The Thursday NBA slate is chock full of great matchups. More than half of the league is in action with eight games on the schedule. Let’s take a look at a few of these matchups and go over our top NBA picks & predictions for Thursday, January 29th.
Thursday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise stated)
Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards
The news that Giannis Antetokounmpo is open to being dealt from Milwaukee has dominated the headlines around this team for the last 24 hours, but with his injury, that news won’t impact this matchup. What will impact this matchup is the loss of Antetokounmpo. With him out of the lineup, Milwaukee struggles to score. And this is a game between two of the worst offenses in the league.
On the season, Milwaukee has one of the best effective field-goal rates (eFG%) in the league, but Antetokounmpo’s ability to score at the rim plays a huge role in that. They’re also the worst offensive rebounding team and rarely get to the free-throw line this season. Washington isn’t much better, as they’re near the bottom of the league in free-throw attempt rate and are a poor shooting team from the floor.
Washington has been one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season, but has played better lately. On the season, they’re giving up 122.3 points per game (PPG) but only 111.8 PPG in their last four. This is a big reason why they’ve gone 6-4 to the under in their last 10 games. With two weak offenses and some improved defensive play, I’ll be playing the under in this primetime matchup.
Pick: Under 224.5 Points (-110)
Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks
Although both of these teams have been known for their offensive prowess in recent years, big changes to the rosters have turned this matchup into a premier defensive battle. Houston has led the way with their defense and rebounding, which sit near the top of almost every measurable metric. Meanwhile, the Hawks are ranked seventh in turnovers forced.
It’s no surprise that both of these teams have trended towards the under in recent games. Houston is 8-2 to the under in their last 10, including easily going under in four of the last five. Atlanta has gone 6-4 to the under in their last 10, particularly when matched up with strong defensive units like Houston.
Atlanta is a strong shooting team, but Houston has the length and athleticism to match up with them. With the way the Rockets can rebound the ball, there won’t be many opportunities for the Hawks to cash in on second-chance points. As strong and efficient as the Rockets are offensively, they’re more than happy to slow things down with their longest offensive possessions in the league. All these trends and stats lead to a strong under play in this game.
Pick: Under 227.5 Points (-110)
Charlotte Hornets at Dallas Mavericks
One of the hottest teams in the league is the Charlotte Hornets. Headed into this game on Thursday against the Mavericks, they’re winners of four straight and are 10-5 against the spread (ATS) in January. However, when it comes to the Hornets being favorites, they’re only 4-4 ATS in that stretch. On Thursday night, they’ll be short favorites again against the Mavericks.
The Mavericks had won four straight games before losing to the Lakers on Saturday. Both Cooper Flagg and Klay Thompson sat out Wednesday’s game versus the Timberwolves but are expected back in the lineup against Charlotte. Despite the back-to-back losses, the Mavericks are still over .500 in January – 7-6 straight up (SU) but 6-7 ATS.
Charlotte has been on fire recently, but that has been mostly as an underdog. As favorites on Thursday in Dallas, they’re being overvalued by the sportsbooks. This Dallas team has been better recently, and with a healthier roster on Thursday at home, I like them to cover. They are also live to pull off the upset outright.
Pick: Mavericks +4 (-110 at Fanatics Sportsbook)