Power Rankings, Week 25: Where every team stands 1 week before the postseason

Record: 62-16

OffRtg: 117.6 (7) DefRtg: 106.0 (1) NetRtg: +11.6 (1) Pace: 100.4 (14)

The Thunder seem to have outlasted the Spurs, who lost in Denver on Saturday, increasing the Thunder’s lead at the top of the Western Conference to three games. The champs have won five straight, with three of those wins coming against teams in the league’s top 10: the Knicks, Pistons and Lakers.

One takeaway

The Thunder struggled to beat the Pistons (who were without four starters) last Monday, escaping with an overtime victory after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander got called for a rare offensive foul and Daniss Jenkins missed a shot for the win at the end of regulation. The Thunder had played the day before and, even with the win, are just 6-7 in the second games of back-to-backs. Of course, there are no back-to-backs in the playoffs, and the Thunder are 56-9 with rest, having outscored their opponents by 14.7 points per 100 possessions over those 65 games. That’s better than their record (57-11) and point differential (plus-13.7 per 100) with rest last season.

What to watch for this week

If the Spurs were to go 4-0 this week, the Thunder would need to go 2-2 to clinch the 1 seed. The team (the Lakers) that the Thunder beat by 43 points on Thursday will be without two of its three best players for the rematch on Tuesday, and the Suns are unlikely to have anything to play for on Sunday afternoon. However, there’s certainly value in Jalen Williams playing more minutes, though it seems doubtful that he’ll suit up for both games of their back-to-back in Los Angeles.

Week 25: @ LAL, @ LAC, @ DEN, vs. PHX

Record: 59-19

OffRtg: 118.6 (5) DefRtg: 110.2 (3) NetRtg: +8.4 (2) Pace: 100.8 (12)

From Feb. 1 to April 1, the Spurs went 26-1 with Victor Wembanyama in uniform, outscoring their opponents by an amazing 24.9 points per 100 possessions in his 800 minutes on the floor. But that wasn’t good enough to catch the Thunder, and the Spurs’ overtime loss to the Nuggets on Saturday afternoon has them three games back of Oklahoma City with four games to play.

One takeaway

The loss on Saturday was the first time this season (in three meetings) that Wembanyama had played against Denver, and it was the Spurs’ worst defensive game (136 points allowed on 107 possessions) since December. The Nuggets shot just 21-for-41 (51%) in the paint, but were 9-for-14 from mid-range and 9-for-19 on corner 3-pointers.

The Spurs lead the league in the percentage of their opponents’ shots (13%) that have come from mid-range and have the seventh highest opponent corner rate (percentage of their opponents’ 3-point attempts that come from the corners), and Denver is uniquely qualified to keep Wembanyama occupied and have five shooters on the floor. The Nuggets’ nine players who’ve shot 38% or better on at least 100 3-point attempts are three more than any other team has.

What to watch for this week

While the Spurs aren’t quite locked into the 2 seed in the West (and the second best record overall), they’re close. But to qualify for awards consideration, Wembanyama needs to play in three more games, logging at least 20 minutes in two of the three and at least 15 minutes in the third. The Spurs are the only team without any more road games and while their season finale against Denver might not mean anything to them, there’s a chance it will determine whether the Nuggets pass the shorthanded Lakers in the standings and become a potential opponent in the second round.

Week 25: vs. PHI, vs. POR, vs. DAL, vs. DEN

Record: 53-25

OffRtg: 119.9 (2) DefRtg: 111.7 (4) NetRtg: +8.2 (4) Pace: 95.5 (30)

The Celtics lost in Atlanta last Monday, but have still won 10 of their last 12 games and are 12-2 (with six straight wins) with Jayson Tatum in uniform. His efficiency is picking up, and he’s averaged 25.8 points, 11.8 rebounds and 8.8 assists over his last four games.

One takeaway

Last year, the Celtics became the first team since the NBA-ABA merger to rank in the top five on both ends of the floor in three straight seasons. And they’re in position to do it for a fourth straight, despite losing four guys from last year’s playoff rotation and missing Tatum for the first 62 games of the season. The defense ranks in the top two in both opponent field goal percentage in the paint (53.2%, second) and the percentage of opponents’ shots in the paint (43%, lowest).

The offense, meanwhile, continues to have some ridiculously efficient performances. In the 30 seasons for which we have play-by-play data, there have been 14 games where a team has scored more than 150 points per 100 possessions and, with their win in Miami on Wednesday, the 2025-26 Celtics account for four of the 14.

What to watch for this week

The Celtics would need a win over the Hornets and a Knicks loss in Atlanta to clinch the 2 seed before the two teams meet in New York on Thursday. The Knicks have won two of the first three meetings, having scored 121.1 points per 100 possessions (the third best mark for any team against Boston) over the three games. Some of that was second-chance points and rebounding is going to be a critical issue in any playoff series against New York or Detroit, the two teams with the highest offensive rebounding percentages against the Celtics this season.

Week 25: vs. CHA, @ NYK, vs. NOP, vs. ORL

Record: 57-21

OffRtg: 116.9 (10) DefRtg: 108.6 (2) NetRtg: +8.3 (3) Pace: 99.9 (19)

Cade Cunningham has missed the last 10 games, but the Pistons have won eight of the 10, with five of those wins coming against teams with winning records. They’ve allowed just 104.7 points per 100 possessions over those five wins (even though Isaiah Stewart has also been out), and by holding the Sixers to just a point per possession on Saturday, the Pistons have clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference for the first time in 19 years.

One takeaway

Last season, the Pistons were, statistically, the league’s second most improved team from the year before. This season, they’re the fourth most improved, now an amazing 17.3 points per 100 possessions better than they were in 2023-24 (minus-9.0 per 100). That tops the two-year rise that J.B. Bickerstaff oversaw in Cleveland, where the 2022-23 Cavs were 13.9 points per 100 possessions better than the ’20-21 version.

With the Pistons having scored 2.2 more points per 100 possessions than the league average, this will be their best offensive season in the last 18 years. And with them having allowed 6.1 per 100 fewer than the league average, it will be their best defensive season in the last 21.

What to watch for this week

Cunningham has already been eliminated from All-NBA consideration, and he’s going to miss at least two more games. Jalen Duren, meanwhile, needs to play at least 20 minutes in two more games to qualify for both All-NBA and the Most Improved Player award. As things stand, the only thing the team could be playing for is home-court advantage in a potential Finals series with the Spurs, but the Pistons would need to be three games better than San Antonio in the final week to gain that. It’s not clear that the Pistons have an “off” switch, but it could be Chaz Lanier’s time to shine.

Week 25: @ ORL, vs. MIL, @ CHA, @ IND

Record: 50-28

OffRtg: 120.8 (1) DefRtg: 116.0 (21) NetRtg: +4.8 (8) Pace: 99.5 (20)

The Nuggets have won eight straight games, scoring more than 121 points per 100 possessions in all eight, including an overtime win over the Spurs on Saturday afternoon. (Five of their six games against Oklahoma City and San Antonio have been determined by six points or less, with two of them going to OT.) They’ve won 50 games for the fourth straight season, and they’ve got the biggest matchup advantage in the league.

One takeaway

Nikola Jokić is going to be the first player to ever lead the league in both rebounds and assists per game, he’s averaging an uber-efficient 27.9 points for the league’s No. 1 offense, and that offense has scored 13.9 more points per 100 possessions with him on the floor (125.8) than it has with him off the floor (111.9). And it still might not be enough to win the MVP award.

What to watch for this week

Denver doesn’t have the tie-breaker against the third-place Lakers, but the Lakers don’t have Luka Dončić or Austin Reaves. So the opportunity is there to take the No. 3 seed. The Nuggets have won their last eight home games and they’ll host the Blazers and Grizzlies before finishing their season with two more games against the top two teams in the West. The Thunder and Spurs might not have much to play for by then.

The Nuggets’ starting lineup has still played just 21 games together, so there’s value in getting some additional reps in this week. But with Peyton Watson (hamstring strain) back on the shelf, keeping Aaron Gordon fresh for the playoffs is extra important.

Week 25: vs. POR, vs. MEM, vs. OKC, @ SAS

Record: 50-28

OffRtg: 118.8 (3) DefRtg: 112.3 (8) NetRtg: +6.5 (5) Pace: 98.0 (25)

After losing three straight games against good teams on the road, the Knicks took care of business against the Grizzlies and Bulls to stay one game in the loss column ahead of the fourth-place Cavs. There’s been some defensive slippage, with the five games prior to the win over Chicago being the Knicks’ worst stretch on that end of the floor (126 points allowed per 100 possessions) this season.

One takeaway

The Knicks starting lineup is now a plus-2 (it’s outscored opponents by a grand total of two points), having scored just 114.2 points per 100 possessions, in its 494 minutes this season. All five of those players are critical to the team’s success, but the Knicks have been much better offensively (122.8 scored per 100) in 875 minutes with four of the five starters on the floor and one off. The defensive numbers have been bad (124.6 allowed per 100) as the starting lineup has been outscored by 7.2 per 100 in its 174 minutes against the other nine Eastern Conference teams with winning records.

The good news is that the Knicks don’t need to rely on the starters as much as they did last year. Mitchell Robinson is healthier, Landry Shamet has improved, Miles McBride has shot incredibly well, and both Jose Alvarado and Jordan Clarkson have been positive additions.

What to watch for this week

The Knicks have four more games within the top 10 in the East this week. They may prefer the path of the 4 seed, but they lost their three games against the Pistons by an average of 28 points. They’re 2-1 against Boston and didn’t have OG Anunoby for the loss in December. The final meeting is Thursday at Madison Square Garden.

Week 25: @ ATL, vs. BOS, vs. TOR, vs. CHA

Record: 50-28

OffRtg: 117.0 (9) DefRtg: 115.7 (20) NetRtg: +1.3 (16) Pace: 99.3 (21)

Uh oh. The Lakers were playing their best basketball, clinching just their third 50-win season in the last 15 years, and cruising to the 3 seed in the West. But both Luka Dončić (hamstring strain) and Austin Reaves (oblique injury) were injured in their 43-point loss in Oklahoma City on Thursday. They’re both out for the final week of the season and their status for the playoffs is unknown.

One takeaway

Prior to Sunday, the Lakers had outscored their opponents by 7.2 points per 100 possessions in LeBron James’ 408 total minutes on the floor without Dončić or Reaves. But they’re now 0-2 when James is the only one of the three in uniform. The first of those two losses was (by 16 points) in Portland in January and the second was in Dallas on Sunday, ending a streak of 12 straight wins against the bottom 10 teams in the league. Luke Kennard was in the starting lineup and recorded his first career triple-double, but bench minutes were an issue, with the Mavs going on a 30-8 run spanning the first and second quarters.

What to watch for this week

The Lakers are now tied with the Nuggets for third place and just a game ahead of the fifth-place Rockets. The Lakers have the head-to-head tie-breakers against both, but they’ll need to play better than they did on Sunday to keep from sliding two spots and losing home-court advantage in the first round. Of course, if Dončić and Reaves aren’t healthy 12 (or 13) days from now, home-court advantage won’t matter much.

Week 25: vs. OKC, @ GSW, vs. PHX, vs. UTA

Record: 49-29

OffRtg: 117.2 (8) DefRtg: 112.2 (6) NetRtg: +5.0 (7) Pace: 96.8 (29)

The Rockets have won six straight games to keep themselves in the mix for a top-four spot in the West. It’s been a mostly soft stretch of schedule, but they beat the Knicks handily on Tuesday and spoiled Stephen Curry’s return over the weekend. And they’ve seemingly found their offense, scoring a red-hot 129.1 points per 100 possessions over the six games.

One takeaway

Tari Eason got the start against the Knicks, Reed Sheppard was back in the lineup for the last three games, and Aaron Holiday was on the floor down the stretch at Golden State on Sunday. The Rockets actually have three different lineups that include their four full-time starters and have played more than 250 minutes, because those four guys have missed only two, three, four and nine games, respectively. The data says that Eason has been the most effective fifth man and that the defense has been subpar (121.1 points allowed per 100 possessions) with Sheppard in that spot.

What to watch for this week

The Rockets lost the tie-breakers to both the third-place Lakers and fourth-place Nuggets, so raw odds say that they’ll likely remain in fifth place. But with L.A. now missing both Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves, there could be an opportunity to move up, and their four remaining games are all winnable. They’ve allowed just a point per possession as they’ve gone 3-0 against the Suns, who they’ll visit on Tuesday.

Week 25: @ PHX, vs. PHI, vs. MIN, vs. MEM

Record: 49-29

OffRtg: 118.1 (6) DefRtg: 114.0 (14) NetRtg: +4.2 (9) Pace: 100.6 (13)

The Cavs haven’t had the look of a contender, having faced fourth-quarter deficits against the Jazz, Warriors (without Stephen Curry) and Pacers (who didn’t play any starters) last week. The silver lining in not winning more comfortably against bad teams is that they’ve now won their last seven games that were within five points in the last five minutes, having allowed just 21 points on 33 clutch defensive possessions over that stretch. The Cavs have also won their last eight games in which they’ve been rested and still trail the Knicks by just a game for third place in the East, though New York owns the tie-breaker.

One takeaway

The Cavs’ bigger drop-off from last season has been on offense. But since James Harden’s arrival, they rank fourth offensively and just 18th on defense. They’re 7-5 against other teams currently over .500 with Harden in uniform, with both the Cavs and their opponents having scored more than 120 points per 100 possessions over those 12 games. Though they also added a guy (Keon Ellis) near the top of the league in deflections per 36 minutes, they’ve seen a huge drop in opponent turnover rate since the Harden addition.

What to watch for this week

If the standings stay the way they are, it’ll be Cavs-Hawks in the first round. But first, they’ll play a home-and-home set this week, having not faced each other since November. No matter who they’re playing, the Cavs could use some more reps for their core, with Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen still having played just 76 minutes together. Max Strus has been on the floor for only 31 of those.

Week 25: @ MEM, vs. ATL, @ ATL, vs. WAS

Record: 46-32

OffRtg: 115.1 (14) DefRtg: 112.1 (5) NetRtg: +3.1 (10) Pace: 101.4 (10)

The Wolves are limping (literally and figuratively) into the playoffs. Anthony Edwards is still dealing with a knee issue and is now ineligible for All-NBA consideration, having missed eight of the last 10 games. Jaden McDaniels also has a knee injury, has missed the last five games, and might miss the rest of the regular season. The Wolves are almost locked into the 6 seed, from which they got to the conference finals last year.

One takeaway

The Wolves’ starting lineup still leads the league with 710 total minutes played together, though that number is just short of the minutes logged by last season’s lineup (714). The lineup has outscored opponents by 7.9 points per 100 possessions, a mark that ranks 11th among 19 lineups that have played at least 200 minutes, and the numbers have been very similar (plus-7.4 per 100) in 158 minutes with the other four starters on the floor without McDaniels.

It’s not a good time for the Wolves to have finally caught the injury bug, and they’re not exactly playing well right now, but the addition of Ayo Dosunmu at the deadline does make the absence of Edwards or McDaniels a little easier to withstand.

What to watch for this week

The Wolves’ magic number (combination of Minnesota wins and Phoenix losses) to clinch a top-six spot in the West is two, and they’ve got two games against teams – the Pacers and Pelicans – that are a combined 2-12 against the top 20 teams in the league over the last 17 days. After their game in Indiana, the Wolves will visit Orlando, having had one of their worst offensive games of the season (with Edwards in the lineup) against the Magic less than a month ago.

Week 25: @IND, @ ORL, @ HOU, vs. NOP

Record: 45-33

OffRtg: 115.1 (13) DefRtg: 112.7 (9) NetRtg: +2.5 (11) Pace: 102.5 (5)

The Hawks continue to roll. They’ve won 17 of their last 19 games, with wins over the Pistons and Celtics included, having held Boston to 15-for-37 (40.5%) shooting in the paint last Monday. They’ve now been 13.5 points per 100 possessions better since the All-Star break (plus-12.2) than they were prior (minus-1.3), which would be the biggest post-break improvement (by a healthy margin) for any team in the last 27 years.

One takeaway

You could argue that Nickeil-Alexander Walker and Jalen Johnson are the two leading candidates for the Most Improved Player award. Onyeka Okongwu has also done well with a larger role and while Dyson Daniels continues to struggle from beyond the arc (18%), he’s done well as a secondary playmaker, averaging a career-high 6.4 assists per 36 minutes, with an assist/turnover ratio of 3.24. The Hawks’ starting lineup (with CJ McCollum) has now outscored opponents by 23.9 points per 100 possessions, which would be the fourth best mark for a lineup that’s played at least 250 minutes in the 19 years for which we have lineup data.

What to watch for this week

The Hawks are in fifth place, but a top-six spot in the East is far from sewn up, because they’re one of three teams – the Knicks and Thunder are the others – with four games remaining against teams with winning records. They’re 5-7 (4-2 since Jan. 1) against the top four teams in the East, set to play three against the Knicks and Cavs (x 2) in the next five days. There’s a good chance that the Cleveland games are playoff previews, with the two previous meetings (which both took place in November) having both been within five points in the last five minutes. The much bigger difference between the Hawks’ win and the Cavs’ win was on Atlanta’s end of the floor.

Week 25: vs. NYK, @ CLE, vs. CLE, @ MIA

Record: 43-36

OffRtg: 118.7 (4) DefRtg: 113.4 (12) NetRtg: +5.3 (6) Pace: 97.8 (26)

The Hornets remain the best story in the league. After winning just 19 games last season, they’ve clinched just their fifth winning record since the birth of the Bobcats 22 years ago. With a four-game winning streak, they’ve climbed to eighth place in the East and are tied with the sixth-place Sixers in the win column.

One takeaway

The Hornets are now 14.4 points per 100 possessions better than they were last season (minus-9.1), which would be the biggest season-to-season improvement in the 30 years for which we have play-by-play data. So it’s bigger than that of the Celtics when they added Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett and bigger than that of the Spurs when they drafted Tim Duncan and got David Robinson back from injury.

The Hornets rank as the league’s fifth most improved defensive team from last season, but their offensive improvement (12.0 more points scored per 100 possessions) is more than double that of any other team. They’re in position to rank in the top five on either end of the floor for just the second time in these last 22 seasons since expansion, and that fourth-ranked offense has now been 13.3 points per 100 possessions better with LaMelo Ball on the floor (123.9 scored per 100) than it’s been with him off the floor (110.6).

What to watch for this week

The Hornets’ final week, games against the top three teams in the East, might not be as daunting as it looks. The Celtics still have something to play for, so their game in Boston on Tuesday could be tough. But they did win there (by 29 points) last month, the Pistons have already clinched the No. 1 seed, and the Knicks will probably be locked into the 3 seed by Sunday. Overall, Charlotte is 2-5 (1-2 on the road) against the East’s top three.

Week 25: @ BOS, vs. DET, @ NYK

Record: 43-35

OffRtg: 114.3 (17) DefRtg: 112.9 (10) NetRtg: +1.5 (14) Pace: 98.3 (24)

Dillon Brooks and Mark Williams returned from extended absences last week, but the Suns went 1-2 in Brooks’ three games back and are just 4-8 over the last 24 days. They’re almost a lock to finish seventh in the West and host the 7-8 Play-In game.

One takeaway

The Suns’ improvement from last season is almost all about the possession game. They haven’t seen a big change in opponent shot quality, but have seen the league’s second biggest improvement on defense (points allowed per 100 possessions), largely because they’ve seen a huge jump in opponent turnover rate. And they’ve stayed afloat (a little worse than average) offensively because they’ve seen the biggest jump in offensive rebounding percentage by a wide margin. They’ve averaged 3.4 more shot opportunities than their opponents, the league’s third best differential and up from 4.3 fewer per game (28th) last season.

What to watch for this week

The Suns still need two more wins (or help from the Clippers’ opponents) to clinch seventh place, and up next is a visit from the Rockets on Tuesday. They’re 0-3 against Houston, even though they had 24 more shot opportunities than the Rockets in the December meeting. The Suns have scored just a point per possession (their worst mark vs. any opponent) over the three games, and were without Jalen Green for all three. So this will be his first game against his former team.

Week 25: vs. HOU, vs. DAL, @ LAL, @ OKC

Record: 40-38

OffRtg: 116.6 (11) DefRtg: 115.2 (19) NetRtg: +1.5 (15) Pace: 97.2 (28)

The Clippers are heading to the Play-In for the second time, but they basically have a 50/50 shot at finishing eighth (and needing only one Play-In win to make the playoffs) or ninth (and needing two). Their loss to the Blazers on Tuesday sets up an even bigger meeting this coming weekend.

One takeaway

It’s been impressive how the Clippers recovered from a 6-21 start to the season and even stayed afloat after trading James Harden and Ivica Zubac. But they’ve never been able to get back to defending at the level they did last season and have seen the league’s biggest jump in points allowed per 100 possessions. Their opponent shot quality has actually gone down, according to tracking data, but the opponents have still shot better. And rebounding has been a big issue, with the Clippers going from first in defensive rebounding percentage (73.4%) last season to 25th (68.1%) this year.

What to watch for this week

There’s one game this week between two playoff or Play-In teams that are currently within a game of each other, and it’s Clippers-Blazers on Friday. The two teams are currently tied for eighth place, and that game will determine the tie-breaker, either head-to-head in favor of the Clippers (2-1 thus far) or conference record in favor of Portland. Though the Clippers have won two of the three games thus far, the Blazers have outscored them by 27 points (51-24) on fast breaks and by 25 points (57-32) on second chances over the series.

Week 25: vs. DAL, vs. OKC, @ POR, vs. GSW

Record: 43-35

OffRtg: 114.5 (16) DefRtg: 112.3 (7) NetRtg: +2.2 (12) Pace: 99.3 (22)

The Raptors have fallen back into the Play-In group in the East, because they lost (at home) to the Kings last week, getting clobbered on the glass by a familiar face (Precious Achiuwa). They hold the head-to-head tie-breaker with the fifth-place Hawks, but are now two games behind, making it tough for them to climb into a first-round matchup with the fourth-place Cavs (who could move up). And with their loss in Boston on Sunday, the Raptors are now 1-10 against the top three teams in the East.

One takeaway

Whether or not they have to go through the Play-In, the Raptors are still likely to end their three-year playoff drought. They’ve been the league’s fifth most improved team from last season in regard to winning percentage and its third most improved in regard to point differential per 100 possessions (+6.3). They’ve seen the fourth biggest jump in points scored per 100 and the eighth biggest drop in points allowed per 100, thanks to the addition of Brandon Ingram and marked improvement from each of the other four starters. But improved depth has also been critical, and the Raptors have been at their best with reserves on the floor.

What to watch for this week

The Raptors are 6-3 (3-1 at home) against the other three Eastern Conference teams currently in Play-In position: Charlotte, Miami and Orlando. That includes two road wins over the Heat, who will be in Toronto for a two-game set this week. The two games were two of the 12 times the Heat have played slower than 100 possessions per 48 minutes and two of the four times they’ve been held under a point per possession.

Week 25: vs. MIA, vs. MIA, @ NYK, vs. BKN

Record: 43-35

OffRtg: 114.7 (15) DefRtg: 114.9 (17) NetRtg: -0.2 (18) Pace: 100.3 (16)

Joel Embiid has missed two more games after returning from a 13-game absence, and the Sixers continue to have mixed results. They haven’t won or lost more than two straight games since March 1, and they went 1-1 with Embiid last week, blowing a late lead in Miami, but coming back from a double-digit deficit to beat the Wolves. They’re holding onto sixth place in the East, but are just a game ahead of the ninth-place Magic.

One takeaway

The Sixers have the worst record (11-22) in games played between the top 10 teams in the East. They’ve obviously been shorthanded in most of those games, but with their rest-advantage loss in Miami last Monday, they’re also 4-5 within the top 10 with Maxey, George and Embiid all in the lineup.

They’ve scored just 113.3 points per 100 possessions over those nine games and scored just three points on a stretch of 11 straight possessions down the stretch of the Miami loss. They’ve still been better in clutch games (23-17) than they’ve been otherwise (20-18) and currently have the sixth best record in NBA history for a team with a negative point differential.

What to watch for this week

The Sixers probably have an easier remaining schedule than the seventh-place Raptors, but Victor Wembanyama will be in the lineup in San Antonio on Monday, with the Sixers’ worst offensive game of the season having come against the Spurs early last month. Embiid and Wembanyama have faced each other just twice in the latter’s three seasons, and both meetings have been eventful. Embiid scored a career-high 70 points in the first (Jan., 2024) and was ejected in the second quarter of the second (Dec., 2024).

Week 25: @ SAS, @ HOU, @ IND, vs. MIL

Record: 41-37

OffRtg: 115.4 (12) DefRtg: 113.4 (11) NetRtg: +2.1 (13) Pace: 104.4 (1)

The Heat took care of business against the Wizards on Saturday afternoon, but that game was preceded by a 2-8 stretch that has them in 10th place in the East and possibly facing a team (the Magic) that they went 0-5 against in the 9-10 Play-In game. They’ve reached the playoffs through the Play-In in each of the last three years, but that would be a tough path to a seventh straight playoff appearance.

One takeaway

The opponents’ scoring numbers are affected by the pace the Heat play at, but they’ve allowed 130.5 points per 100 possessions over their last five games, their worst stretch of defense this season. That has them outside the top 10 on defense for what would be just the second time in the last 11 years. The Heat rank in the top 10 in opponent effective field goal percentage, opponent free throw rate and defensive rebounding percentage, but they’re 17th in opponent turnover rate and their opponents have committed just 50 (9.7 per 100 possessions) over these last five games. The Heat want to run, but obviously can’t run as often if they’re not getting steals.

What to watch for this week

The Heat lost the tie-breaker with the ninth-place Magic, so their best chance of moving up from 10th could be drawing even with the Hornets. Miami won the season series and Charlotte plays the Celtics, Pistons and Knicks this week. The Heat will play two games in Toronto, having scored less than a point per possession in each of their two losses to the Raptors in December, which came with two of their five highest turnover rates of the season.

Week 25: @ TOR, @ TOR, @ WAS, vs. ATL

Record: 42-36

OffRtg: 114.0 (18) DefRtg: 114.0 (15) NetRtg: +0.0 (17) Pace: 100.4 (15)

Franz Wagner is back after missing 22 games and the Magic have won four of their last six. But they’ve slipped into ninth place in the Eastern Conference and have lost their last two games within the East’s top 10 by a total of 81 points.

One takeaway

They’re still a worse-than-average offensive team, but the Magic are not going to finish in the bottom 10 on that end of the floor for a 14th straight season, having seen the league’s third biggest jump in points scored per 100 possessions from last season. But they’ve seen almost an equal jump in points allowed per 100, having lost their edge on defense. Jalen Suggs has a big on-off differential on that end of the floor and has missed 25 games, but he’s still played 454 more minutes than he did last season. The Magic have seen the league’s biggest drop (by a huge margin) in opponent turnover rate and its fourth biggest jump in opponent field goal percentage in the paint.

What to watch for this week

It’s possible that none of the Magic’s four opponents this week will have anything to play for. The Pistons have already clinched the East, while the Wolves would be locked into sixth place in the West if two Tuesday games (Houston-Phoenix and Minnesota-Indiana) are won by the road teams. Passing three or four teams into fifth or sixth place is unlikely, because the Magic have lost the head-to-head tie-breakers to Atlanta, Philly, Toronto and Charlotte. But just climbing into the 7-8 Play-In game is a huge advantage, because it requires just one win to reach the playoffs for a third straight year.

Week 25: vs. DET, vs. MIN, @ CHI, @ BOS

Record: 40-38

OffRtg: 112.9 (21) DefRtg: 113.5 (13) NetRtg: -0.6 (20) Pace: 101.9 (7)

The Blazers have won eight of their last 10 games to climb two games above .500 for the first time since they were 5-3. It’s been a soft stretch of schedule, but it includes three wins of more than 30 points and a huge road win over the Clippers on Tuesday, setting up another big head-to-head matchup this week.

One takeaway

The Blazers rank first defensively (103.7 points allowed per 100 possessions) over the 8-2 stretch. They’re not one of the league’s 10 most improved defensive teams from last season, but this will be the first time in the last five years that they’ve been better than average on either end of the floor. They’ve allowed just 106.7 points per 100 possessions in 1,174 total minutes with Jrue Holiday on the floor alongside either Donovan Clingan or Robert Williams III.

What to watch for this week

If form holds in the two teams’ other games this week, the Blazers’ game against the Clippers on Friday will be for the 8 seed in the West. The Clippers have won two of the first three meetings, but Portland would hold the conference-record tie-breaker. The Blazers won by 10 when they played each other in L.A. last week, outscoring the Clippers by 18 points (32-14) on second chances.

Week 25: @ DEN, @ SAS, vs. LAC, vs. SAC

Record: 36-42

OffRtg: 113.8 (19) DefRtg: 114.1 (16) NetRtg: -0.3 (19) Pace: 100.3 (17)

Stephen Curry returned from a 27-game absence on Sunday and scored 29 points in just 26 minutes off the bench. The Warriors outscored the Rockets by 12 points in those 26 minutes, but still lost, with Curry unable to connect on a 3-point attempt for the win. The loss guarantees that they’ll have a losing record for just the second time in the last 14 seasons, but Curry gives them a chance to climb out of the Play-In and into the playoffs … while making the Warriors much more entertaining no matter the results.

One takeaway

Sunday was a reminder of how fun the Warriors are with Curry on the floor, and how much his gravity creates easy buckets for everybody else. Even with the loss to the Rockets, they’re 23-17 with him in uniform, including 14-14 against the other 19 teams in playoff or Play-In position. They’ve scored 7.9 more points per 100 possessions with him on the floor (118.1) than they have with him off the floor (110.2), with that being his second biggest on-off differential on offense in the last five seasons.

What to watch for this week

There’s only one way for the Warriors to climb out of 10th place. They would need to go 4-0 and the Clippers would need to go 0-4 this week, with the two teams meeting in L.A. on Sunday afternoon. The first part should be more likely, with the Warriors facing the Kings twice and the shorthanded Lakers in between.

Most likely is that the Clippers take care of business against Dallas on Tuesday and the Warriors use the week to get Curry ramped up and reintegrated. Sunday was the first time he’s played alongside Kristaps Porziņģis.

Week 25: vs. SAC, vs. LAL, @ SAC, @ LAC

Record: 25-53

OffRtg: 109.7 (29) DefRtg: 115.1 (18) NetRtg: -5.4 (23) Pace: 102.6 (4)

Cooper Flagg has scored 96 points over the last two games, and the Mavs played spoiler against the shorthanded Lakers on Sunday. That ties them with two other teams (the Grizzlies and Pelicans) with 25 wins, still 14 fewer than they had when they won the Lottery last year.

One takeaway

Flagg might still not win the Rookie of the Year award, because Kon Knueppel has been that good. But the No. 1 pick has lived up to the hype as a versatile forward who can make plays on both ends of the floor. He’s in the LeBron James mold, in that he’s a downhill attacker who will need to improve his jumper over time. Among 146 players with at least 200 field goal attempts both in and outside the paint, Flagg has the 15th biggest differential between his field goal percentage in the paint (56.4%) and his effective field goal percentage on shots from the outside (41.1%). Surrounding him with shooting should be the way to go, but the Mavs had little of that beyond Klay Thompson and Max Christie, ranking 29th offensively.

What to watch for this summer

The future is Flagg, Dereck Lively II, and another Lottery pick this year, though there’s got to be some concern that Lively has played just 43 games over the last two seasons. The veterans under contract shouldn’t get in the way of Flagg’s development, and the Mavs should want to put as much shooting around their star as possible. But, (after figuring out who’s in charge in the front office) they should obviously see if any trades can put them in a better position two or three years down the line. The most interesting of the vets is Kyrie Irving, who has two more years left on his contract (with a player option for 2027-28) and should be back at 100% in October.

Week 25: @ LAC, @ PHX, @ SAS, vs. CHI

Record: 25-54

OffRtg: 113.0 (20) DefRtg: 117.4 (22) NetRtg: -4.4 (21) Pace: 101.0 (11)

The Pelicans still rank as one of the most improved teams since the All-Star break, but they haven’t been able to play spoiler in the last few weeks, and their eight-game losing streak also includes a loss in Sacramento on Friday. They’ll be sending their Lottery pick to the Hawks or the Bucks, and they’ve got some big questions to answer this summer.

One takeaway

Unsurprisingly, the Pelicans are better with a point guard. They’ve outscored their opponents by 1.3 points per 100 possessions in Dejounte Murray’s 389 minutes on the floor, and their starting lineup with Murray at the point (and Zion Williamson at center) is a plus-15.3 per 100 in its 100 minutes. Murray may not be here beyond the next couple of years, but he can help keep the Pelicans organized while they figure out what to do with their frontline.

What to watch for this summer

The Pels must decide if interim head coach James Borrego should remain on the bench, but what to do with the frontline is the big question for the offseason. They’ve been outscored by 11.0 points per 100 possessions in 711 total minutes with Williamson and Derik Queen on the floor together, and those numbers haven’t been better (minus-13.1 per 100) as they’ve averaged just 6.2 minutes per game together since Queen was moved back to the bench shortly after the All-Star break.

Week 25: vs. UTA, @ BOS, @ MIN

Record: 31-47

OffRtg: 112.2 (25) DefRtg: 118.1 (26) NetRtg: -6.0 (25) Pace: 98.4 (23)

Things have gone from bad to ugly in Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo wants to play, but the Bucks are holding him out. It seems doubtful that their Lottery odds are going to change at this point, and their pick would likely go to Atlanta (with the Bucks getting the Pelicans’ pick) if it landed in the top four.

One takeaway

The Bucks have seen the league’s fourth biggest drop in point differential per 100 possessions from last season. The drop has been bigger in Antetokounmpo’s minutes off the floor, and he’s played only 28% of the team’s total minutes, down from 58% in 2024-25. But they’ve also outscored their opponents by only 4.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, his lowest on-court mark in the last eight seasons. This would be the first time in the last 10 seasons that the Bucks had a losing record (17-19) with Antetokounmpo in uniform.

What to watch for this summer

Antetokounmpo will be offered a contract extension and, if he declines, it will be time for the trade that many have been anticipating for years now. A rebuild will take a long time, because there’s a minimum of young or developing players on the roster. Ryan Rollins is a Most Improved candidate and Ousmane Dieng has taken advantage of the opportunity he’s been afforded since the trade deadline, but the Bucks have gotten a grand total of 178 minutes from rookies or second-year players this season, while every other team has gotten at least 1,100.

If Antetokounmpo does sign the extension, maybe they can get back to being a contender again in the next few years. They’ll have some financial flexibility after next season.

Week 25: @ BKN, @ DET, vs. BKN, @ PHI

Record: 29-49

OffRtg: 112.2 (24) DefRtg: 117.8 (23) NetRtg: -5.5 (24) Pace: 102.9 (3)

For the first time in the last four years, the Bulls are not going to the Eastern Conference Play-In. They were in Play-In position (10th place) at the trade deadline, but sold off more pieces, sending Nikola Vučević to Boston, Coby White to Charlotte and Ayo Dosunmu to Minnesota. They didn’t get any first-round picks in those deals, so their best assets are their own picks, with this year’s selection likely to have a 20% chance of landing in the top four.

One takeaway

Both before and after their deadline deals, the Bulls’ most interesting piece was Matas Buzelis, the 6-8, 21-year-old forward with a ton of athleticism and some intriguing skills. Buzelis took a step forward in his second season, with small increases in scoring efficiency and rebounding percentage, as well as assists and deflections per 36 minutes. But it wasn’t quite the leap some were anticipating and, while the ceiling is high, he hasn’t quite proven himself to be a future franchise cornerstone.

What to watch for this summer

The Bulls have Buzelis, Josh Giddey, their first-round pick, and a ton of cap space, so they should be one of the more interesting teams of the offseason. They could bid on a free agent that fits the Giddey-Buzelis timeline, but might be more likely to use the space to make more trades.

Week 25: @ WAS, @ WAS, vs. ORL, @DAL

Record: 21-58

OffRtg: 110.4 (26) DefRtg: 120.4 (28) NetRtg: -10.0 (29) Pace: 100.2 (18)

Among the bottom 10 teams in the league, the Kings have had the best record (7-11) since March 1, with a couple of wins over teams (the Clippers and Raptors) in the top 20 included. They’ve still seen the league’s third biggest drop in winning percentage and its biggest drop in point differential per 100 possessions from last season. They’re missing the playoffs for the 19th time in the last 20 years, but are in position to finish in the bottom five on both ends of the floor for just the second time in the 30 seasons for which we have play-by-play data.

One takeaway

Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray and Zach LaVine played just 19, 23 and 39 games, respectively, but the Kings were never competitive, even with their veterans in the lineup. They were outscored by an amazing 22.6 points per 100 possessions in 276 minutes with LaVine, Sabonis and DeMar DeRozan on the floor together.

The good news is that the Kings added three rookies who can help them going forward. Maxime Raynaud has averaged 16.9 points (on 59% shooting) and 9.3 rebounds since the All-Star break and could earn some first-team All-Rookie votes. Nique Clifford has seen shooting improvement since the break, and Dylan Cardwell has been one of the best offensive rebounders in the league. The Kings have actually outscored their opponents by 2.3 points per 100 possessions in Clifford and Cardwell’s 517 minutes on the floor together.

What to watch for this summer

DeRozan’s contract for next season is only guaranteed for $10 million, but LaVine (player option), Sabonis, De’Andre Hunter and Malik Monk all have fully guaranteed deals for a combined $140 million. So it will be at least another year before the Kings can really refresh the roster. They will have their own first-round pick this year (last year’s turned into Derik Queen), and they should have no worse than a 45% chance at it landing in the top four.

Week 25: @ GSW, vs. GSW, @ POR

Record: 25-53

OffRtg: 112.8 (22) DefRtg: 117.8 (24) NetRtg: -5.0 (22) Pace: 101.4 (9)

The Grizzlies took a big step backward this season, both on the floor and with the roster. They’ve seen the league’s second biggest drop in winning percentage and its third biggest drop in point differential per 100 possessions. And in February, they dealt Jaren Jackson Jr. (still just 26 years old) for three first-round picks, adding to the collection they got for Desmond Bane last year.

One takeaway

It bears repeating that, on March 16 of last year (less than 13 months ago), the Grizzlies were tied for second place in the West at 43-25 and holding the league’s fourth best point differential (plus-5.9 per 100 possessions). They had the league’s best starting lineup, and the oldest of those five starters was the 26-year-old Bane. But the foundation was, apparently, unsound, and the Grizzlies quickly decided to take multiple steps backwards. Two of those starters are still part of the long-term plan (though Zach Edey’s long-term health is a concern), and the first of the four picks acquired for Bane turned into Cedric Coward, who is another foundational piece.

What to watch for this summer

Ja Morant is still here, with two more years on his contract. The Bane and Jackson trades wouldn’t have happened if the Grizzlies still wanted to build around Morant, but at this point, they probably have to send a pick out in a Morant trade, or at least take on more long-term money. They should have both their own first-round pick and that of the Magic, which could also fall in the Lottery.

Week 25: vs. CLE, @ DEN, @ UTA, @ HOU

Record: 21-58

OffRtg: 112.7 (23) DefRtg: 121.2 (29) NetRtg: -8.6 (27) Pace: 103.1 (2)

The Jazz had some flashes of competitiveness this season, and they made a trade to take a big step forward next year. But there was no intention of making any kind of run at the Play-In, which they’ve now fallen short of in three straight seasons. Jaren Jackson Jr. was shelved after playing just three games and Lauri Markkanen played a career-low 42. The Jazz were 17-25 when Markkanen played and are now 4-33 without him.

One takeaway

The development of Keyonte George may have encouraged the Jazz to make the Jackson trade, knowing they have a backcourt piece to complement what they now have up front. George would be a great Most Improved candidate if he played 12 more games, because he averaged 23.6 points on a true shooting percentage of 60.9%, up from 16.8 on 53.9% last season. The third-year guard saw big jumps in field goal percentage in the paint, mid-range percentage, 3-point percentage, free throw rate and free throw percentage. He’s up for a contract extension this summer and should obviously be a big part of Utah’s future plans.

What to watch for this summer

The Jazz should be the league’s most improved team next season. A starting lineup of George, Ace Bailey, Markkanen, Jackson and Walker Kessler (restricted free agent) would be both huge and talented. They could use some additional shooting, even if they get some with their Lottery pick. It’s protected 1-8, so it’s highly unlikely that they would lose it.

Week 25: @ NOP, vs. MEM, @ LAL

Record: 19-59

OffRtg: 108.5 (30) DefRtg: 118.1 (25) NetRtg: -9.6 (28) Pace: 97.6 (27)

The Nets beat the Wizards on Sunday and have three games left against the Bucks (x 2) and Pacers. So their Lottery odds are still undetermined. But they’re looking good to finish last in offensive efficiency by a healthy margin and in the bottom 10 on both ends of the floor for the 10th time in the 30 seasons for which we have play-by-play data.

One takeaway

While none of the Nets’ five first-round rookies have made it clear that they’re a starting-caliber player, none had a terrible first season, either. Egor Dëmin is the most intriguing of the five, with some flashes of great shooting, and is one of only two rookies who have shot better than 38% on at least 200 attempts from beyond the arc. Nolan Traore, meanwhile, looked much better after some extended time in the G League than he did prior, making some advanced passes. Ben Saraf looks like he belongs, and you can see the 3-and-D path forward for Drake Powell. It’s obviously going to be a huge summer of development for all of them.

What to watch for this summer

The Nets still need a No. 1 guy and are surely hoping he comes via the Draft. They don’t control their first-round pick in 2027 (Houston has swap rights), so there’s no reason for remaining at the bottom of the standings for another year. The easiest improvement to make is going from where they are now to somewhere around .500, but this roster needs more veteran talent (especially in the backcourt) to make that leap. The offense was much better with Michael Porter Jr. on the floor (113.0 points scored per 100 possessions), but that mark is still well below league average.

Week 25: vs. MIL, vs. IND, @ MIL, @ TOR

Record: 18-60

OffRtg: 110.3 (27) DefRtg: 118.3 (27) NetRtg: -8.0 (26) Pace: 101.7 (8)

After losing their first 16 games out of the All-Star break, the Pacers have picked up three wins in the last two weeks. They’re still safely in the bottom three in the league (critical given the protections on their first-round pick), with the worst record in franchise history.

One takeaway

There was a thought that the Pacers could be like the 2019-20 Raptors, a team that lost its best player and another starter, but remained one of the best teams in the East. Nope. The Pacers dealt with injuries from the start of the season and still struggled when they were mostly healthy. They’ve been outscored by 6.9 points per 100 possessions with their three returning starters – Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith and Pascal Siakam – on the floor.

It would have been a more productive season if Johnny Furphy hadn’t suffered a torn ACL in February, but 22-year-old Jarace Walker has shown some development over the last few months. He’s averaged 18.3 points per 36 minutes on a true shooting percentage of 59.4% since Jan. 1, up from 13.5 per 36 on 48.1% through December.

What to watch for this summer

The Pacers’ first-round pick is protected 1-4, so if they finish with one of the three worst records, they’ll have a 52% chance of keeping it. They’ll have Tyrese Haliburton back and a strong, 10-man rotation next season (with the top seven guys all under contract for at least two more years), so there wouldn’t be much pressure for a rookie to produce right away. But it would obviously be nice to have that pick instead of sending it to the Clippers.

Week 25: vs. MIN, @ BKN, vs. PHI, vs. DET

Record: 17-61

OffRtg: 109.9 (28) DefRtg: 121.3 (30) NetRtg: -11.4 (30) Pace: 102.4 (6)

The Wizards are in position to be just the third team in NBA history to win fewer than 20 games in three straight 82-game seasons, joining the Sixers (2013-14 through ’15-16) and Vancouver Grizzlies (1995-96 through ’97-98). Last season’s Wizards were the first team in the 30 years for which we have play-by-play data to rank in the bottom 10 in each of the four factors (effective field goal percentage, free throw rate, turnover rate and rebounding percentage) on both ends of the floor, and this season’s Wizards are close to be the second, currently edging the Jazz for 20th in offensive effective field goal percentage.

One takeaway

The Wizards have the seventh worst point differential (minus-11.6 per game) in NBA history, but that’s slightly better than they were last season. They’ve seen the league’s fifth biggest jump in points scored per 100 possessions, with improvement from their young core. Kyshawn George saw huge jumps in both points and assists per 36 minutes, as well as true shooting percentage. Bub Carrington struggled inside the arc, but saw a big jump in 3-point percentage, and rookie Will Riley has had an intriguing stretch since the All-Star break. The perimeter guys should all fit well alongside Trae Young and Anthony Davis, though the offensive fit with Davis and Alex Sarr is a big question. Still, the bigs have the potential to be a tough duo to score against.

What to watch for this summer

With Young and Davis, the Wizards should be ready to win some games next season. There’s the business of signing Young to a contract extension, and the Wizards will have a 52% chance of landing a top-four pick. They could go shopping for another veteran rotation piece, but should probably keep building and developing their young core in case the Young-and-Davis experiment doesn’t work out.

Week 25: vs. CHI, vs. CHI, vs. MIA, @ CLE