sealed Boston’s win
  • 1970 NBA Finals (Knicks 113, Lakers 99):  An injured Willis Reed emerged from the Knicks locker room to take the court for Game 7, inspiring his team to win their first NBA title
  • 1984 NBA Finals (Celtics 111, Lakers 102): Five years after they met in the 1979 NCAA title game (won by Magic’s Michigan State), Larry Bird and Magic Johnson met in the NBA Finals for the first time (won by Bird’s Celtics in 7 games)

  • 1988 East Semis (Celtics 118, Hawks 116): Basketball may be a team game, but this series came down to a shootout between Dominique Wilkins and Larry Bird
  • 1995 West Semis (Rockets 115, Suns 114): Houston’s Mario Elie sank the go-ahead corner 3 with 7.1 seconds left and celebrated with the “Kiss of Death”
  • 2000 West Finals (Lakers 89, Portland 84): The Kobe-to-Shaq alley-oop capped off a 15-point 4th-quarter comeback leading to L.A.’s first of three straight titles

  • 2010 NBA Finals (Lakers 83, Celtics 79): The Lakers overcame a 13-point deficit in the 3rd quarter to defeat their historic rival and clinch back-to-back titles
  • 2015 First Round (Clippers 111, Spurs 109): Chris Paul hit a running bank shot over Tim Duncan with 1 second left to lift the “Lob City” Clippers over the defending champs
  • 2016 NBA Finals (Cavaliers 93, Warriors 89): Cleveland completes the first-ever 3-1 comeback in the NBA Finals behind a “block by James” and a game-winning Kyrie Irving 3
  • 2019 East Semis (Raptors 92, Sixers 90): Kawhi Leonard’s baseline jumper that dropped through the net after four bounces on the rim was the first game-winning buzzer-beater in Game 7 history

  • 2021 East Semis (Bucks 115, Nets 111, OT): Kevin Durant (48 pts) hit a shot for the ages to keep Brooklyn alive (and was a toe away from winning it), but Giannis (40 pts) and Milwaukee’s defense shined in the end to win a legendary battle
  • 2023 First Round (Warriors 120, Kings 100): Steph Curry dropped the first-ever 50-point performance in a Game 7 to knock off the Kings on the road
  • 2023 East Semis (Celtics 112, Sixers 88): Curry’s Game 7 scoring record lasted only two weeks as Jayson Tatum scored 51 points in the next round
  • 2024 West Semis (Timberwolves 98, Nuggets 90): We mentioned it earlier, but the Wolves trailed by 20 in the 3rd quarter before mounting the biggest comeback in Game 7 history to advance

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