The Celtics’ Derrick White has averaged over 50 fantasy points in his past three games.
Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate, and a Happy New Year to everyone. I hope your resolutions include some big DFS wins. It’s been a profitable season so far, where we’ve missed out on some big wins by just a few hiccups. That’s all part of the ups and downs, but I’m positive a big cash is coming soon.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a solid six-game slate tonight across four different start times, so there are plenty of options across the board. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
NBA DFS core plays
Jalen Johnson (PF, SF – ATL)
- DraftKings: $10,000
- FanDuel: $10,700
While Trae Young has been out, it’s been the Jalen Johnson show in Atlanta, and I expect that to continue tonight. He has gone over 50 fantasy points in 22 of his last 24 games with a handful of 70+ point efforts. Yet, he’s still priced down more than anything. Toronto isn’t exactly a matchup I’m avoiding, as this game is expected to have the highest possession rate on the main slate.
Despite the Raptors’ solid defense, there will be fantasy points scored. It’s hard to find a better play across the slate here when a barely five-figure player is projected for over 50 fantasy points. I expect Johnson to be highly rostered, but he still makes for a solid cash game and GPP play.
Tyrese Maxey (PG – PHI)
- DraftKings: $9,700
- FanDuel: $10,600
This is more of a two-for-one with Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, as I will be rostering a good handful of both. Denver has taken a bit of a nose-dive defensively, and they are not the same team when having to travel, especially to the East Coast. Maxey has been averaging over 50 fantasy points a night and still comes in under $10,000, which is a treat here, considering he’s gone over 60 DraftKings fantasy points in two of his last three outings, playing high minutes with a near 30% usage rate.
Maxey does have the propensity for a 25- or 32-point effort, making him more of a GPP play. With Embiid, it’s hard to find a center with a higher ceiling. A ton of rostership is going elsewhere at the center spot, but from a pure points standpoint, the 76ers center leads the charge for the position tonight.
Kevin Durant (SG, SF, PF – HOU)
- DraftKings: $8,900
- FanDuel: $9,100
It was between Jaylen Brown and Kevin Durant, but you save about $1,000 with Durant, and they’re projected for around the same amount of points tonight. The future Hall of Famer is coming off a 57-point effort in Dallas and returns home to face his former team.
With no Alperen Sengun, Durant will have to play a more dynamic position tonight. He’s been playing extremely well of late, averaging 48 points a game. That’s right around where I have him projected tonight. Given his positional flexibility on DraftKings, it makes sense that he will be highly rostered tonight.
NBA DFS cash game targets
RJ Barrett (SF, SG – TOR)
- DraftKings: $6,100
- FanDuel: $6,200
There isn’t any one game that jumps off the page to target, but Toronto is in a big pace-up spot on today’s slate. Atlanta comes in as the third fastest-paced team in the NBA with a bottom-half defense. That bottom-half number drops to 24th over their last 10 games. They’ve also allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this year, and RJ Barrett has a nice home bump so far this season.
While the Duke product has yet to surpass 40 fantasy points this season, he has scored fewer than 25 fantasy points just once all season. You can also play Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram, but Barrett projects better at his price. He’s sitting at a nice price for his expected 27 minutes, where his usage rate has been at 28% in his last three healthy games.
Derrick White (PG, SG – BOS)
- DraftKings: $8,000
- FanDuel: $8,500
Derrick White has been a bit rude lately with his play, doing so well that his price has jumped up over $8,000 on both sites. But it makes sense since the Celtics guard has averaged over 50 points a night in three straight games. It helps that one of those games came against the Jazz, but Chicago is in a similar boat as a friendly DFS opponent.
Across the whole season, Chicago has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to all opponents. They are the biggest pace-up spot an opponent could face outside of the Miami Heat, and their road defense ranks in the bottom third of the league, while Boston’s home offense is unmatched. The total is nice and high at 236. With the additional possession rate, I’m happy eating a few extra dollars without exactly breaking the bank.
VJ Edgecombe (SG, SG – PHI)
- DraftKings: $6,700
- FanDuel: $7,200
The Philadelphia rookie has really come into his own recently, scoring 43+ points in three straight outings against some not-so-easy opponents. Joel Embiid’s return has helped space the floor for Philadelphia, and now they face a Denver team sans Nikola Jokić that’s traveling across the country.
The Baylor product has averaged 34 fantasy points per game and has gone over that threshold in seven of his last nine efforts. Denver’s defense has ranked second-worst in the league over its last 10 games, so it makes sense why Philadelphia is a double-digit favorite. I have a lot of love for the 76ers tonight, and VJ Edgecombe is certainly one of them, with his recent consistency and the matchup tonight.
NBA DFS GPP targets
Cade Cunningham (PG – DET)
- DraftKings: $10,500
- FanDuel: $10,800
Cade Cunningham and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander both make for excellent GPP plays as neither is expected to top 10% rostership given their expensive pricing. It feels like Gilgeous-Alexander is playing through a bit of a cold streak, though. He always has the capacity to put up 70 points, but I trust the Pistons guard significantly more tonight.
Three of Cunningham’s last six games have resulted in 60 fantasy points. With how many players are out for the Pistons tonight, Cunningham should see an increase in his already high 31% usage rate. The Oklahoma State product has clear upside here and has a higher likelihood of making the optimal lineup than his rostership currently suggests.
Jaylen Brown (SF, SG – BOS)
- DraftKings: $9,800
- FanDuel: $9,900
I mentioned Jaylen Brown earlier, and while pricing was pushing me off him then, his rostership was shockingly low, making him a clear GPP option. While he is expensive, the Bulls are one of the friendliest fantasy opponents you could ask for.
The Celtics small forward just scored 63 DraftKings points, and I wouldn’t be shocked by a similar result tonight. The Bulls are run and gun, playing shorthanded, in Boston, where Brown and the Celtics get a bump in efficiency. I’m not going to go crazy on playing Brown, but I will be over the field in rostership.
NBA DFS value plays
Paul Reed (C – DET)
- DraftKings: $3,800
- FanDuel: $4,200
With no Jalen Duren and no Tobias Harris, the Detroit frontcourt comes down to one player — Paul Reed. Detroit has quickly become shorthanded, but neither DraftKings nor FanDuel has really boosted the price of the Pistons’ backup center. Reed played 30 minutes last time out and scored 25 fantasy points. He managed 23 DraftKings points in the game before.
Reed is projected for similar production tonight, putting him over 6X return on investment (ROI) at his price. It’s hard to ask for a better punt play on a six-game slate. New York isn’t the best matchup, but given the price and expected playing time, Reed is a clear value play who will be heavily rostered.
Matas Buzelis (PF, SF – CHI)
- DraftKings: $5,900
- FanDuel: $6,400
Matas Buzelis is not exactly the cheapest option, but with the number of players out for Chicago, a lot of players on the Bulls jump up in value. Nikola Vučević and Isaac Okoro also get a bump, but the biggest standout is Buzelis. With no Jalen Smith and no Zach Collins, the Bulls will be forced to go with more Buzelis in the frontcourt.
Buzelis is a dynamic player who has averaged over a one fantasy point per minute and should play over 30 minutes tonight. Boston is a major pace-down spot, but with how fast Chicago already plays, it shouldn’t hurt the possession rate too much. Buzelis makes for a great cash play but can be tossed into GPPs as well, as he does have a ceiling potential of scoring over 50 fantasy points.
Miles McBride (PG, SG – NYK)
- DraftKings: $4,600
- FanDuel: $4,800
With no Josh Hart in the lineup, Miles McBride has averaged around 27 fantasy points a night over his last four games. If we get that number tonight, we have a near 6X ROI at his price. Detroit has been pretty tough with the second-best defense in the league over its last 10 games.
I recommend playing McBride in GPPs since he has the ceiling to score 30 DraftKings points but also the floor for fewer than 20 points on any given night. Still, he’s managed a bump in usage rate since coming back, and his expected 30 or so minutes tonight puts him in a solid spot to return some value.
