Recently crowned Kia NBA Clutch Player of the Year De’Aaron Fox plays the Warriors tonight on the road.
This is going to be a fun one! It’s tough to get a read on those Western Conference matchups because any of the four teams suiting up could be a contender if they can sneak by. With that in mind, let’s get started.
Injury Report
As of 11:30 a.m. ET:
- Draymond Green (suspension) OUT
- Domantas Sabonis (ribs) Questionable
- Ben Simmons (back) OUT
- Paul George (ankle) OUT
- Cameron Payne (back) Questionable
Core Plays
Joel Embiid (PF/C – PHI): $10,700 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
Embiid will be in this section as long as Philly remains in the playoffs. The MVP favorite was one of the league leaders with nearly 60 DraftKings points per game in the regular season. He showed us that in Game 2, collecting 20 points, 19 rebounds, and seven assists. What’s strange is that he only took 11 shots because he should be taking 20-25 shots a game. If that happens, Embiid is the best bet on the board.
De’Aaron Fox (PG – SAC): $9,100 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
This couldn’t be a better matchup for Fox. This is the fastest player in the NBA, and he’s playing the fastest-paced team. That’s the perfect recipe for DFS because it means more possessions and more opportunities. It’s been evident in his head-to-head stats, averaging 49 DK points per game in his five meetings with the Warriors this season. Golden State also allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards, so they shouldn’t limit Fox in this series.
Cash Game Considerations
Stephen Curry (PG – GSW): $9,700 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Chef Curry and the Warriors are slow cooking to start these playoffs, but they’ll have to speed things up here. They’re down 0-2 for the first time in Steph’s career, and that should make him as aggressive as ever. That’s bad news for the Kings because Curry averaged 50 DK points per game in the regular season. Sacramento also ranked 26th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. We expect Curry to play 40 minutes and take at least 20 shots in this must-win game, which means he should be a five-figure player on both sites.
Kawhi Leonard (SF/PF – LAC): $9,500 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Playoff Kawhi is different. This guy always steps his game up in the postseason, averaging over 50 DraftKings points per game in his postseason career. That’s what we’ve seen recently, with Leonard scoring at least 55 fantasy points in the first two games of this series. The Clippers need him to do everything with Paul George sidelined, and he’s happy to oblige.
GPP Targets
Norman Powell (SG/SF – LAC): $4,900 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
The Clippers need Powell to step up if they want the upset in this series. He actually ranks second on the team with a 31% usage rate with PG13 off the floor and needs to take on some of that scoring load. We’ve seen that over the last two weeks, scoring at least 37 DK points in three of his last five games. All you need is 25 fantasy points for Powell to be a good value, and he looks like one of the best options below $5,000.
Jonathan Kuminga (SF/PF – GSW): $4,200 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
This is risky, but we assume Kuminga will step into the starting lineup with Draymond suspended. That’s what we saw in the regular season, with Kuminga regularly playing 25-30 minutes a night when Green was out. In the 21 games that Kuminga cracked 25 minutes, he averaged 29 DraftKings points per game. That would be one of the best per-dollar outputs on that slate if he duplicates it, and he should benefit from Curry and Klay swallowing up all the defense.
Value Plays
Tobias Harris (SF/PF – PHI): $5,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Harris has been a borderline All-Star player in the past, but his fantasy production has been limited because of Embiid, Harden, and Maxey taking all the touches. They’ve decided to switch things up in the postseason so far, with Harris scoring 35 and 42 DK points in the first two playoff games. That’s the stud we saw in the past, and they will capitalize on all of the attention those other studs are receiving by using Harris in favorable matchups.
Malik Monk (PG/SG – DEN): $5,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
The Warriors are a perfect matchup for Monk. The scorer can be limited off the bench against larger teams, but with Golden State playing so much small-ball, Monk is guaranteed a monster role. In their five matchups this season, Monk is maintaining a 25-point average across 29 minutes a night. As long as this guy is playing 30 minutes and taking double-digit shots, Monk should not remain this cheap.
Advantageous Pricing
De’Aaron Fox (PG – SAC): $9,100 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Kawhi Leonard (SF/PF – LAC): $9,500 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Tobias Harris (SF/PF – PHI): $5,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Nic Claxton (C – BKN): $5,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Norman Powell (SG/SF – LAC): $4,900 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Devin Booker (SG – PHX): $8,800 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Kevin Durant (SF – PHX): $9,600 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Chris Paul (PG – PHX): $7,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
Torrey Craig (SF – PHX): $4,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
