Cleveland's depth showed through in its overtime win vs. Portland on Sunday.
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There are six weeks left in the regular season, which will be 75% complete on Wednesday. As we hit the home stretch, we have some fairly clear tiers among the teams still competing for playoff or SoFi Play-In Tournament spots in each conference …
Eastern Conference
- Tier 1 (7 1/2 games ahead of everybody): Cleveland
- Tier 2 (18-20 losses): Boston and New York, seemingly competing for home-court advantage in the conference semifinals
- Tier 3 (25-26 losses): Milwaukee, Indiana and Detroit. One will get home-court advantage in the first round, while one will get the Knicks or Celtics
- Tier 4 (31-33 losses): Miami, Orlando and Atlanta. The great thing about the Play-In competition is that every spot higher comes with a clear advantage
- Tier 5 (37-42 losses): Chicago, Philadelphia, Brooklyn and Toronto. Anybody want the final spot?
Western Conference
- Tier 1 (10 1/2 games ahead): Oklahoma City
- Tier 2 (21-23 losses): Los Angeles Lakers, Denver, Memphis and Houston. A fun mix of veteran squads and teams on the come-up
- Tier 3 (28-29 losses): LA Clippers, Golden State, Minnesota, Sacramento and Dallas. One of these teams will have a guaranteed playoff spot, while the others will (likely) battle it out in the Play-In
- Tier 4 (33-34 losses): Phoenix, Portland and San Antonio. The Blazers have some momentum, but they would need one of the Tier 3 teams to falter
We could certainly get some mixing of those tiers in the next few weeks. But for now, there are some pretty clear delineations.
There are also a couple of big games West Tier 3 to be played in the next seven days: Kings-Mavs on Monday and Kings-Clippers over the weekend.
Plus-Minus Players of the Week
Teams of the Week
- Make It Last Forever: Cleveland (3-0) — Back on top.
- Something Just Ain’t Right: Orlando (0-3) — The Magic were once 17-9, but have gone 12-24 since then.
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East vs. West
- The West is 177-135 (.567) against the East in interconference games after going 12-7 last week.
Schedule strength through Week 19
- Toughest: 1. Toronto, 2. Minnesota, 3. Washington
- Easiest: 1. Milwaukee, 2. Cleveland, 3. New York
- Schedule strength is based on cumulative opponent record.
* * *
Movement in the Rankings
- High jump of the week: New Orleans (+5)
- Free fall of the week: Orlando (-3)
* * *
Week 20 Team to Watch
- Sacramento — The Kings have won three straight games and are one of five teams (all with 28 or 29 losses) fighting for the final guaranteed playoff spot in the West. They’ll face two of the other four this week, visiting the Mavs on Monday and the Clippers on Sunday. In between, they’ll face the Nuggets and Spurs.
* * *
Previously…
OffRtg: Points scored per 100 possessions (League Rank)
DefRtg: Points allowed per 100 possessions (League Rank)
NetRtg: Point differential per 100 possessions (League Rank)
Pace: Possessions per 48 minutes (League Rank)
The league has averaged 113.2 points scored per 100 possessions and 99.7 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes this season.
NBA.com’s Power Rankings, released every Monday during the season, are just one man’s opinion. If you have an issue with the rankings, or have a question or comment for John Schuhmann, contact him via Bluesky.
Last Week:3↑Record: 50-10
OffRtg: 122.3 (1) DefRtg: 111.1 (7) NetRtg: +11.1 (2) Pace: 100.4 (9)
The Cavs are the first team with 50 wins, have their third double-digit winning streak of the season, and evened the season series with the Celtics with an impressive comeback victory in Boston on Friday.
Three takeaways
- With his 41 points on Friday, Donovan Mitchell has averaged 30.8 points in his 20 regular-season games against the Celtics. That’s the highest scoring average against Boston in NBA history (minimum 10 games), topping the mark of Michael Jordan (30.7 in 56 games). There have been 22 instances where a player scored more than 30 points against the Celtics this season and Mitchell has four of the 22, balancing his scoring among several defenders.
- It’s certainly helped that Hunter is now 25-for-42 (60%) from 3-point range over his eight games with the Cavs. That includes two clutch 3-pointers against Portland on Sunday, with Hunter putting the Cavs ahead for good with a weak-side 3 off a great roll-and-kick feed from Jarrett Allen with 30.8 seconds left in overtime. That win improved the Cavs to 4-0 without Mitchell, who got the day off.
The win over Portland was a brief stop at home, and the Cavs’ schedule will remain road-heavy for the next few weeks. They currently have what would be the fifth-best road record (22-6, .786) in NBA history.
Week 20: @ CHI, vs. MIA, @ CHA, @ MIL
Last Week:1↓Record: 49-11
OffRtg: 118.4 (5) DefRtg: 105.8 (1) NetRtg: +12.6 (1) Pace: 100.6 (7)
The Thunder suffered a brutal collapse (blowing a 24-point, fourth-quarter lead) against the Wolves last Monday, but recovered to go 3-0 on their ensuing road trip.
Three takeaways
- The Thunder scored just seven points on 14 clutch possessions in that loss to Minnesota, but their offense has otherwise been on fire, leading the league in efficiency (127.9 points scored per 100 possessions) since the All-Star break. Jalen Williams scored a career-high 41 points in their win in San Antonio on Sunday and may have rediscovered his 3-point stroke. He’s 18-for-41 (44%) from beyond the arc since the break, up from 34% prior.
- Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein were both in the starting lineup in their first seven games together, and the Thunder have outscored their opponents by 8.5 points per 100 possessions in 97 minutes with both bigs on the floor. But there was a little bit of clunkiness (Holmgren trying to throw lob passes) on offense and Hartenstein came off the bench in Atlanta on Friday. Holmgren then turned his ankle and missed the win in San Antonio.
- The collapse against Minnesota came at the end of a three-game stretch where the Thunder faced a ton of zone defense. According to Synergy tracking, they’ve faced the most zone this season (6.1% of their offensive possessions) and rank fourth in zone efficiency (1.12 points per possession) among the 27 teams that have faced at least 100 total possessions of zone.
The Thunder are 6-2 in games played between the top five teams in the West, set to face the Rockets (2-1), Grizzlies (2-0) and Nuggets (1-1) this week. They have just one rest-disadvantage game remaining on their schedule, and it’s Monday in Houston.
Week 20: vs. HOU, @ MEM, vs. POR, vs. DEN
Last Week:2↓Record: 43-18
OffRtg: 118.7 (3) DefRtg: 110.0 (5) NetRtg: +8.8 (3) Pace: 97.5 (26)
The Celtics lost two straight games for the first time since Christmas, matching their loss total from last season (64-18) when they blew an early, 22-point lead to the Cavs on Friday. But they held off a similar Nuggets comeback on Sunday to remain two games in the loss column ahead of the Knicks for second place in the East.
Three takeaways
- In their first loss to the Cavs (in Cleveland on Dec. 1), the Celtics were without Derrick White and Jaylen Brown. On Friday, they were without Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis, and they’ve had all five of their preferred starters for just 20 of their 61 games. The regular lineup has been outscored by 1.6 points per 100 possessions in its 307 minutes, but when starters aren’t available, one of the league’s best benches is thinner. In the seven-point loss on Friday (when Sam Hauser and Al Horford started), the Celtics were outscored by 33 points in 28.4 minutes with at least one reserve on the floor.
- Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum can certainly beat defenders one-on-one, and the Celtics have had some efficient offensive games with low assist rates. But their offense is seemingly at its best when their stars create advantages, ball movement and open shots off the catch. Their losses to the Pistons and Cavs last week were the fifth and sixth times this season that they had fewer than 40 potential assists, with their 25 potential assists against Cleveland being a season low by a wide margin. (The Pistons and Magic are responsible for four of those six games, in which the Celtics are 3-3.)
- The Celtics only outscored the Nuggets (last in 3-point rate by a wide margin) by six points from beyond the arc on Sunday. But they were also a plus-13 at the free throw line against one of the five teams ahead of them in free throw differential for the season. The Celtics have seen a small drop in free throw rate from last season, but Brown is registering his highest rate (29 attempts per 100 shots from the field) in the last seven years and was 8-for-9 from the line against Denver.
The Celtics are just two (eventful) games into their seven-game homestand, with another marquee matchup on Saturday, when the Lakers make their only visit to TD Garden. The first meeting (in January in L.A.) came with the Celtics’ worst margin of defeat (21 points) this season.
Week 20: vs. POR, vs. PHI, vs. LAL
Last Week:4Record: 38-21
OffRtg: 114.2 (10) DefRtg: 112.6 (13) NetRtg: +1.6 (13) Pace: 98.5 (22)
After losing their first game out of the All-Star break, the Lakers have won six straight, improving to 6-2 with Luka Dončić in uniform.
Three takeaways
- The Lakers’ Friday win over the Clippers was just their sixth (they’re 6-17) in a game they trailed by double-digits and just the second of those six comeback wins coming since mid-November. But they haven’t had to worry much about falling into deep holes lately because they’ve been dominant out of the gates. Over their last 19 games, the Lakers have outscored their opponents by an amazing 34.3 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter, ranking second in first-quarter offense and first in first-quarter defense (by a huge margin) over that stretch.
- The defense has also been strong late in games. Five of the Lakers’ six games during this winning streak have been within five points in the last five minutes, and they’ve allowed just four points on 18 clutch defensive possessions over that stretch. That includes keeping the Clippers scoreless (0-for-8 from the field with five turnovers) on nine clutch possessions over the weekend, with the highlight being LeBron James’ chase-down block (initially called a goaltend) on Kris Dunn.
- With Rui Hachimura out, Dorian Finney-Smith started the two games against the Clippers. The start wasn’t great on Friday, but since he arrived from Brooklyn, the Lakers have been 14.5 points per 100 possessions better with Finney-Smith on the floor (plus-13.9) than they’ve been with him off the floor (minus-0.6). That gives him two of the top five on-off differentials among players who’ve logged at least 500 minutes with a single team.
Largest on-off differential, NetRtg
Player |
Team |
MIN |
On |
Off |
Diff. |
Nikola Jokić |
DEN |
1,984 |
+11.9 |
-10.1 |
22.0 |
S. Gilgeous-Alexander |
OKC |
2,016 |
+17.7 |
+1.0 |
16.7 |
Dorian Finney-Smith |
LAL |
642 |
+13.9 |
-0.6 |
14.5 |
Day’Ron Sharpe |
BKN |
673 |
+3.6 |
-10.0 |
13.6 |
Dorian Finney-Smith |
BKN |
579 |
+3.7 |
-9.4 |
13.1 |
NetRtg = Team’s point differential per 100 possessions
Minimum 500 minutes with the team
Two of the best wins on this 18-4 stretch that the Lakers have been on over the last month and a half were against the Celtics (in Boston) and Knicks (at home). They’ll face both again this week, with their game in Boston on Saturday being the start of a four-game trip that also includes visits to Milwaukee and Denver.
Week 20: vs. NOP, vs. NYK, @ BOS
Last Week:6↑Record: 40-20
OffRtg: 118.7 (4) DefRtg: 114.1 (19) NetRtg: +4.6 (6) Pace: 98.2 (24)
Since getting clobbered in Cleveland and Boston, the Knicks have won three straight games, picking up comeback road wins in Memphis and Miami over the weekend.
Three takeaways
- The Knicks rank 24th offensively (108.5 points scored per 100 possessions) since the All-Star break, having seen pretty big drops in free throw rate and offensive rebounding percentage. The offense has been a little better (113.0 scored per 100) over this three-game winning streak, but it might be a good thing that all three wins were somewhat ugly and that they had to get serious defensively, especially in the second half in Miami on Sunday.
- They’ve still played the third fewest clutch games, but the Knicks are now 16-7 (second best) in games that were within five points in the last five minutes. That includes a 5-0 mark in overtime after some more Jalen Brunson heroics in Miami. Despite the lack of clutch games, Brunson (who’s played in all 23) ranks second in total clutch points (132) and is now 8-for-11 on shots to tie or take the lead in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime. Those eight buckets lead the league, with three players tied for second with six each.
- Mitchell Robinson made his season debut on Friday, playing 26 total minutes on the Knicks’ two-game trip. All of that was in relief of Karl-Anthony Towns, so the two bigs weren’t on the floor together. Robinson had a nice block on a Tyler Herro drive on Sunday, but the Knicks’ defensive rebounding wasn’t great in those 26 minutes.
The Knicks are home for just one game between road trips, though they will have a rest advantage against the Warriors on Tuesday. That’s the first of two meetings in 12 days, with their visit to San Francisco coming at the end of a five-game trip that begins with a back-to-back in L.A.
Week 20: vs. GSW, @ LAL, @ LAC
Last Week:5↓Record: 39-22
OffRtg: 119.1 (2) DefRtg: 113.9 (17) NetRtg: +5.2 (5) Pace: 101.0 (5)
The Nuggets went 2-2 on the four-game trip where they played four of the top six teams in the Eastern Conference, slipping to third place in the West.
Three takeaways
- The Nuggets have alternated wins and losses since the All-Star break, with the difference being almost entirely about the offensive end of the floor. They’ve scored 125.2 points per 100 possessions in the three wins and just 105.4 per 100 in the three losses. Nikola Jokić has scored more efficiently in the losses, but Michael Porter Jr. has an effective field goal percentage of 58.3% in three wins and just 34.4% in the three defeats.
- Turnovers have also been an issue, with the Nuggets committing 16.6 per 100 possessions (sixth most) since the break, up from just 13.9 (11th fewest) prior. Jokić had 22 turnovers over a four-game stretch before their loss in Boston on Sunday.
- With their win in Detroit on Friday, the Nuggets are 11-1 in the second games of back-to-backs. That would be the fourth best no-rest record in NBA history, and their point differential in those games (plus-15.0 per game) would be the best mark ever. Jokić didn’t play in the one loss (Jan. 15 vs. Houston).
The Nuggets split two early-season games against the Thunder, with Peyton Watson (who has missed the last 13 games) sealing their Nov. 6 win by blocking Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the closing seconds. They’ll complete the season series with a back-to-back in Oklahoma City, starting with a matinee on Sunday.
Week 20: vs. SAC, vs. PHX, @ OKC
Last Week:7Record: 34-25
OffRtg: 115.1 (8) DefRtg: 114.1 (20) NetRtg: +0.9 (16) Pace: 100.6 (6)
The Pacers dropped a few games last week and are back in fifth place in the East, with the similarly 34-25 and fourth-place Bucks holding the head-to-head tie-breaker.
Three takeaways
- The Pacers have a top-five offense since Jan. 1, but still need to get some stops to win. With their losses to the Nuggets and Heat last week, they’re 4-15 when they’ve allowed at least 120 points per 100 possessions. They somehow lost to Miami while shooting 21-for-39 (54%) from 3-point range and committing just 10 turnovers.
- They still rank as the league’s sixth most improved defensive team, allowing 3.5 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did in 2023-24. Their defensive numbers have been especially great (103.7 allowed per 100) in 698 minutes with Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner on the floor together.
- Bench minutes haven’t been so great, an issue exacerbated by the absence of Bennedict Mathurin (left wrist sprain) for the last two games. Since the All-Star break, the Pacers have been 46.6 points per 100 possessions better with Turner on the floor (plus-23.9) than they’ve been with him off the floor (minus-22.7).
The Pacers will host the Rockets on Tuesday, having been held to just a point per possession when they lost in Houston (without Nembhard or Aaron Nesmith) before Thanksgiving. They’ll then play six of their next seven games on the road, a stretch that includes two huge games against the Bucks.
Week 20: vs. HOU, @ ATL, @ ATL
Last Week:8Record: 38-22
OffRtg: 117.8 (6) DefRtg: 111.8 (9) NetRtg: +6.0 (4) Pace: 104.3 (1)
The Grizzlies have lost five of their last seven games and are in danger of sliding out of the top four in the West.
Three takeaways
- Each of the Grizzlies’ last five games have been within five points in the last five minutes, with the last three all coming down to the final possession. The Grizzlies rank third in clutch defense (101.1 points allowed per 100 possessions), but couldn’t get the stops they needed to close out the Knicks and Spurs over the weekend. They have the league’s third biggest differential between their record in games that weren’t within five in the last five (25-8, fourth best) and their record in games that were (13-14, 19th).
- Brandon Clarke has shot just 3-for-8 on clutch shots and has nine fouls in less than 35 clutch minutes. But he also has five steals and three blocks in that time, and he made an incredible play (a reverse tip-in) to put the Grizzlies ahead in the final minute of overtime against Phoenix on Tuesday. With Clarke out (having been elbowed in the mouth) for the ends of the two weekend losses, Zach Edey was on the floor down the stretch and opponents took advantage. In drop coverage, Edey allowed a big Jalen Brunson 3-pointer on Friday, and after switching, he fouled De’Aaron Fox on a last-minute 3-point attempt the following night.
- Ja Morant sat out the loss to San Antonio on Saturday, when the Grizzlies fell to 14-9 without their point guard. Morant is just 4-for-32 (worst among 179 players with at least 15 attempts) from 3-point range since the All-Star break and is now registering the worst effective field goal percentage (47.8%) of his career.
The Grizzlies have a tougher remaining schedule (cumulative opponent winning percentage of .524) than the fifth-place Rockets (.499), though the tougher half is late March and April. They’ll play seven of their next 12 games against teams that enter Week 20 with losing records, currently 25-4 (third best) against that group.
Week 20: vs. ATL, vs. OKC, @ DAL, @ NOP
Last Week:9Record: 37-23
OffRtg: 113.4 (15) DefRtg: 109.4 (4) NetRtg: +4.0 (7) Pace: 98.9 (20)
The Rockets are healthy again, though their latest starting lineup (with Fred VanVleet back from an 11-game absence) got off to a rough start against the Kings on Saturday.
Three takeaways
- VanVleet’s return put Jabari Smith Jr. back on the bench, with Amen Thompson remaining in the starting lineup. The Rockets were down 21-9 when they made their first sub on Saturday and the Thompson lineup has now been outscored by 8.4 points per 100 possessions, the third worst mark among 20 lineups that have played at least 200 minutes together.
- VanVleet’s absence hurt when it comes to the possession battle. The Rockets have averaged 3.0 fewer turnovers per 100 possessions than their opponents with VanVleet on the floor, but have averaged 2.3 more per 100 with him off the floor. They’ve still committed fewer total turnovers than their opponents for the season, but have had fewer in only three of their last 15 games.
- The Rockets ranked just 23rd offensively (110.3 points scored per 100 possessions) over VanVleet’s absence. They still (barely) have a better-than-average offense for what would be the first time in the last five seasons.
The Rockets have lost six straight games on the road and now head out on a three-game trip. They’ll have a rest advantage on Monday for the fourth of five meetings with the Thunder.
Week 20: @ OKC, @ IND, @ NOP, vs. NOP
Last Week:10Record: 33-29
OffRtg: 113.6 (13) DefRtg: 110.6 (6) NetRtg: +3.0 (8) Pace: 98.1 (25)
The Wolves got a miraculous (and huge) win in Oklahoma City last week, but still haven’t found much consistency.
Three takeaways
- Over the 29 seasons for which we have play-by-play data (and including playoffs), teams are 5-6,550 when trailing by at least 24 points in the fourth quarter. On Monday, the Wolves became the first team in almost six years to rally from 24 down in the fourth, scoring the last 16 points of regulation in Oklahoma City, and then getting a game-saving block from Anthony Edwards in overtime. Alas, they played two more close games later in the week and lost them both, falling to 16-23 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes.
- After a second-half onslaught (with Julius Randle making his return from a 13-game absence) in Phoenix on Sunday, the Wolves are 17-6 in games that weren’t within five in the last five, with only the Thunder (39-3) and Cavs (31-4) having fewer non-clutch losses. Minnesota is now 33-29 with the point differential (fifth best in the West) of a team that’s 38-24. That’s the league’s biggest difference between a team’s “expected” wins and its actual wins.
- One of those narrow losses came in Utah without Anthony Edwards, who was suspended a game after picking up his 16th technical foul of the season. Edwards seems to believe that he doesn’t get a fair whistle, but he’s drawn fouls on 12% of his drives, the second highest rate (lower than only that of Giannis Antetokounmpo) among 42 players with at least 500 total drives this season.
The Wolves have the Western Conference’s easiest remaining schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage (.438) by a wide margin, and they’re two games into a stretch of six straight against teams with losing records. But their home-road back-to-back on Tuesday and Wednesday is the end of their second (and final) stretch of five games in seven days.
Week 20: vs. PHI, @ CHA, @ MIA, vs. SAS
Last Week:11Record: 32-28
OffRtg: 113.3 (16) DefRtg: 111.6 (8) NetRtg: +1.7 (12) Pace: 99.6 (17)
The Warriors’ five-game winning streak came to a disappointing end in Philadelphia on Saturday, but they’re still 7-1 with Jimmy Butler in the lineup.
Three takeaways
- On Thursday in Orlando, Stephen Curry scored 56 points, tied for the third highest total for any player this season. It was just the second game in the 46 seasons of the 3-point line (Damian Lillard had the first) where a player made at least 12 3-pointers and at least 10 free throws. Two nights later, Curry dunked for the first time in more than six years. He’s averaged 30.4 points on 51/43/90 shooting splits over the nine games since Butler joined the Warriors.
- Curry has led the way, but six other Warriors have averaged double-figures over the five games. Moses Moody seems to be getting comfortable in the starting lineup, having shot 12-for-24 from 3-point range since the break. That takes him to a career-best 38.8% for the season, with Moody having taken more than 60% of his shots (also a career-high rate) from beyond the arc.
The Warriors have 22 games left, 11 at home, 11 on the road, 11 against teams currently above .500, 11 against teams currently below, three with a rest advantage, and three with a rest disadvantage. They’re three games into a stretch where they’re playing 12 of 15 against the Eastern Conference, set to face the Knicks twice in 12 days. One of those rest-disadvantage games is Tuesday at Madison Square Garden.
Week 20: @ CHA, @ NYK, @ BKN, vs. DET
Last Week:12Record: 34-25
OffRtg: 113.7 (12) DefRtg: 111.9 (10) NetRtg: +1.8 (10) Pace: 100.4 (8)
The Bucks have won six of their last seven games and are nine games over .500 for the first time.
Three takeaways
- The Bucks rank third defensively (107.4 points allowed per 100 possessions) since the All-Star break, with their best post-break win coming on Thursday, when they held Denver’s second-ranked offense to just 112 points on 108 possessions. The Nuggets scored 68 points in the paint, but that took 60 field goal attempts and the Bucks managed to defend all those shots without many fouls. Denver recorded its lowest free throw rate of the season.
- Kyle Kuzma now has a worse effective field goal percentage in 10 games with the Bucks (46.1%) than he did in his 32 games with Washington (46.7%), but Milwaukee has outscored its opponents by 11.6 points per 100 possessions in Kuzma’s 103 total minutes alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez. The current starting lineup has still played just 67 minutes together.
- Bench minutes haven’t been bad either, though the Bucks have been without Bobby Portis (league suspension) for their six games since the break. AJ Green and Gary Trent Jr. combined to shoot 14-for-31 (45%) from 3-point range over the Bucks’ three wins last week, and the latter is now at a career-best 42% from beyond the arc for the season.
The Bucks are 0-8 vs. the top three teams in the East, with two games (both at home) remaining against that group. The first of those is Sunday, when they’ll be at a rest disadvantage against the Cavs.
Week 20: @ ATL, vs. DAL, vs. ORL, vs. CLE
Last Week:15↑Record: 34-27
OffRtg: 113.6 (14) DefRtg: 112.1 (11) NetRtg: +1.5 (14) Pace: 100.1 (12)
The Pistons got clobbered by the Nuggets on Friday, but not before they ran their winning streak to eight games with quality wins over the Clippers and Celtics.
Three takeaways
- Those two wins ended losing streaks of 10 games against the Clippers and 12 games against the Celtics, with the last win over LA happening the last time the Pistons made the playoffs (2018-19). They now lead the Heat by five games (four in the loss column) for sixth place and the final guaranteed playoff spot in the East.
- The Pistons rank as the league’s most improved defensive team, allowing 5.9 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did in 2023-24. They held the Nets under 90 points per 100 possessions on Saturday, despite committing a season-high 27 turnovers on the other end of the floor. Over this 9-1 stretch, opponents have shot just 51.9% in the paint, the lowest opponent mark over the last 24 days.
- The Pistons rank second in the percentage of their points (29.5%) that have come from fast breaks (16.7%, first) or second chances (12.8%, 11th), and it’s been in transition where they’ve flourished of late. They’ve averaged 28 fast break points over their last five games, even registering more than the Nuggets (22-21) in their loss on Friday. Denver (20.0) and Detroit (19.1) are averaging the most and second most fast break points for any team in the last six seasons.
The Pistons have still played the fewest games (they’re 10-7) against the West. They’ll play 13 of their next 18 games against the opposite conference, starting with a four-game trip that tips off in Utah. They’ll have rest advantages against the Jazz on Monday and again against the Clippers two nights later.
Week 20: @ UTA, @ LAC, @ GSW, @ POR
Last Week:13↓Record: 32-28
OffRtg: 111.4 (21) DefRtg: 109.2 (3) NetRtg: +2.2 (9) Pace: 98.9 (21)
The Clippers are still hanging on to a top six spot in the West, but they’re 1-5 since the All-Star break.
Three takeaways
- Norman Powell returned from a five-game absence on Sunday, but left late in the first quarter with a hamstring issue. The Clippers got a win without him in Chicago last week, but are now 1-9 since Thanksgiving when Powell hasn’t played (1-8) or logged fewer than 10 minutes.
- The Clippers are one of three teams — the Hornets and Sixers are the others — that rank in the bottom 10 on both ends of the floor since the All-Star break. The bigger drop-off from before the break has been on defense, but with the Pelicans having seen some improvement of late, the Clippers are now the team that’s seen the league’s biggest drop in points scored per 100 possessions (-6.5) from last season.
- Bogdan Bogdanović gave the Clippers a lift off the bench in their win in Chicago, but that came two nights after he shot 1-for-12 from 3-point range in his only start of the season. He has a lower effective field goal percentage in his eight games with LA (46.6%) than he did in 24 games with the Hawks (46.9%). The Clippers’ bench ranks 24th since the trade deadline, down from 13th prior.
After the Clippers visit the Suns on Tuesday, they’ll play 10 of their next 14 games against the Eastern Conference. But one of their most important games left on the schedule is Sunday night, when they host the ninth-place Kings, who they lead by just a half game.
Week 20: @ PHX, vs. DET, vs. NYK, vs. SAC
Last Week:14↓Record: 32-29
OffRtg: 114.5 (9) DefRtg: 113.3 (14) NetRtg: +1.3 (15) Pace: 99.9 (14)
The Mavs are 2-3 since the All-Star break, with the two wins having come by single digits against the Pelicans and Hornets.
Three takeaways
- Though the absence of their three primary bigs would seemingly hurt more on defense, it’s on offense where the Mavs rank just 28th (104.9 points scored per 100 possessions) since the break. They’ve taken care of the ball well and haven’t been terrible from beyond the arc, but the interior offensive numbers have been bad. The Mavs rank in the bottom 10 in field goal percentage in the paint (26th), free throw rate (22nd) and offensive rebounding percentage (30th) since the break.
- There hasn’t been much offense without Kyrie Irving, with the Mavs scoring an anemic 90 points per 100 possessions in his 54 post-break minutes off the floor. Irving got some support from Moses Brown (starting at center on a 10-day contract) on Saturday, but the Mavs had one of their worst defensive games of the season, allowing Milwaukee 132 points on 102 possessions. The Bucks attempted 35 free throws, with Brown, P.J. Washington and Danté Exum combining to commit 12 fouls in less than 49 total minutes on the floor.
- Klay Thompson has been a bright spot, shooting 20-for-40 from 3-point range since the break to climb above 40% for the season. This would be his 10th season (tying him with Kyle Korver for second all-time) of shooting 40% or better on at least 250 3-point attempts.
It’s not a great time for the 10th-place Mavs to be playing one of their biggest games of the season, but they’ll host the ninth-place Kings on Monday. They lost the first two (of only three) meetings, so Sacramento owns the tie-breaker.
Week 20: vs. SAC, @ MIL, vs. MEM, vs. PHX
Last Week:17↑Record: 27-34
OffRtg: 110.9 (24) DefRtg: 114.5 (21) NetRtg: -3.6 (22) Pace: 99.5 (18)
The Blazers continue to impress, winning four straight games before losing to the Cavs in overtime over the weekend.
Two takeaways
- There are eight players with 30-point triple-doubles this season, seven current or former All-Stars and Deni Avdija, who had 30 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists in Cleveland on Sunday. Avdija saw big jumps in both per-36 numbers and efficiency last season (finishing sixth in Most Improved voting) and has, basically, maintained those numbers in his first season in Portland.
- Shaedon Sharpe submitted a dunk-of-the-year entry on his way to a career-high 36 points in Washington on Wednesday. Players with that kind of bounce can sometimes (see Derrick Jones Jr.) be effective on the offensive glass, though while his team ranks third in offensive rebounding percentage, Sharpe (2.6%) ranks just sixth among the 10 Blazers who’ve averaged at least 15 minutes per game. But he did have two big tip-ins to tie the game in Cleveland in the final two minutes of regulation.
The Blazers are playing the three best teams in the league in the span of six days. They’ve lost 15 straight games to the Thunder, with their seven-game trip concluding in Oklahoma City on Friday.
Week 20: @ PHI, @ BOS, @ OKC, vs. DET
Last Week:19↑Record: 31-28
OffRtg: 115.6 (7) DefRtg: 113.9 (15) NetRtg: +1.7 (11) Pace: 99.9 (15)
After getting clobbered by the Warriors in their first game after the All-Star break, the Kings have won three straight, earning an impressive win in Houston on Saturday.
Three takeaways
- The Kings got comfortable wins over the Hornets and Jazz last week, even though their starting lineup was outscored by 15 points in its 20 minutes over the two games. Domantas Sabonis was lost to a hamstring injury in the first two minutes in Houston, but another burly Lithuanian (Jonas Valančiūnas) took his place and the Kings built a 19-3 lead. Valančiūnas finished 15 points, 14 rebounds, four steals and three blocks, making a couple of big defensive plays down the stretch (after that 16-point lead was erased).
- The Kings have scored 117.4 points per 100 possessions (eighth in the league) since the Fox trade, up from 115.2 (seventh) prior, though they haven’t moved up the rankings on that end of the floor. Interestingly, Sabonis has seen a drop in his time of possession, from 8.3% of his minutes on the floor pre-trade to 7.7% since.
The ninth-place Kings have four games remaining in the No. 6-10 tier in the West, and three of them (all on the road) are in the next 11 days. They’re 4-1 (with four straight wins) on the road against the other four teams in that tier, having won an OT thriller in Dallas last month. They’re back at American Airlines Center on Monday and will visit the Clippers (responsible for that one road loss) over the weekend.
Week 20: @ DAL, @ DEN, vs. SAS, @ LAC
Last Week:18Record: 28-31
OffRtg: 111.9 (19) DefRtg: 112.5 (12) NetRtg: -0.7 (17) Pace: 97.0 (28)
The Heat would have their first three-game winning streak since early January if they had held onto a late lead on Sunday.
Three takeaways
- The Heat led the Knicks by as many as 19 points on Sunday and were up 12 with a little more than eight minutes left in regulation, only to see that lead disappear and lose in overtime. They now have five losses in games they’ve led by double-digits in the fourth quarter, with no other team having more than three and eight teams having none.
- Things are going wrong on both ends of the floor when you blow a double-digit lead in less than 12 minutes, but the offense has been particularly brutal (60 points on 79 possessions, 0.66 per) in those five fourth quarters. The Heat have scored a point per possession or less in 12 of their last 17 fourth quarters, with ugly fourth-quarter shooting numbers from most of their rotation (Duncan Robinson is an exception) over that stretch.
- The Heat have two of their best offensive games of the season last week, with wins over the Hawks and Pacers being just the second and third times that they’ve scored more than 130 points per 100 possessions. Davion Mitchell was 7-for-7 from 3-point range over the two games and the Heat have scored a solid 116 points per 100 in his 298 minutes on the floor since he arrived at the trade deadline.
The Heat are just three games into a stretch where they’re playing 14 of 17 at home, but their overtime loss to the Knicks on Sunday was the start of their third (and final) stretch of five games in seven days. They’ll be at a rest disadvantage against the Wizards on Monday night and again against the Bulls over the weekend.
Week 20: vs. WAS, @ CLE, vs. MIN, vs. CHI
Last Week:16↓Record: 29-33
OffRtg: 107.3 (28) DefRtg: 109.1 (2) NetRtg: -1.7 (18) Pace: 96.6 (29)
The Magic still haven’t been able to put it back together, and hope for a Jalen Suggs return is seemingly gone as the 23-year-old is set to have surgery on his left knee.
Three takeaways
- Suggs, Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero have played just 97 total minutes (in six games) together this season. Over the last two seasons, Orlando is 43-26 (.623) when all three have been available and 31-42 (.425) otherwise.
- Before Thursday, the Magic were 22-1 when they scored league-average efficiency (113.2 points per 100 possessions) or better. And they had a strong offensive game (115 on 96) against the Warriors, who ranked second defensively over their first seven games with Jimmy Butler. But Stephen Curry dropped 56 (mostly on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) on the other end of the floor and it was the second straight game in which the Magic’s second-ranked defense got torched.
The Magic could use a win or two as their seven-game homestand concludes with another game against the Raptors and a visit from the Bulls, because their schedule will get tougher (and road-heavy) after that.
Week 20: vs. TOR, vs. CHI, @ MIL
Last Week:20Record: 25-34
OffRtg: 112.3 (17) DefRtg: 114.7 (22) NetRtg: -2.4 (20) Pace: 100.3 (10)
The Spurs are 2-5 since losing Victor Wembanyama at the All-Star break, sliding into the bottom 10 on defense and into 13th place in the Western Conference.
Two takeaways
- Offense was a problem (101.5 points scored per 100 possessions) as the Spurs lost four straight games (including two to the Pelicans), with players not named Keldon Johnson registering an effective field goal percentage of just 43.7%. Even with the offense coming alive over the weekend, Stephon Castle (45.7%), De’Aaron Fox (43%) and Devin Vassell (42.2%) rank 48th, 52nd and 53rd in effective field goal percentage among 58 players with at least 75 post-break field goal attempts.
The Spurs have a busy final six weeks of the season, with Wednesday and Thursday being their final two-day break. Opportunities to play spoiler will come after that, with 14 of their next 20 games against teams currently sporting winning records.
Week 20: vs. BKN, @ SAC, @ MIN
Last Week:22↑Record: 27-33
OffRtg: 111.3 (22) DefRtg: 114.0 (18) NetRtg: -2.7 (21) Pace: 104.0 (2)
The Hawks split their home-and-home set with the Heat, but have lost five of their last six games overall and are six games under .500 for the first time.
Three takeaways
- The Hawks’ win over the Heat last Monday was, statistically, their best defensive game of the season (86 points allowed on 97 possessions). Otherwise, they’ve allowed more than 127 per 100 over this 1-5 stretch. They’ve slid from 13th to 18th on defense over the last three weeks, and this would be the first time in the last five seasons that they were worse than average on both ends of the floor.
- Caris LeVert has come off the bench in all eight games with the Hawks, but he’s played 154 (70%) of his 222 minutes with Trae Young. And Young already has 18 assists to LeVert, just five shy of anybody in the latter’s 38 games with the Cavs (Darius Garland had 23). The Hawks have scored 116.8 points per 100 possessions in those 154 minutes with Young and LeVert on the floor together.
- The Hawks still have a winning record (12-11) against the eight teams ahead of them in the Eastern Conference standings, with two wins each against the top four. The only team in the top eight that they haven’t beat is Indiana (0-1).
They’ll face the Pacers twice on a six-game homestand (their longest of the season) that begins Tuesday with a visit from the Bucks. The Hawks are just 2-8 at State Farm Arena since mid-January.
Week 20: @ MEM, vs. MIL, vs. IND, vs. IND
Last Week:21↓Record: 28-33
OffRtg: 114.0 (11) DefRtg: 116.2 (27) NetRtg: -2.2 (19) Pace: 98.9 (19)
The Suns couldn’t take advantage of their last soft stretch of schedule, and now they’ve begun the gauntlet.
Three takeaways
- The Suns have had the league’s worst defense (121.3 points allowed per 100 possessions), going 3-11 since Feb. 1 while falling to 27th on defense this season. They’re in the middle of the pack in three of the four factors on defense, but are 28th in opponent turnover rate, ranking last (10.5 per 100 possessions) over these last 14 games.
- Related to the lack of forced turnovers … Bol Bol, now in the starting lineup and all arms and legs, averages just 1.0 deflections per 36 minutes, the fourth lowest rate among 374 players who’ve played at least 300 minutes this season. On the other side of the floor, he has a true shooting percentage of 79.8% since the All-Star break, the best mark among 131 players with at least 50 post-break field goal attempts.
- The Suns seem like they’re trying to win games, but are now four games out of the final Play-In spot in the West, with the league’s toughest remaining schedule by a healthy margin. Of course, some of those tough games are against the five teams (with 28 or 29 losses) that they could chase down if they started playing a lot better than they have been.
Beginning with their loss to the Wolves (one of those five teams) on Sunday, the Suns are playing 19 of their final 22 games against teams that currently have winning records. They’re 11-21 against that group thus far, including 0-6 since Feb. 1. The Clippers and Mavs are also in that 6-10 group and the Suns will face them both this week.
Week 20: vs. LAC, @ DEN, @ DAL
Last Week:28↑Record: 17-44
OffRtg: 110.3 (25) DefRtg: 118.0 (29) NetRtg: -7.6 (29) Pace: 100.1 (13)
The Pelicans have shown some signs of life, winning five of their last seven games.
Two takeaways
- The bigger difference between this 5-2 stretch (112.6 points allowed per 100 possessions) and the 10-game losing streak that preceded it (125.3 allowed per 100) has been on defense. But wins in Phoenix and Utah last week were just the seventh and eighth times this season that the Pels have scored more than 125 per 100. Zion Williamson totaled 51 points and 20 assists over the two games (missing the Pelicans’ loss in Phoenix on Friday) and has shot 65% over his last eight, up from 52% prior.
- The Pelicans’ ups and downs over the last two months have been schedule-aided. Going back to early January, they’ve won 10 of their last 14 games against other teams that are currently below .500. They got a win over the Kings in their last game before the All-Star break, but they now have the third biggest differential between their record vs. that bottom-14 group (13-13, .500) and their record against the 16 teams currently above .500 (4-31, .114).
Now it’s time to get back to playing the good teams, with nine of the Pelicans’ next 11 games against the top 16. They’re 0-2 against the Rockets, having allowed 127.9 points per 100 possessions over the two losses and set to complete the season series with two more meetings this week.
Week 20: @ LAL, vs. HOU, @ HOU, vs. MEM
Last Week:23↓Record: 21-39
OffRtg: 108.1 (27) DefRtg: 114.7 (23) NetRtg: -6.6 (26) Pace: 96.5 (30)
After a 7-2 stretch, the Nets have dropped four straight games, with losses to the Wizards and Blazers included.
Three takeaways
- Weirdly, the Nets’ one good offensive game (121 points on 100 possessions) during the losing streak came against the No. 1 defense in the league. With Nic Claxton suspended, Day’Ron Sharpe got the start and scored a career-high 25 points on 8-for-10 from the field and 7-for-7 from the line against the Thunder on Wednesday, when the Nets took 61 (66%) of their 93 shots from 3-point range. That’s the highest rate for any team in a game this season.
- Sharpe has still played just 673 total minutes this season, but will be an interesting restricted free agent this summer. The Nets have now been 13.6 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor (plus-3.6) than they’ve been with him off the floor (minus-10.0), with that being the fourth biggest on-off differential among players who’ve played at least 500 minutes for a single team.
- The Nets’ only two lineups that have played more than 61 minutes include two guys – Dennis Schröder and Dorian Finney-Smith – who were traded in December. Keon Johnson, Cam Johnson, Ziaire Williams and Claxton have started eight of the last 10 games together, but the Nets have been outscored by 16.6 points per 100 possessions (scoring an anemic 89.9 per 100) in 137 total minutes with those four guys all on the floor. Cam Thomas returned from a 40-game, three-month absence on Friday, moving Keon Johnson back to the bench.
Thomas sat out the Nets’ loss in Detroit on Saturday (the second game of a back-to-back), but should be available for all three games this week. The Nets will have a rest advantage in Charlotte on Saturday, having won their first three meetings with the Hornets.
Week 20: @ SAS, vs. GSW, @ CHA
Last Week:27↑Record: 24-37
OffRtg: 112.0 (18) DefRtg: 116.0 (26) NetRtg: -4.0 (23) Pace: 103.4 (3)
The Bulls are still just 6-17 since mid-January, but they won their two most important games last week, blowing out the 11th-place Sixers and edging the 13th-place Raptors in overtime.
Two takeaways
- The Bulls have played their last four games (and are now 3-2) without Nikola Vučević, who’s been rather durable over the course of his career. Zach Collins has started in his place and has shot 24-for-33 (73%) inside the arc (though just 6-for-23 from deep) over his seven games with Chicago. The Bulls have been at their best (plus-12.5 per 100 possessions) with Collins on the floor over that stretch.
- The Bulls have still seen the league’s third biggest drop in clutch winning percentage from last season, but they rank sixth in clutch defense (102.5 points allowed per 100 possessions) and pulled a victory out of their hat on Friday, with Coby White tying the game with a four-point play with four seconds left in regulation. Ayo Dosunmu returned from a three-game absence in that one and was on the floor (instead of Matas Buzelis) down the stretch as Chicago held the Raptors to just 11 points on 18 clutch possessions.
The Bulls are 4-3 against the other three East teams in Play-In position, set to visit the Magic (1-1) and Heat (1-0) this week. Their game in Miami on Saturday is one of six rest-advantage games left on their schedule.
Week 20: vs. CLE, @ ORL, @ MIA
Last Week:24↓Record: 19-42
OffRtg: 109.6 (26) DefRtg: 115.4 (24) NetRtg: -5.7 (25) Pace: 99.8 (16)
The Raptors still have the league’s easiest remaining schedule by a huge margin, but they’re five games out of a Play-In spot, having lost a heartbreaker to the 10th-place Bulls on Friday.
Two takeaways
- The Raptors led that game by 16 early in the fourth quarter and by four in the closing seconds, only to foul Coby White as he drained a 3-pointer, losing in overtime. It was déjà vu all over again two nights later in Orlando, when they blew almost all of a 19-point, fourth-quarter lead and then gave the Magic a chance to tie or take the lead with a backcourt turnover in the final seconds. But Franz Wagner missed a layup and the Raptors improved to 6-14 in games that were within three points in the final minute of the fourth quarter.
- Immanuel Quickley (the guy who fouled White) has now been available for 10 straight games, averaging 18.5 points and 5.4 assists. The Raptors have outscored their opponents by 1.5 points per 100 possessions in Quickley’s 317 minutes on the floor over that stretch, but have been outscored by 20.4 per 100 in his 173 minutes on the bench.
The Raptors are just two games into a stretch of 10 straight against teams with losing records, now 12-10 in games played between the 14 teams currently below .500. After they play a second game in Orlando on Tuesday, they’ll have a four-game homestand that includes their second and third meetings with the Wizards.
Week 20: @ ORL, vs. UTA, vs. WAS
Last Week:25↓Record: 21-38
OffRtg: 111.1 (23) DefRtg: 115.6 (25) NetRtg: -4.5 (24) Pace: 97.5 (27)
The Sixers got some clarity on Joel Embiid, shutting him down for the season (in which he played 19 games) on Friday. They then got a win, halting a nine-game losing streak by surviving a comeback from the Warriors.
Two takeaways
- The Sixers’ game against the 10th-place Bulls last Monday was their biggest opportunity to show that they cared about making the Eastern Conference Play-In and having an opportunity to make the playoffs. And midway through the fourth quarter, they trailed by 50 points. The good news was that the loss came with Paul George’s highest usage rate in February, showing that he was more engaged offensively. He topped that rate two nights later in New York, and hit a big (dagger) shot in the win over Golden State.
- The other good news is that the Sixers seem (at this point) to have won the trade with Dallas that brought them Quentin Grimes, who scored a career-high 44 points on Saturday. Of course, Grimes will need to be paid (he’s a restricted free agent this summer) and Philly has still been outscored by 16 points per 100 possessions (with terrible defensive numbers) in 139 total minutes with Grimes, George and Tyrese Maxey on the floor together.
After the Sixers host Portland on Monday, they’ll play 10 of their next 12 games on the road, where they’re just 2-10 in 2025.
Week 20: vs. POR, @ MIN, @ BOS, vs. UTA
Last Week:26↓Record: 15-45
OffRtg: 111.4 (20) DefRtg: 118.4 (30) NetRtg: -7.0 (27) Pace: 100.2 (11)
With their loss on Sunday, the Jazz were swept in the three-game season series by the 14th-place Pelicans, whom they now trail by a game and a half at the bottom of the Western Conference.
Two takeaways
- The Jazz did get a clutch win over the shorthanded Wolves on Friday, with John Collins deftly assisting Walker Kessler on the game-winning dunk. Utah has still outscored opponents (by 2.8 points per 100 possessions) with Collins and Kessler on the floor together, though that was the only game in the last five in which Collins played and Kessler (though he’s only 23 years old) seems to get almost as many days off as some of the Jazz’s older vets.
- Opponents have shot 54.1% at the rim when Kessler has been there, a solid mark (eighth among 48 players who’ve defended at least 200 shots at the rim), but not quite as good as his first two seasons (51.2%). His 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes are also a big drop from 3.7 per 36 over his first two years, though he’s also committing fewer fouls.
The Pistons and Jazz are tied for the most interconference games remaining on their schedule (13), and they’ll meet in Utah on Monday. That’s the start of a stretch where the Jazz are playing 10 of 12 against the East, with visits to three of the bottom-five teams in the conference coming later in the week.
Week 20: vs. DET, @ WAS, @ TOR, @ PHI
Last Week:30↑Record: 11-48
OffRtg: 105.7 (30) DefRtg: 117.8 (28) NetRtg: -12.1 (30) Pace: 102.2 (4)
The Wizards still have three fewer wins than every other team, but they climbed into double-digits by beating the Nets and Hornets last week. The first of those two wins also put an end to their 27-game, two-year losing streak in the second games of back-to-backs.
Two takeaways
- The two wins last week weren’t pretty, but the Wizards now rank 14th defensively (114.2 points allowed per 100 possessions) since Feb. 1. Their opponents have actually shot better from 3-point range over their 12 games than they did previously, but the the Wizards rank fourth in opponent field goal percentage in the paint (54.0%) since Feb. 1, an improvement from 27th (59.3%) through January.
- They haven’t played a lot, but the Wizards have allowed just 102.5 points per 100 possessions in 166 total minutes with Marcus Smart and/or Khris Middleton on the floor. Richaun Holmes, meanwhile, has been remarkably efficient (shooting 78% from the field) since joining the rotation in late January, starting several games in place of Alex Sarr.
The last-place team in the East and the last-place team in the West have yet to face each other, but they’ll meet twice in the next 17 days. After the Jazz visit Washington on Wednesday, the Wizards will embark on a seven-game trip that concludes in Utah.
Week 20: @ MIA, vs. UTA, @ TOR
Last Week:29↓Record: 14-45
OffRtg: 106.4 (29) DefRtg: 113.9 (16) NetRtg: -7.5 (28) Pace: 98.4 (23)
The Wizards are 7-48 against the rest of the league, but they went 4-0 against the Hornets, completing the season sweep on Saturday. That extended Charlotte’s current losing streak to six games.
Two takeaways
- The good news is that the last two losses have come by a total of only 20 points, with the previous three having come by a total of 131. There’s been some improvement on defense, but the Hornets have scored a paltry 91.5 points per 100 possessions over the last five games overall and have put themselves in danger of falling into the basement in offensive efficiency for the season.
- LaMelo Ball has shot just 11-for-42 (26%) over the three games he’s played during the losing streak, and with their losses at Golden State and Dallas last week, the Hornets are 1-23 without Ball (1-21) or when he’s played fewer than 12 minutes (0-2). Two-way player KJ Simpson started in Ball’s place last week and had just seven assists in more than 66 minutes over the two games.
The Hornets’ loss to Washington on Friday was a start of a five-game homestand, with the next three games coming against teams that rank in the top eight defensively.
Week 20: vs. GSW, vs. MIN, vs. CLE, vs. BKN