Playoff Power Rankings: Where all 16 teams stand at top of first round

Regular-season record: 68-14

OffRtg: 119.2 (3) DefRtg: 106.6 (1) NetRtg: +12.7 (1) Pace: 100.9 (5)

First-round series: Up 1-0 vs. Memphis

The Grizzlies are, statistically, the best No. 8 seed in the 29 seasons for which we have play-by-play data, having outscored their opponents by 4.7 points per 100 possessions (sixth best in the league) in the regular season. In Game 1 on Sunday, the Thunder beat them by 51 points, the fifth-biggest point differential in NBA playoff history.

The case for the Thunder: They had the best point differential in NBA history and the best record (29-10) in games played between the 14 teams that finished above .500. They have home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, but also outscored opponents by 10.5 points per 100 possessions on the road, the best road mark (by a healthy margin) in the 29 seasons for which we have play-by-play data.

The Oklahoma City defense allowed 2.5 fewer points per 100 possessions than any other team, the second biggest differential in those same 29 years. They led the league in opponent turnover rate, but also protected the rim better than any other team. They ranked *second in opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area (63.1%) and *first by a wide margin in the (lowest) percentage of their opponents’ shots (23%) that came in the restricted area.

* Using only road games for these stats to account for shot-location discrepancies from arena to arena.

The case against the Thunder: Their defense can be susceptible on the weak side and on the glass. The Mavs attempted 69 corner 3-pointers and retained 33.7% of available offensive rebounds over the four wins in the conference semifinals last year.

Because they were so good, the Thunder played five fewer clutch games (24) than any other team. So they haven’t built up a ton of late-game reps.

Something to watch in Game 2: 3-point shooting. If you want to nitpick a 51-point win, you can point out that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams combined to shoot 1-for-11 from 3-point range. Williams, in particular, will be in the spotlight if teams try to get the ball out of Gilgeous-Alexander’s hands. The Thunder’s second perimeter star saw big drops in both scoring efficiency and assist/turnover ratio this season.

Next game: Tue. vs. MEM, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Regular-season record: 64-18

OffRtg: 121.0 (1) DefRtg: 111.8 (8) NetRtg: +9.2 (3) Pace: 100.3 (10)

First-round series: Up 1-0 vs. Miami

The Cavs shortened their rotation a bit on Sunday, but Kia Sixth Man of the Year finalist Ty Jerome still had a big role, scoring 28 points on 10-for-15 shooting. The league’s No. 1 offense scored 121 on 88 possessions (137.5 per 100), the most efficient performance for any team over the weekend and for any team against the Heat this season.

The case for the Cavs: When they were winning their first 15 games of the season, the offense looked unsustainable. But it never really slowed down. The Cavs ranked second in both field goal percentage in the paint (60.7%) and 3-point percentage (38.3%), with a league-high eight players who shot the league average (36%) or better on at least 200 3-point attempts. They also finished fourth in turnover rate, having seen the fourth biggest drop from last season, despite playing faster and moving the ball more.

The defense wasn’t as good as it was last season (or the season prior), but it allowed just 113.9 points per 100 possessions (sixth best) in 26 games against other teams in the top 10 offensively. Protecting the rim remains the most important thing defensively, and the Cavs have two guys who can do that at a high level. They were one of two teams (the Thunder were the other) that ranked in the top five in both opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area and the (lowest) percentage of their opponents’ shots that came there.

The case against the Cavs: With the league taking more 3-pointers than ever, every team is susceptible to hot shooting from their opponent. The biggest difference between the Cavs’ wins and losses is how well their opponents’ shot from beyond the arc (34.3% vs. 41.5%), and they will allow the best 3s you can get, with 28% of their opponents’ 3-point attempts (the league’s fourth highest rate) having come from the corners.

Rebounding is the concern they have more control over. Despite their two athletic bigs, the Cavs have had rebounding issues in each of the last two postseasons, and they ranked 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage in the regular season, having seen the league’s fifth biggest drop from last season.

Something to watch in Game 2: Switching onto Tyler Herro. The Heat had a bottom-10 offense in the regular season, but Herro isn’t a bad opening-round test regarding opposing ball-handlers. Max Strus was his primary defender in Game 1, but the Cavs switched ball-screens pretty liberally. The Heat could target Darius Garland a little more going forward, and if the Cavs switch their bigs onto guards, that can compromise their rim protection and rebounding.

Next game: Wed. vs. MIA, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV

Regular-season record: 61-21

OffRtg: 119.5 (2) DefRtg: 110.1 (4) NetRtg: +9.4 (2) Pace: 96.6 (29)

First-round series: Up 1-0 vs. Orlando

The champs looked ready to defend their title on Sunday, holding the Magic under a point per possession and making 16 3-pointers against the team that was the best at limiting attempts from beyond the arc in the regular season. More important is that Jaylen Brown didn’t look limited by the right knee issue that’s been bothering him.

The case for the Celtics: They’re the defending champs, and we can’t forget how relentless they were on both ends of the floor as they went 16-3 in last year’s playoffs. When they’re purposeful about attacking the opponent’s weakest defenders and make the right reads, they’re nearly impossible to stop. On defense, they have no shortage of great stoppers.

The Celtics had the best record (13-5) in games played between the top six teams in the East, having scored 121.8 points per 100 possessions over those 18 games. They’ll have to win some road games in the next two months, but they were a better road team (33-8, plus-9.5 per 100 possessions) than they were last season (27-14, plus-7.7).

The case against the Celtics: It starts with Brown’s knee and the wrist injury that Jayson Tatum suffered in the fourth quarter on Sunday. The Celtics have two days off before Game 2 and should have an extended break before the conference semifinals, but after the first round, teams generally play every other day.

Assuming the Celtics get past Orlando, their remaining opponents’ offenses will put a lot more pressure on Al Horford and Kristaps Porziņģis in the pick-and-roll. And it remains to be seen if this team will have the same possession-to-possession focus that it had a year ago, when it hadn’t won a championship yet.

Something to watch in Game 2: Ball movement. Tatum and Brown can beat you one-on-one, but the Celtics are at their best offensively when their talent creates ball movement and open shots off the catch. That was a slow-paced game on Sunday (87 possessions each), but the Celtics’ 28 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts were tied for the seventh most Orlando has allowed this season. If they can keep the number of catch-and-shoot attempts in that range every game, it’s a good sign.

Next game: Wed. vs. ORL, 7 p.m. ET, TNT

Regular season record: 48-34

OffRtg: 114.2 (16) DefRtg: 111.0 (7) NetRtg: +3.2 (10) Pace: 99.4 (17)

First round series: Up 1-0 vs. Houston

Over their last four regular-season meetings, the Warriors and Rockets combined to score about a point per possession. That was the case in Game 1 on Sunday (180 points on 178 combined possessions), with Stephen Curry (31 on 12-for-19 shooting) making sure that things weren’t so ugly on Golden State’s end of the floor.

The case for the Warriors: After adding Jimmy Butler, the Warriors went 23-8, with a top-10 offense and the league’s top-ranked defense. Curry averaged 27.3 points on a true shooting percentage of 65.5% over that stretch, while Draymond Green cemented himself as a Kia Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

Butler has fit in better than anybody could have expected, and this team has its swagger back. That 23-8 record included an 8-3 mark with both Butler and Curry in uniform against teams that finished over .500.

The case against the Warriors: They needed one more win down the stretch of the regular season to avoid the SoFi Play-In Tournament, and they lost three of their last five games, with all three losses coming at home. As we saw in their April 6 loss to the Rockets, if Curry isn’t scoring, offense can be a real struggle. The Warriors had the league’s third-biggest differential (14.4 points per 100 possessions) between how efficiently they scored in wins vs. losses.

The three best players are all at least 35 years old and must play heavy minutes. With Jonathan Kuminga not in the rotation, the Warriors are lacking athleticism.

Something to watch in Game 2: Rebounding. The Warriors survived on Sunday, despite allowing Houston to grab 22 offensive rebounds, the most they’ve allowed all season. Though the Warriors won the turnover battle (14-17), Houston had 14 more shooting opportunities. They can’t expect the Rockets to shoot so poorly (6-for-29) from 3-point range going forward and will likely need to be better on the glass on Wednesday.

Next game: Wed. @ HOU, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Regular-season record: 49-33

OffRtg: 115.7 (8) DefRtg: 110.8 (6) NetRtg: +5.0 (4) Pace: 98.0 (25)

First-round series: Up 1-0 vs. L.A. Lakers

For the second straight postseason, the Wolves won Game 1 of the first round by more than 20 points. This time, they did it on the road, improving to 7-2 in road playoff games over the last two years. Anthony Edwards flirted with a triple-double, Julius Randle was efficient, Jaden McDaniels couldn’t miss, and Naz Reid provided a huge lift off the bench.

The case for the Wolves: If you believe in point differential over record, this is your team. The Wolves had the point differential (second best in the West) of a team that was 55-27, and they were one of four teams that ranked in the top 10 on both ends of the floor.

Edwards had a terrific postseason (27.6 points per game on a true shooting percentage of 59.8%) a year ago. While the Wolves saw a big drop-off defensively this season, Game 1 in L.A. was a reminder that they can still be stout on that end of the floor.

The case against the Wolves: The other side of the point-differential argument is that the Wolves were 20-26 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes, ranking 20th in clutch offense and 24th in clutch defense. Edwards had more clutch turnovers (15) than assists (13) and his teammates shot 20-for-74 (27%) on clutch 3-pointers.

The league’s eighth-ranked offense can get clunky, even in non-clutch moments. Rudy Gobert can be a liability on that end of the floor, Julius Randle can be a ball-stopper, and Mike Conley wasn’t nearly as effective a shooter as he was last season (though he was much improved after the All-Star break).

Something to watch in Game 2: Free throws. The Wolves shot 21-for-42 from 3-point range on Saturday, so registering their third-lowest free-throw rate of the season (10 FTA / 86 FGA) wasn’t a big deal. They probably won’t shoot so well from beyond the arc again in this series, so continuing to attack the basket (against a team that doesn’t have much rim protection) is important.

Next game: Tue. @ LAL, 10 p.m. ET, TNT

Regular-season record: 52-30

OffRtg: 114.9 (12) DefRtg: 110.3 (5) NetRtg: +4.6 (7) Pace: 99.0 (18)

First-round series: Down 1-0 vs. Golden State

The league’s best offensive rebounding team retained an amazing 47% of available offensive boards on Sunday, but still scored just 85 points on 89 possessions in their loss to the Warriors. Their effective field-goal percentage of 42.5% was their fifth-lowest mark of the season, while their turnover rate (19.1 per 100 possessions) was their 11th highest.

The case for the Rockets: They averaged 5.5 more shooting opportunities (shots from the field or trips to the line) than their opponents, the league’s biggest differential and the fifth biggest for any team in the last 25 seasons. That was mostly because they were the league’s best rebounding team, grabbing 53.3% of available boards. Field-goal percentage is typically lower in the playoffs than it is in the regular season, and more missed shots lead to more available rebounds, giving the best rebounding teams even more of an advantage.

The Rockets managed to protect the basket while also defending the 3-point line. They were the only team that ranked in the top five in both opponent field-goal percentage in the paint (fourth) and (lowest) opponent 3-point rate (third).

The case against the Rockets: Thanks to their 22 offensive rebounds, they had 14 more shooting opportunities than the Warriors on Sunday … and still lost by 10. No matter how many extra chances you get, you still need to put the ball in the basket at some point, and the Rockets ranked 23rd in effective field-goal percentage, with only one player (Dillon Brooks) who shot the league average (36.0%) or better on at least 200 attempts from 3-point range.

Something to watch in Game 2: More shooting? The Rockets need Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green to shoot better than 2-for-17 from 3-point range, but they could also add more shooting to the rotation. Aaron Holiday was their best 3-point shooter this season and has shot 39.5% on 486 attempts from beyond the arc over the last three years. Coach Ime Udoka didn’t trust Holiday to play more than 800 minutes in the regular season (or to play in Game 1), but Houston needs more offense to win this series.

Next game: Wed. vs. GSW, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Regular-season record: 50-32

OffRtg: 118.9 (4) DefRtg: 115.1 (21) NetRtg: +3.8 (9) Pace: 100.7 (8)

First-round series: Up 1-0 vs. LA Clippers

This was the second straight year in which the Nuggets came back from a double-digit deficit to win Game 1 of the first round. They got it done in overtime on Saturday, when Russell Westbrook took more than twice as many clutch shots (he was 3-for-9) than any other player.

The case for the Nuggets: They have the best player in the world, and Nikola Jokić is a matchup advantage against any opponent. He’s the most efficient scorer (true shooting percentage of 63.8%) among the 153 players in NBA history who’ve averaged at least 18 points per game, and he’s one of the best passers of all time. Denver outscored opponents by 11.8 points per 100 possessions when Jokić was on the floor in the regular season, and he averaged almost 40 minutes over the last two postseasons.

The case against the Nuggets: In the previous 28 seasons for which we have play-by-play data, only 13 (4.6%) of the 280 teams that ranked in the bottom 10 defensively won a playoff series … and 10 of those 13 ranked first or second on offense. The Nuggets are the worst defensive team in these playoffs, having taken a big step backward on that end of the floor. Depth is another issue as only seven Nuggets played more than five minutes on Saturday.

Something to watch in Game 2: Will Michael Porter Jr. not playing the final 13 minutes of Game 1 (in which he took just four shots in 26 1/2 minutes) motivate him to be more of a factor on Monday? Does he want to be a part of this team long term? He’s an important piece and a special talent offensively, and the Nuggets probably can’t win this series if he isn’t more of a contributor.

Next game: Mon. vs. LAC, 10 p.m. ET, TNT

Regular-season record: 50-32

OffRtg: 114.3 (15) DefRtg: 109.4 (3) NetRtg: +4.9 (5) Pace: 98.2 (22)

First-round series: Down 1-0 vs. Denver

The Clippers let one get away on Saturday, blowing a 15-point lead and committing five clutch turnovers in their overtime loss in Denver. It ended a streak of 17 straight wins in games they led by more than five points in the fourth quarter.

The case for the Clippers: They had a top-five defense for the season and the league’s No. 1 offense (122.2 points scored per 100 possessions) over their last 21 games. They have multiple guys who can get buckets and the biggest reason for the offensive improvement was Kawhi Leonard. He has been a monster in playoffs past, averaging 29.3 ppg on a true shooting percentage of 63.3% over 60 playoff games from 2017-20.

The case against the Clippers: They had the worst record (8-15) in games played between the top seven teams in the West, having scored just 107.5 points per 100 possessions over those 23 games. And even with their top-five defense, they were dependent on shooting well. They had the league’s biggest difference between their record when they shot the league average (36.0%) or better from 3-point range (39-6) and their record when they shot worse (11-26).

Something to watch in Game 2: Shooting opportunities. Committing nine more turnovers than the Nuggets and also getting beaten on the glass, the Clippers got 13 fewer shooting opportunities (shots from the field or trips to the line) than their opponent on Saturday. That was tied for their second-worst discrepancy of the season, and they’ll need to be better in the possession game on Monday night.

Next game: Mon. @ DEN, 10 p.m. ET, TNT

Regular-season record: 50-32

OffRtg: 115.0 (11) DefRtg: 113.8 (17) NetRtg: +1.2 (14) Pace: 98.3 (20)

First-round series: Down 1-0 vs. Minnesota

The Lakers have lost nine of their last 10 playoff games, having been clobbered by Minnesota in Game 1 on Saturday. Luka Dončić was terrific offensively, but he didn’t get much help. The Wolves’ 117 points on just 88 possessions (133 per 100) was L.A.’s fifth-worst defensive performance of the season.

The case for the Lakers: They have Dončić and LeBron James, as well as a third guy (Austin Reaves) who can make plays and shots at a high level. And while they don’t have great options at the five, the Lakers have size at every other position, allowing them to switch screens and flatten out opposing offenses.

They had the second-best record (16-10) in games played between Western Conference playoff teams. That included a 9-2 mark with Dončić in uniform, with the Lakers scoring 121.4 points per 100 possessions over those 11 games.

The case against the Lakers: The Lakers had a great stretch of defense from mid-January through the end of February. But they ranked 18th on that end of the floor in March and April, finishing as a worse-than-average defensive team for the second time in the last three years. They lack rim protection and were the only playoff team that ranked in the bottom 10 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.

The Lakers were tied (with Phoenix) for the biggest home-road winning percentage differential (31-10 at home vs. 19-22 on the road), and they’ve now lost home-court advantage in this series.

Something to watch in Game 2: Transition defense. While Game 1 was slow-paced, the Wolves scored 25 fast-break points, tied for their second-highest total of the season. Good (and bad) defense starts in transition, and if the Lakers can do a better job of getting back, they can make things much tougher for an offense that can get bogged down in the half-court.

Next game: Tue. vs. MIN, 10 p.m. ET, TNT

Regular-season record: 50-32

OffRtg: 115.4 (9) DefRtg: 113.3 (14) NetRtg: +2.1 (13) Pace: 100.8 (7)

First-round series: Up 1-0 vs. Milwaukee

Tyrese Haliburton shot 0-for-7 from 3-point range on Saturday, and the Pacers still beat the Bucks by 19, holding a top-10 offense to just a point per possession. Myles Turner blocked four shots and the Bucks shot just 13-for-26 in the paint while he was on the floor.

The case for the Pacers: Shorter rotations should benefit a team that had the league’s 16th-ranked bench (14th among playoff teams) and outscored opponents by 13.6 points per 100 possessions in 1,234 total minutes with at least four of its five starters on the floor. This team is a pain in the butt to guard and it somehow ranked third in turnover rate while leading the league in ball movement.

If you dare to look ahead, note that the Pacers had a league-high five wins (they were 5-2) against the top two teams in the East.

The case against the Pacers: They ranked last in the percentage of opponent ball-screens (14%) that they switched, so their defense can be bent, putting them in rotation. As we saw in the 2024 Eastern Conference Finals, Haliburton can and will be targeted on defense. Turner will also be forced to venture away from the basket against ball-handlers (like Damian Lillard) who can shoot.

Something to watch in Game 2: Zone offense. The Pacers scored 14 points on 11 possessions of Milwaukee’s zone on Saturday, per Synergy tracking. But Indiana ranked just 22nd in zone efficiency in the regular season, and zone is a way to limit the ball and player movement. So we could see some more zone from the Bucks (who ranked sixth in total zone) in Game 2.

Next game: Tue. vs. MIL, 7 p.m. ET, TNT

Regular-season record: 51-31

OffRtg: 117.3 (5) DefRtg: 113.3 (13) NetRtg: +4.0 (8) Pace: 97.6 (26)

First-round series: Up 1-0 vs. Detroit

The Knicks still have that playoff magic at Madison Square Garden, with the latest example being a 21-0, fourth-quarter run that turned an eight-point deficit into a 13-point lead in Game 1 against the Pistons. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns did their thing offensively, scoring 36 of their 57 combined points in the second half.

The case for the Knicks: The offense is potent, and it starts with Brunson, who’s now scored 30 points or more in 12 of his last 19 playoff games. He’s near impossible to stay in front of, and if you take the ball out of his hands, the Knicks have other guys who can make plays and make shots. Brunson’s 15-game absence near the end of the season may have been a blessing in disguise, with the Knicks seeing an increase in ball movement and scoring a solid 118.3 points per 100 possessions over the last 10 games of that stretch.

The case against the Knicks: Their two best offensive players — Brunson and Towns — are prime targets for every opponent on the other end of the floor. They were able to get some big stops in the fourth quarter on Saturday, but the Knicks’ defense will continue to be under the microscope. They allowed an amazing 125.5 points per 100 possessions as they went 0-10 against the three best teams in the league in the regular season.

Something to watch in Game 2: Targeting Brunson. In Game 1, the Knicks’ star was the screener’s defender on 16 ball-screens, tied for his third-highest total of the season, according to Second Spectrum tracking. The Pistons scored efficiently (20 points on 15 chances) when they put him into action, and they’ll surely look to do it at least as often in Game 2 on Tuesday.

Next game: Mon. vs. DET, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Regular-season record: 44-38

OffRtg: 114.6 (14) DefRtg: 112.5 (10) NetRtg: +2.1 (12) Pace: 100.3 (11)

First-round series: Down 1-0 vs. New York

After scoring 36 points on 22 possessions in the third quarter (their third most efficient quarter of the season), the Pistons were up eight with a little more than seven minutes left at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. And then the Knicks went on a 21-0 run to take a game in which Detroit committed 21 turnovers.

The case for the Pistons: They can dominate inside. The Pistons were a top-five rebounding team and outscored their opponents by 6.1 points per game, the league’s second-best differential, in the restricted area. They were the better defensive team in this series and ranked fifth in opponent shot quality, per Second Spectrum tracking.

The case against the Pistons: Restricted-area points on Saturday were 48-32 in favor of the Knicks. The Pistons’ meltdown on Saturday was also a reminder that five of their top nine players were playing the first playoff games of their careers. Experience matters.

The Pistons had the worst record (11-25) in games played between the 14 teams that finished the season over .500, and they allowed 118.4 points per 100 possessions as they went 6-14 against the five teams ahead of them in the East.

Something to watch in Game 2: Matchups. Tobias Harris had a terrific offensive game (25 points, 8-for-13 shooting) on Saturday, but he struggled to guard Karl-Anthony Towns one-on-one. Will the Pistons stick with that matchup (and Jalen Duren guarding Josh Hart), or will they switch things up? If they stick with it, will they send double-teams when Harris is guarding Towns in the post?

Next game: Mon. @ NYK, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Regular-season record: 48-34

OffRtg: 115.1 (10) DefRtg: 112.7 (12) NetRtg: +2.4 (11) Pace: 99.9 (14)

First-round series: Down 1-0 vs. Indiana

The Bucks got clobbered in Game 1 on Saturday, when Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 36 points, but had just one assist with five turnovers. The good news is that they’ll reportedly get Damian Lillard back this week.

The case for the Bucks: They were, statistically, a better team than the Pacers and won the season series, 3-1. Lillard is a huge offensive upgrade from Ryan Rollins, and the Bucks outscored Indiana by 14.6 points per 100 possessions in 96 regular-season minutes with both Lillard and Antetokounmpo on the floor together. This team needs as much 3-point shooting as it can get around the Kia MVP finalist, and Lillard is the one guy who can create looks from the perimeter.

The case against the Bucks: We don’t know that Lillard will be at his best when he returns, the Bucks’ defense will take a hit with fewer minutes for Rollins and they still may need a third starter to give them some offensive production if they’re going to keep up with the Pacers. Lillard has had some big clutch moments in the playoffs, but this team ranked 28th in clutch offense, scoring just 101.4 points per 100 possessions with the score within five points in the last five minutes.

Something to watch in Game 2: Transition. Transition points were 26-13 in favor of the Pacers on Saturday, even though Milwaukee had more transition opportunities (20) than Indiana (18), according to Synergy tracking. The Bucks are not a team that forces turnovers (and Indiana isn’t a team that commits them), but they need to find as many easy baskets as possible.

Next game: Tue. @ IND, 7 p.m. ET, TNT

Regular-season record: 41-41

OffRtg: 108.9 (27) DefRtg: 109.1 (2) NetRtg: -0.2 (17) Pace: 96.5 (30)

First-round series: Down 1-0 vs. Boston

The Magic erased a double-digit deficit and led the Celtics at halftime on Sunday, but then scored just 37 points on 45 possessions in the second half. Offensive struggles are no surprise, but Orlando also wasn’t as good as it needed to be defensively, with the Celtics’ 103 points on just 87 possessions marking just the 13th time this season that the Magic have allowed more than 118 per 100.

The case for the Magic: A slow pace and great defense can keep you in many games. The Magic were the best team in the league at preventing 3-point attempts (a league-low 38.5% of their opponents’ shots came from beyond the arc). If they can just make a few 3-pointers of their own, they can win. They were 20-5 (fifth best) when they shot the league average (36.0%) or better from 3-point range.

With his combination of size and skill, Paolo Banchero (36 points on Sunday) is a tough matchup, even for the Celtics, who have great defenders of all shapes and sizes.

The case against the Magic: Their offense scored 4.6 fewer points per 100 possessions than the league average (113.7), the worst offensive differential for any playoff team in the 29 seasons for which we have play-by-play data. Those 25 games of shooting the league average or better from 3-point range were five fewer than any other team this season.

They actually shot better than average (10-for-27, 37%) from deep on Sunday, but the Magic were just 14-for-37 (38%) in the paint, while attempting just 11 free throws.

Something to watch in Game 2: Boston turnovers. That slow pace isn’t a good thing for the Orlando offense. While the Magic took 22.3% (the league’s second-highest rate) of their shots in the last six seconds of the shot clock, they ranked last in effective field goal percentage (43.0%) in the last six seconds. Forcing more live-ball turnovers could get them some earlier shots, but they had just five steals in Game 1, tied for their fifth-lowest total of the season.

Next game: Wed. @ BOS, 7 p.m. ET, TNT

Regular-season record: 48-34

OffRtg: 117.2 (6) DefRtg: 112.6 (11) NetRtg: +4.7 (6) Pace: 103.7 (1)

First-round series: Down 1-0 vs. Oklahoma City

Yikes. The Grizzlies suffered the worst Game 1 defeat in NBA history, and their 80 points on 109 possessions (73.4 per 100) was the third worst offensive performance for any team this season.

The case for the Grizzlies: As noted above, they’re statistically the best No. 8 seed in the 29 seasons for which we have play-by-play data, having outscored their opponents by 4.7 points per 100 possessions in the regular season. They had the best offense in franchise history, scoring 3.5 more points per 100 possessions than the league average. And the Grizzlies outscored their opponents by 15.8 points per 100 possessions in 288 total minutes with their four healthy starters on the floor together.

The case against the Grizzlies: It starts with their first-round opponent, which just might be unbeatable in a seven-game series. The Grizzlies also aren’t the same team that was 35-16 (second in the West) in early February. Only the Mavs, Hornets and Sixers saw bigger drops in point differential per 100 possessions after the All-Star break.

Struggles against good teams were another reason why coach Taylor Jenkins was fired with nine games left in the regular season. The Grizzlies had the league’s biggest differential between their record against the 16 teams that finished at or below .500 (36-9, .800) and their mark against the 14 teams that finished over .500 (12-25, .324).

Something to watch in Game 2: The first quarter and turnovers. Let’s see what kind of fight the Grizzlies have after such an embarrassing loss on Sunday. If they can’t score efficiently against the league’s No. 1 defense, they can at least try to keep the Thunder contained on the other end of the floor. Of course, good defense starts with taking care of the ball, and it would be nice if Memphis could cut its turnover total from Game 1 (24) in half.

Next game: Tue. @ OKC, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Regular-season record: 37-45

OffRtg: 112.4 (21) DefRtg: 112.0 (9) NetRtg: +0.4 (16) Pace: 97.1 (27)

First-round series: Down 1-0 vs. Cleveland

The Heat hung around for about 40 minutes on Sunday, but led for less than 40 seconds in a 21-point loss in Cleveland. Their ninth-ranked defense didn’t hold up against the league’s No. 1 offense, allowing 121 on 88 possessions (137.5 per 100), which was (statistically) their worst defensive performance of the season.

The case for the Heat: They’re not supposed to be here, having needed to win two road SoFi Play-In Tournament games to earn the No. 8 seed for the third straight season. But this team was better, statistically, than the No. 8 seed that went to the 2023 NBA Finals. That team was outscored in the regular season, while this one had the point differential of a team that was 43-39.

The Heat had some success with their double-big look, outscoring opponents by 7.0 points per 100 possessions in 473 regular-season minutes with Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo and rookie Kel’el Ware on the floor together.

The case against the Heat: They have a bottom-10 offense for the third straight season, and it struggled most inside. The Heat ranked 23rd in field-goal percentage in the paint, 24th in free-throw rate and 27th in offensive rebounding percentage.

While they had the league’s ninth-ranked defense overall, the Heat ranked 19th defensively (118.8 points allowed per 100 possessions) in games against the league’s top 10 offenses. They were just 10-28 (worse than seven teams that didn’t make the playoffs) against the 14 teams that finished the season with winning records.

Something to watch in Game 2: Turnovers and rebounds. The Cavs were the third most effective shooting team in NBA history, so the Heat can’t let this particular opponent get more shots than them. But that’s what happened in Game 1, with Miami committing six more turnovers than Cleveland, while also getting beaten on the glass.

Next game: Wed. @ CLE, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV