NBA Win Totals have been released at DraftKings and FanDuel, the official sports gaming partners of the NBA. With all the offseason movement and trades of free agency, it’s a fascinating time to get in early on the market before the quiet time of summer sets in and markets start to move.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the Eastern Conference win totals and my initial thoughts, plus two best bets I’m making and my current early projections for next season.
Dallas Mavericks — 39.5 Wins
The Mavericks are hoping to compete in the Western Conference with their defense-first approach along with No.1 overall pick Cooper Flagg until Kyrie Irving can rejoin the team this year or next. In the meantime, they’ll rely on Anthony Davis, PJ Washington, and new point guard D’Angelo Russell to navigate the tough Western Conference.
Matt Moore’s projected wins: 40.3, no bet
Denver Nuggets — 53.5 Wins
The new Denver Nuggets front office understood the assignment: improve the roster, depth, and versatility around Nikola Jokic. With Cameron Johnson in for Michael Porter Jr., along with Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., and hopefully for Denver a trade for Jonas Valanciunas, Denver looks ready to make another serious run at the West crown after taking the champs to seven games.
Matt Moore’s projected wins: 53.8, no bet
Golden State Warriors — 47.5 Wins
The Warriors hope their big offseason acquisition will be a fulll season with Jimmy Butler and for their core of aging legends to stay healthy. The Warriors were dominant with Butler down the stretch of the regular season. Can these old horses make one more run with Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Butler?
Matt Moore’s projected wins: 47.5, no bet
Houston Rockets — 55.5 Wins
Houston, we have liftoff. The Rockets added future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant this summer in the biggest blockbuster move, but don’t overlook their additions of veteran Dorrian Finney-Smith and Clint Capela. Still, this is a high win total and those typically go under historically.
Matt Moore’s projected wins: 52.4, best bet under
Los Angeles Clippers — 46.5 Wins
The Clippers said goodbye to Norman Powell in a cost-saving move, but bolstered their frontcourt with Brook Lopez and John Collins. Whether this older team can stay healthy through 82 and be ready for a playoff run past the first round remains to be seen, even with Kawhi Leonard seemingly healthier than he’s been in years.
Matt Moore’s projected wins: 50.9, no bet (injury concerns)
Los Angeles Lakers — 47.5 Wins
On the surface, the Lakers accomplished their major goal of the offseason, putting a pick-and-roll big next to Luka Doncic. But the rest of the roster feels incomplete, and questions still hover around cryptic comments from LeBron James about his future after picking up his player option for next season.
Matt Moore’s projected wins: 51.2, no bet
Memphis Grizzlies — 40.5 Wins
The Grizzlies take a big hit in the win total department after a disastrous end to their season and the trade of Desmond Bane to Orlando. But this overlooks the kind of young talent they have up and coming with Jaylen Wells and Zach Edey (after he recovers from injury) along with first-round pick Cedric Coward. Is this the bounceback season for Ja Morant or will inconsistency spell an end to his time as the face of the franchise?
Matt Moore’s projected wins: 49.2, Best Bet Over
Minnesota Timberwolves — 50.5 Wins
The Wolves continue to make offseason moves that should sink them, and continue to prove critics wrong by reaching the conference finals. After losing Nickeil Alexander-Walker in free agency, they hope Terrence Shannon Jr. will fill the gap, along with promising center Joan Berenger.
Matt Moore’s projected wins: 53.5, lean over
New Orleans Pelicans — 31.5 Wins
The Pelicans took two rookies in this draft, baffling analysts by giving up an unprotected first to acquire Derik Queen. The Pelicans have a lot of players who could be great, but no one who has proven they can do it consistently for 70-plus games. Will the new front office prove that a new direction was all that was missing?
Matt Moore’s projected wins: 32.1, no bet
Oklahoma City Thunder — 62.5 Wins
The champs retain absolutely everyone from the title run after handing out huge extensions to MVP and Finals MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. The roster will likely look different in two years, but for now, OKC hopes that internal development of their already dominant core and continuity will make them the first team to repeat as champions since 2018.
Matt Moore’s projected wins: 67.7, lean under based on number
Phoenix Suns — 30.5 Wins
The Suns said farewell to the Kevin Durant era in Phoenix after wildly disappointing seasons, and are reportedly nearing a buyout with Bradley Beal. They hope that adding young talent like Khaman Maluach and more time for rookie standout Ryan Dunn will help Devin Booker return to playoff contention.
Matt Moore’s projected wins: 46.5, Best Bet over
Portland Trail Blazers — 33.5 Wins
Portland has a team full of young guys up and down who you love if you’re a hoophead and League Pass obsessive. But they still need to find their driving force to be a playoff team outside of an improving defense. Is Scoot Henderson ready for the leap? Did they find the steal of the draft and a superstar in Hansen Yang? Will they ever trade their veterans? Lots of promise, but lots of questions to answer in Portland.
Matt Moore’s projected wins: 34.0, lean over
Sacramento Kings — 36.5 Wins
The Kings’ big free agency addition was point guard Dennis Schröder, which is curious since they already have Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan as ball-handers. No one seems to know what the new front office’s direction will be but the clock seems to be ticking with Domantas Sabonis’ window of playoff contention and patience.
Matt Moore’s projected wins: 42.9, lean over
San Antonio Spurs — 43.5 Wins
The Spurs didn’t make any big moves to add veteran talent around Victor Wembanyama like last season. Instead they made a few savvy pickups like Luke Kornet and drafted the consensus No.2 player in Dylan Harper, even if it creates a logjam at point guard with De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle. If the Spurs can just get any improvement from their role players along with Wembanyama’s unchartable growth curve, they could be in line for a playoff spot.
Matt Moore’s projected wins: 46.5, lean over
Utah Jazz — 18.5 Wins
Utah didn’t land a top lottery spot, but took superstar potential with Ace Bailey. There’s more talent here than their performance last season showed, with players like Isaiah Collier under the radar. But will the Jazz focus on development or winning this season, and how does that decision impact the possibility of trade talks for Lauri Markkanen?
Matt Moore’s projected wins: 18.2, lean under